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Aug 14 - 10:55 AM

Bank of America: Our Quant Signals Raise Some Red Flags for Near-Term JPY Strength

By eFXdata  —  Aug 14 - 10:15 AM

Bank of America Global Research discusses JPY outlook from the latest output of its quant models.

"More than a week has passed since the joint US-Japan FX intervention. So far, the operation appears relatively successful as, compared with previous episodes, investors have been reluctant to fade the rally. Indeed, the authorities' strong commitment and the high cost of failure have strengthened our bullish conviction on the JPY, and we recently revised our YE USDJPY forecast to 149 from 152," BofA notes.

"However, our quant signals raise some red flags for near-term JPY strength. Last week we saw an aggressive mean reversion in JPY skew, and option flow moved strongly in favor of JPY puts vs EUR and AUD, indicating that investors are moderating their worries on further upside. Additionally, our technical matrix has yet to trigger any positioning trend signalswhile up/down vol and residual skew indicate that positioning and short-term sentiment are not yet supportive of the uptrendFinally, our time-zone analysis indicates that JPY buying was not broad-based last week, with USDJPY finding consistent support during US trading hours," BofA adds.

Source:
BofA Global Research

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