• Shares of Australia's PC Gold rise as much as 6.8% to A$1.235, their highest since June 9

• Mineral explorer says it entered into a conditional share purchase agreement to acquire Terracore Gold, securing gold exploration east of the Spring Hill Gold Project

• PC Gold says drilling at Spring Hill Gold Project in Northern Territory continues to deliver strong results from Macau Link Zone and Macau Footwall Zone

• PC2 up 249.3% YTD

(Reporting by Keshav Singh Chundawat in Bengaluru)

• Australian gold stocks rise as much as 1.5% to hit their highest level since June 3

• Sub-index rises for a third straight session

• Bullion prices rose overnight after Iran and the U.S. agreed terms to end their war, easing expectations of higher interest rates [GOL/]

• Northern Star Resources climbs 2.3%, while Dateline Resources jumps 19.2%

• Sub-index down ~11% YTD

(Reporting by Anjali Singh in Bengaluru)

• USD/JPY holding relatively bid again on 160, Asia so far today 160.24-37 EBS

• Seems expected BOJ hike today fully discounted, being shrugged off by market

• EconMin Kiuchi to attend today's meeting, likely pressure Policy Board

• Well known government wants BOJ to be maybe less hawkish than it already is

• Could affect the breadth of the hike and communication on July-September

• Market at large seems more interested on what the Warsh Fed will do tomorrow

• This especially barring surprises from the BOJ, at the Uchida presser after

• With the yen not strengthening at all, FX intervention watch on, post-BOJ?

• Unless there is some sort of action, 161 could be in spec sights

• Massive option expiries tipped at 162.00 and especially 165.00 bull targets

• Massive expiries today to downside - 157.00 $2.2 bln, 157.30-85 $1.2 bln

• 158.00 $2.3 bln too, less above, on 159 $1.3 bln, 160.50-161.00 $858 mln

• JGB-US Treasury rate diffs mixed, in 2s @263, narrower, 10s @185 bps, wider

• Some demand eyed at Tokyo fix as usual but likely quiet later into BOJ

• Related comments , , ,

• And , , , also

• US markets , , ,

• On BOJ/EconMin Kiuchi ,

• On US-Iran , ,

• On US economy , , for more click on [FXBUZ]

USD/JPY:

(Haruya Ida is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• NZD/USD -0.7% from Mon 0.5865 high in wake of initial U.S.-Iran peace deal

• Trump claims deal already signed; Israel says not bound by the agreement

• DJIA closes at record high with Brent crude trading at 3-month lows

• NZD attempt to break above 0.5865 55-DMA fails on first attempt

• NZ Q1 current account due Wed, Q1 GDP Thur (poll +0.9% q/q, +1.1% y/y)

• Range NZ 0.58205-255, support 0.5680 5580, resistance 0.5990-95 0.6012
NZD Hourly Bollinger Study


NZD Daily 55-DMA

(James Connell is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

(Corrects RBA timing in second bullet)

• AUD/USD steady in overnight trading as Iran peace re-calibration continues

• RBA policy meeting outcome 0430 GMT, no change to 4.35% OCR anticipated

• AUD resistance formed 0.7089 Mon, unlikely to break ahead RBA announcement

• Trump says preliminary Iran deal already signed, details still unclear

• Israel states they are not bound by terms of the U.S.-Iran agreement

• Brent crude trading at 3-month lows, U.S. equities pushing record highs

• Overnight range 0.70645-885, support 0.6834, resistance 0.7089 0.7200 0.7283
AUD Hourly Bollinger Study & DXY Daily 55-DMA

(James Connell is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

MUFG Research previews this week's June BoJ meeting.

"The BoJ is expected to raise rates again this week but another Fed rate cut appears unlikely until the end of this year at the earliest. Japanese media reports last week set the stage for the BoJ to hike rates by 25bps this week, and indicated that the BoJ is considering pausing QE tapering from FY2027. A 25bps hike is already fully priced in so is unlikely to trigger a reversal of yen weakness on its own thereby encouraging a further build-up of yen shorts recently. The updated rate guidance is likely to rock the boat either by sticking to a path for further gradual tightening," MUFG notes.

"We expect another hike to be deliver by later this year. One potential source of market volatility will be press conference given that Deputy Governor Uchida will be stepping in for Governor Ueda who is ill. If the yen remains weak, it will keep pressure on Japan to intervene again to provide support. Intervention could prove more effective if energy prices continue to fall and Fed rate hike expectations are pared back," MUFG adds.

• GBP$ a tad firm in NY afternoon, +0.18% at 1.3427; Monday range 1.3460-1.3417

• Early bid on Mideast peace MOU faded near range top; Trump says strait to be reopened

• Israel-Hezbollah hostilities in Lebanon a wild card for peace; Iran nukes to be discussed

• Less-hawkish BoE policy view, UK political uncertainty may temper further GBP$ gains

• For now, pair remains anchored near middle of its 1.33-1.35 range

• GBP$ supt 1.3419/17- 200-DMA/Mon low, 1.3398 falling 10DMA, 1.3325 daily low June 11

• Res 1.3460 Monday high, 1.3487 daily cloud top, 1.3509 daily high May 25

GBP Chart:


(Paul.Spirgel is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• NY opened near 1.1605 after 1.1575 traded overnight, rally extended early-on

• Soft USD, US yields & downward move in oil

buoyed the pair

• Rallies in gold, silver and equities also gave a boost, EUR/USD hit 1.1620

• USD & yields then firmed & gold, silver eroded some gains while USD/CNH moved upward

• EUR/USD erased the early NY gains, hit 1.1597, sat nearby late, the pair was up +0.30% late

• Rising daily RSI, move above the 10-DMA are encouraging tech signs for EUR/USD bulls

• Falling monthly RSI, long upper wick on today's candle could be worries for bulls however
eurusd


(Christopher Romano is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• NY opened near 0.7075, the pair dipped down toward 0.7065 in early trading

• Buyers emerged as USD remained soft while yields , oil fell

• Gold & silver hit fresh session highs and stocks added to overnight gains

• AUD/USD hit 0.7088 then dipped as yields formed, gold & silver gave back some gains

• USD/CNH upward mover & some USD buying helped AUD/UDS near 0.7075 late

• The pair held onto most overnight gains and traded up +0.53% in NY's afternoon

• Move above the daily cloud base & 10-DMA and rising daily RSI gives bulls comfort

• RBA risk looms, rate expected to be unchanged, Bullock's news conference will be key
audusd


(Christopher Romano is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

Morgan Stanley Research previews this week's BoJ and RBA June policy meetings.

"We expect a rate hike to 1.0% at June MPM (June15-16). We also expect the BoJ to maintain JGB purchase amounts from April 2027," MS notes.

"We expect the RBA Board will leave the cash rate on hold at 4.35% at its 16 June meeting, following three consecutive hikes. The statement is still likely to lean hawkish as inflation pressures are broadening and the Board will remain alert to de-anchoring risk," MS adds.

• EUR/GBP meets headwind around 0.8650 after rising from 0.8633 (European morning low)

• 0.8650 was last week's high, on June 8 (0.8620 was two-week low, on June 9-10)

• Burnham set to challenge PM Starmer for Labour leadership if he wins by-election Thursday

• Starmer says child social media ban not linked to leadership pressure

• UK May inflation data due on Wednesday; CPI is forecast at 3.0% YY

• Bardella would halve France's EU net budget contribution if elected French president

EURGBP


(Robert Howard is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

Bank of America Global Research previews this week's June FOMC meeting.

This week's FOMC is one of the more highly anticipated meetings in some time. Not only is it the first under Chair Warsh, but it comes at a time when there's a reasonable case that the Fed's easing bias is likely to be removed. 

"In the FX market, there are 2-way risks to the USD going into the meeting. On one hand, a hawkish surprise seems more likely than a dovish one, given the contrast of the actual data flow with the already entrenched expectations of Warsh's dovish bias. This scenario could serve to further open the top end of Fed pricing distribution and allow the USD to more meaningfully test the top end of its well-established range.

On the other hand, despite Warsh's previously expressed views, the market is already priced for a full hike this year, and nearly an additional one next year. Should Warsh double-down on dovish arguments (see below), and/or if the SEP were to reflect a reluctance of the broader committee to lean hawkish, the USD could retreat further into its range," BofA adds.

(Adds slug) Sterling faces a mixed outlook in the near term as geopolitical optimism clashes with looming domestic political risks and a shifting monetary policy landscape. The pound nudged higher, rising to 1.3460 in Asia session trading, the high end of its recent range, propelled by a sharp improvement in broader market sentiment following the announced, but not yet signed, U.S.-Iran peace deal.

News of the agreement ignited a broad risk-on move. Oil prices fell nearly 5% after President Donald Trump said the Strait of Hormuz will reopen on Friday and that he has ordered an end to the U.S. blockade of Iranian ports.

The repricing compressed global yields, with UK gilt yields tracking U.S. Treasury yields lower, easing fiscal concerns in UK asset markets and lending the pound modest support.

However, domestic political risks, particularly challenges to Prime Minister Keir Starmer's leadership, are a major concern due to worries that it may result in a more free-spending government. Investors still remember the market turbulence caused by former PM Liz Truss's loose fiscal plans, which caused a sharp rise in gilt yields and a substantial GBP/USD selloff. With the Israel-Hezbollah component of the deal still fluid and the UK political landscape opaque, downside risks predominate despite Sunday's peace announcement — a view underscored by the limited rally in currency risk markets since Trump's statement.
Sterling Chart:


(Paul Spirgel is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

Goldman Sachs Research previews this week's June BoJ policy meeting.

"The BoJ looks set to hike by 25bp at its June meeting, continuing with its very gradual pace of tightening...Without a guide towards a faster pace of hikes, markets will remain most focused on the JPY-negative fundamentals of constrained monetary policy, higher-for-longer US yields, US growth outperformance, and domestic fiscal risks," GS notes.

"Overall, we continue to think that if our and market expectations for domestic monetary policy prove correct (i.e., only gradual tightening), it should have relatively limited impact on the Yen relative to the broader macro backdrop and US outlook, keeping the currency on the back-foot," GS adds.

Credit Agricole CIB Research establish a new recommendation to buy Gold.

"We  think that temporary factors related to the war in Iran and its impact on global energy prices have contributed to the recent sell-off in XAU. These factors should fade over time...We conclude that: XAU’s appeal as the ultimate debasement and risk aversion hedge is not necessarily lost. Gold could rebound again once the war in Iran starts to wind down," CACIB notes.

"We recommend buying XAU/USD at USD4338, targeting a bounce to USD5420 in the coming quarters," CACIB adds.

• Risk-on sentiment in place as US & Iran agree to halt war, open Strait of Hormuz

• USD safe-haven bid faded, US yields & oil

moved lower

• AUD/USD rallied away from 0.7036 overnight, pierced the 10-DMA, hit 0.7089

• The pair pulled back slightly, NY opened near 0.7075, was up +0.47% in early NY

• Gold , silver , stocks rallies helped AUD/USD hold onto gains

• AUD/USD's rally stalled near key resistance in the 0.7090-0.7110 zone

• Rising daily RSI, move above 10-DMA, daily cloud base give bulls some comfort

• Monthly RSI still falling & pair still below 21- & 55-DMAs; are concerns for bulls
audusd


(Christopher Romano is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• Shares of copper miners rise premarket, tracking gains in prices of the red metal [MET/L]

• Benchmark copper on London Metal Exchange up 0.5% at $13,767 a ton, as of 0925 GMT

• Copper prices rise as a U.S.-Iran framework agreement to end their war and reopen the Strait of Hormuz eased energy-driven inflation fears and weakened U.S. dollar

• U.S.-listed shares of global mining giants Rio Tinto

up 1% and BHP Group rise 1.2%

• Miners Southern Copper and Freeport-McMoRan

each up 3.8%

• Canada's Hudbay Minerals jumps 4.8%, Ero Copper adds 3.2% and Teck Resources

up 4%

(Reporting by Pooja Menon in Bengaluru)

• U.S.-listed shares of gold miners up premarket, tracking rise in bullion prices [GOL/]

• Spot gold up 2.3% at $4,316.03 per ounce, hitting its highest level since June 9

• Gold prices rise more than 2% after U.S. and Iran officials said they reached an initial agreement to end their war, pushing oil prices lower and easing concerns about inflation and higher interest rates

• Top miners Newmont up 5.1%, Barrick Mining

rises 4%

• South African miners Gold Fields , Harmony Gold , AngloGold Ashanti and Sibanye Stillwater

gain between 8.1% and 10.2%

• Canadian miners Agnico Eagle Mines and Kinross Gold up 6.3% and 5.6%, respectively

(Reporting by Pooja Menon in Bengaluru)

• Markets almost unanimous at 97.3% that Reserve Bank Australia rates will remain unchanged at 4.35% Tuesday

• There's unlikely to be any related AUD/USD volatility according to FX option market pricing

• Overnight expiry implied volatility little changed around the recent 11.0 average - premium/break-even 32 USD pips

• Broader AUD/USD implied volatility is slower to ease than related peers - 1-month 7.35 to 8.25 last week and now 8.0

• AUD/USD is higher as the US/Iran deal weighs USD and risk appetite recovers - reaches new high since June 5 at 0.7088

• Close above 100-dma 0.7085 would aid bulls, but the thickening 0.7065-.7164 daily cloud is resistance

• Massive FX option expiry near the days high - A$1.6 billion 0.7075-85 strikes roll off at 10-am New York cut expiry

• Related - FX market may be underpricing BoJ risk to USD/JPY
AUD=D3 daily chart


Overnight expiry AUD/USD FX option implied volatility


AUD/USD FXO implied volatility


(Richard Pace is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• Overnight FX option expiry includes Tuesday's Bank of Japan policy decision but related USD/JPY premium is very low

• Overnight expiry USD/JPY implied volatility is 12.0 - a premium break even of 79 JPY pips in either direction

• According to Bank of America - 12.0 is 7.5 vols below the long term median average for BoJ pricing

• BoA also note that 12.0 is 0.5 below Aprils BoJ meeting price - itself the lowest price in 4-years (34 meetings)

• Broader JPY implied vol weighed by topside long gamma from 161-162 barriers/triggers and tight spot ranges of late

• US/Iran preliminary peace deal adding further weight as broader FX volatility risk premiums are reduced
Overnight expiry USD/JPY FX option implied volatility


(Richard Pace is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• Cable rose to 1.3460 in Asia as safe-haven dollar weakened on US-Iran peace deal

• 1.3460 is the highest level since June 5 (1.3483 was high that day, pre-NFP data)

• Friday's NY session range was 1.3390-1.3423 (Thursday low was 1.3325)

• First Fed meeting chaired by Warsh this week (Tuesday-Wednesday)

• BoE rate hold expected this week. Bailey defends BoE decision to reduce gilt holdings

• CFTC data: net GBP short rose by 22% to 64,213 contracts in week to June 9

GBPUSD


(Robert Howard is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• FX options expire at 10am New York/15:00 GMT on Monday June 15

• EUR/USD:1.1500 (8BLN), 1.1520-35 (3BLN), 1.1540-50 (1.4BLN), 1.1575-80 (1.4BLN), 1.1600 (1.6BLN)

• 1.1625-30 (1.7BLN), 1.1635-45 (518M)

• USD/CHF: 0.7945-50 (561M). EUR/CHF: 0.9190-0.9200 (1.5BLN)

• EUR/GBP: 0.8615 (500M), 0.8635 (160M). GBP/USD: 1.3360 (290M), 1.3450 (172M), 1.3550 (213M)

• AUD/USD: 0.7050-55 (940M), 0.7075-85 (1.6BLN), 0.7100 (221M), 0.7150 (445M)

• NZD/USD: 0.5825-30 (812M), 0.5850 (206M). USD/CAD: 1.3880 (553M)

• USD/JPY: 159.50 (722M), 159.90-160.00 (1.2BLN), 160.50 (301M), 160.75 (728M), 161.00 (810M)

• AUD/JPY: 112.00 (330M)(Richard Pace is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• AUD/USD +0.6% Mon but extension constrained with RBA meeting underway

• RBA policy meeting outcome due Tue, no change to 4.35% OCR expected

• U.S.-Iran peace deal announcement invigorates bulls across markets

• Gold +2.5%, equities firmer as Brent crude plummets 4.8% in Asia

• AUD sellers towards 0.7121 55-DMA likely to cap topside run pre-RBA

• Range Asia 0.7036-885, support 0.6834, resistance 0.7121 0.7200 0.7283
AUD Daily 55-DMA

(James Connell is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

• GBP/USD rises 0.25% in Asia as risk rallies on Iran peace deal

• U.S., Iran reach preliminary agreement to end war, signing set for Friday

• Trump says deal with Iran complete, authorises opening of Strait of Hormuz

• WTI crude -5.6%, S&P futures +1.1%, Nikkei +5.4%, U.S. 10-yr yield -6 bps

• GBP rallies to 1.3460 from a 1.3419 open, slips to 1.3435 as details sketchy

• Fed, BoE rates, UK May inflation, retail sales, April employment this week

• Makerfield election on June 18 key as UK political uncertainty rises

• UK losing jobs abroad due to high energy costs, manufacturers and union warn

• UK, Japan agree tech partnership and vow fighter jet progress

• Resistance 1.3470-80, 1.3500-10, support 1.3410-20, 1.3380, 1.3350

• Friday range 1.33835-1.3426, Asia 1.3419-1.3460
Latest UK gross domestic product (GDP) growth:

(Krishna Kumar is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)