Danske Research maintains a structural bearish bias on USD/JPY.

"The backdrop has shifted in favour of a stronger JPY. A more hawkish BoJ, a meaningful repricing of the rate differential, and growing evidence of carry-trade unwinding have all been supportive of the JPY. While the near-term trajectory may admittedly remain more uncertain amid elevated energy prices, we think the structural case for USD/JPY to trend lower over a 12M horizon remains compelling," Danske notes.

"It rests on a convergence of forces – BoJ tightening, the Fed likely being closer to its peak than the BoJ, carry-trade unwinding, repatriation flows, and eventual normalization of energy prices – several of which are already in motion," Danske adds.

• AUD/USD -1.1% from Wed 0.7117 high as DXY surges to fresh 101.23 8-week high

• AU Aug employment 0130 GMT, poll consensus: +20k jobs, 4.5% unemployment

• Simultaneous breaks below 55-DMA & 0.7073 100-DMA a very bearish signal

• AUD now targeting 0.6920 support zone with 18-month uptrend at risk

• Futures pricing now implies 68.6% chance of Fed rate hike Oct 28

• Iran says still far apart in peace talks with U.S., Brent crude +4.3%

• RBA monetary policy meeting outcome due Tue, 25 bps hike priced in

• Overnight range 0.70265-94 support 0.6920 0.6865, resistance 0.7282 0.7661
AUD Daily 21/55/100-DMA


DXY Daily 55/100/200-DMA

(James Connell is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

• GBP$ soft in NY afternoon trading -0.89% at 1.3226; Wednesday range 1.3346-1.3224

• USD haven bid gaining momentum on rising UST yields and higher oil

• UK 10-yr gilt still below recent high 5.44%, but 15bp range adds to UK fiscal concerns

• High UK rate outlook amid high oil, inflation and low growth conspiring ag GBP bulls

• Sellers may run out of gas, STIR futures indicate BoE hikes in 2027 to outpace Fed

• Still, next month's UK Autumn Budget poses fiscal risks for Burnham

• GBP$ supt 1.3224 Wednesday low, 1.3200 big-figure support, 1.3140 Jun 24 low

• Res 1.3268 falling 10-HMA, 1.3400 psychological lvl, 1.3345 daily high Sept 23

GBP$ Chart:

(Paul.Spirgel is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• NY opened near 0.7080 after 0.7117 traded overnight, drop extended in NY

• Sharp US yield gains drove significant US dollar buying

• USD/CNH gains, drops in gold, silver, copper, stocks reinforced the USD bid

• AUD/USD fell away from the 55-DMA, broke the 50% Fibo of the 0.6867-0.7238 rally

• The pair hit a 1-1/2-month low of 0.7027 & sat nearby late, was down -1.18%

• Falling daily, monthly RSIs, September monthly inverted hammer are bear signals

• Pair's hold below the 10-, 21- & 55-DMAs reinforce the bearish signals

• Completion of consolidation of drop from Sep. 9 high adds to bearish sentiment

• Australia's August employment report is a key risk in Asia trading hours
audusd

(Christopher Romano is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

JP Morgan stays sidelined on EUR/USD in the near-term.

"Conviction still remains pretty muted out there but certainly feels like the market is getting long USD as we near the end of the month; looking at flows SHFs are on a strong 5 streak since the Fed while RM have bought 10 of the last 11 sessions, DHF are more mixed but the options market has been quite noisy with EURUSD downside this week," JPM notes.

"Still struggle to chase as we are painting the other side of a frustrating range with a very murky outlook," JPM adds.

(Updates)

• Shares of gold miners fall, tracking decline in bullion prices [GOL/]

• Spot gold down 1.9% at $4,278.10/ounce as hawkish Fed signals bolstered rate-hike expectations, powering the US dollar and weighing on non-yielding bullion

• Dollar at a two-month high makes greenback-priced bullion more expensive for holders in other currencies [USD/]

• Top miners Newmont and Barrick Mining lose 4.2% and 3.5%, respectively

• South African miners Gold Fields , AngloGold Ashanti , Harmony Gold and Sibanye Stillwater

drop between 5.8% and 8.1% each

• Canadian miners: Agnico Eagle Mines dips 4%; Kinross Gold falls 4.2%

(Reporting by Pooja Menon in Bengaluru)

MUFG Research sees a scope for further EUR/USD decline on technical-basis.

"Technically, the backdrop for EUR/USD also does not look good. The trendline support from the intra-day low in February 2025 (when Trump first started to announce his tariff policies) and the intra-day low on 28^th July has been under threat in recent trading days but yesterday broke more substantially below that trendline and signals an extension of the move lower over the coming days.

"EUR/USD 25d risk-reversals all dropped sharply yesterday indicating a shift in sentiment as EUR/USD breaks key levels," MUFG notes

AUD/USD is under significant pressure, having hit a 1-1/2-month low on Wednesday, with further downside possible as the U.S. dollar stays firm on expectations that rising energy prices could push the Fed to hike rates more aggressively than the central bank currently projects.

This dollar strength is being driven by diesel prices, which last week traded at their highest level since April 2022, fueling concerns that inflation will run hotter than expected and force additional rate hikes—not just from the Fed but from central banks globally. Broad-based rate hikes threaten to slow global economic growth, which is particularly concerning for Australia given its heavy reliance on global growth dynamics, and this growing risk of a slowdown is helping drag AUD/USD lower.

Technical indicators are reinforcing this bearish outlook. The pair has completed its consolidation phase following the drop from the September 9 daily high, and today's break lower signals resumption of that downtrend.

Adding to the bearish case, AUD/USD has broken below its 55-day moving average, compounding existing negative signals including its position below the 10- and 21-day moving averages, downward momentum shown in daily and monthly RSIs, and September's inverted hammer candle on the monthly chart.

The pair is now approaching the 50% Fibonacci retracement of the 0.6867-0.7238 rally, and a break below this level could intensify selling pressure. Should that occur, AUD/USD may fall further below its 200-day moving average and potentially test June's monthly low.
audusd

(Christopher Romano is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

Bank of America Global Research previews tommorrow's September SNN policy meeting.

"We expect the SNB to leave the policy rate unchanged at 0% this week. We also expect the reference to FX interventions in the policy statement to remain unchanged, signalling an "increased readiness to intervene in foreign exchange markets."," BofA notes.

There is a risk that the SNB drops the narrative on CHF in order to leverage FX overvaluation as a means to insulate the economy from global energy prices. We do not think that dropping the reference to FX will be positive for CHF. The backdrop remains conducive to vol adjusted carry trades and the emergence of the BoJ from ultra-low rates means CHF has become the natural funding currency in G10. Any bounce on dropping of the FX language should be used as an opportunity to sell CHF," BofA adds.

ANZ Research maintains a constructive bias on EUR/USD into year-end.

"The key question for Q4 is whether stronger domestic demand can offset a weakening external backdrop. The euro area’s January-July trade surplus narrowed to from same time a year earlier. While the EU-US trade agreement leaves most EU exports facing a 15% US tariff, limiting the scope for a sustained export recovery," ANZ notes.

"On balance, we maintain our 1.17 forecast for EUR/USD. With gains from the current level likely to depend more on euro area growth resilience and USD weakness than ECB repricing," ANZ adds.

• 0.7117-0.7076 traded overnight, NY opened near that low, down -0.52%

• Broad-based USD buying, firm shorter-end US yields

weighed

• Drops in gold, silver & rally in USD/CNH reinforced the USD buying theme

• AUD/USD fell below the 55-DMA, neared the September 16 daily low

• Techs lean bearish; RSIs falling, consolidation of drop from Sep 9 high persists

• September's monthly inverted hammer candle reinforces the bearish signals

• US September S&P Global PMIs are data risks in NY's morning
audusd

(Christopher Romano is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• US-listed shares of gold miners down premarket, tracking decline in bullion prices [GOL/]

• Spot gold down 1.1% at $4,315.27/ounce, pressured by stronger US dollar and hawkish remarks from Federal Reserve officials that reinforced expectations of tighter monetary policy

• Top miners Newmont and Barrick Mining

each down 1.8%

• South African miners Gold Fields , AngloGold Ashanti , Harmony Gold and Sibanye Stillwater

drops between 3.6% and 5.5%

• Canadian miners: Agnico Eagle Mines dips marginally; Kinross Gold falls 2.1%

(Reporting by Pooja Menon in Bengaluru)

• Cable holds below 1.3322 (Tuesday low) following its drop to 1.3294

• 1.3294 is the lowest level since July 28 (1.3274 was the low that day)

• Drop to 1.3294 fuelled by dollar buying (USD index at two-month high)

• Dollar supported by coin toss risk of another Fed hike in October

• UK September services PMI 51.7 vs 52.0 Reuters poll forecast

• 1.3350 and 1.34 are GBP/USD resistance levels beyond 1.3322

GBPUSD

(Robert Howard is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• EUR/USD falls toward 1.1418 base of the 20-day Bollinger bands

• Sep 23 range 1.1421-48 EBS

• Drop stretched as pair about to challenge a key level at 1.1408

• The concurrent drop for oil prices will support EUR/USD

• Test 2026 low at 1.1325 likely on drop below 1.1408

• Rally toward 1.1533 likely if stretched conditions spark reverse

•
EURUSD

(Jeremy Boulton is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

(Removes internal edit notice )

USD/JPY option pricing is throwing up an anomaly that suggests the market is bracing for official intervention rather than simply pricing in further JPY weakness.

Risk reversals are a classic directional volatility play as they capture the difference in implied volatility, and therefore the premium, between puts and calls on the same underlying.

For USD/JPY, that means the relative cost of JPY calls (the right to buy JPY, i.e., USD/JPY downside) versus JPY puts (the right to sell JPY, i.e., USD/JPY topside).

Normally, risk reversals simply track spot. A good recent example is EUR/USD post-Fed, where slow, grinding EUR/USD weakness fed straight through into downside skew. 1-month 25-delta risk reversals widened from an initial 0.1 to 0.35 EUR puts over calls, with implied vols firming too, but with no panic bid for deeper protection given the move is gradual, not disorderly.

USD/JPY should be behaving the same way. The pair is grinding higher and looks vulnerable to further gains after last week's Bank of Japan hike came in less hawkish than hoped, a disappointment now compounded by broad USD strength. Logic says risk reversals should tilt to reflect that topside vulnerability and result in richer JPY puts, cheaper JPY calls.

Instead, the opposite is happening. Benchmark 1-month 25-delta risk reversals have seen their JPY call premium over JPY puts widen from 1.9 vols to 2.3 vols since the BoJ decision, even as USD/JPY has risen over 200 pips in the same window. Spot and skew are pulling in opposite directions, indicating that something other than pure directional flow is driving pricing.

This divergence points to growing market unease over potential official intervention to cap further JPY weakness. Rate checks were already spotted immediately after the BoJ decision, helping to partially reverse the rapid USD/JPY spike from 156.00 to 158.06. Yet the pair has already clawed back into the high 157s, keeping intervention risk squarely in play.

The takeaway from all this?

Those holding JPY calls stand to benefit disproportionately from any fresh rate checks or actual intervention that strengthens JPY, which is precisely why demand, and the premium, for those options remains elevated even as spot pushes the other way.
USD/JPY 25 delta risk reversals

(Richard Pace is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own; Editing by Alexander Smith)

• FX option strikes expire at 10am New York/14:00 GMT on Wednesday September 23

• EUR/USD: 1.1400-10 (3BLN), 1.1425-35 (1BLN), 1.1450-55 (1.6BLN), 1.1475 (1BLN), 1.1485-90 (1.3BLN), 1.1500 (2.7BLN)

• USD/CHF: 0.8200 (452M), 0.8230 (200M), 0.8275 (298M)

• GBP/USD: 1.3300 (174M), 1.3315-25 (682M), 1.3350 (313M)

• EUR/GBP: 0.8550 (425M), 0.8625 (318M)

• AUD/USD: 0.7050-55 (917M), 0.7085 (207M), 0.7120-30 (1.2BLN)

• NZD/USD: 0.5690 (200M), 0.5720 (170M)

• USD/CAD: 1.4125-30 (626M), 1.4150 (519M). EUR/JPY: 179.00-15 (300M)

• USD/JPY: 156.00 (1.6BLN), 156.50 (705M), 157.00 (1.4BLN), 157.50 (971M), 157.90-158.00 (1.1BLN)(Richard Pace is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• Shares of Australia's Dundas Minerals rise as much as 2% to A$0.050, hitting their highest level since September 7

• Gold explorer says first assay results from drilling at its Rockland gold project in Western Australia extends gold mineralisation

• YTD, stock up 16.3% including the session's moves

(Reporting by Paridhi Minda in Bengaluru)

• USD/JPY edges higher as hawkish Fed comments bolster rate hike bets

• Dip buyers prevail as BOJ seen lagging Fed in current tightening cycle

• Tokyo intervention resolve will continue to be tested; Japanese holiday Wed

• Oil's slide to a near 3-week low on Wed likely to offer some support for JPY

• Resistance 157.75-80, 158.00-10, 158.60-65, support 157.00, 156.50-60

• Asia range 157.42-157.66
JPY:

(Krishna Kumar is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

• GBP/USD down 0.1% in Asia after closing 0.2% lower on Tuesday

• Pressured by hawkish comments from Fed officials, rising Fed rate bets

• Oil's slide to a near 3-week low on Tue likely to offer some support

• UK employers' pay awards cool to 3%, Brightmine data shows

• Adds to signs of softer labour market, cooler inflation; BoE on hold in Nov?

• UK ready to lead global push on AI Standards, Burnham tells UN

• Strong supports at 1.3334-44 lost, opens ratchet to 1.3265-75

• Interim support at 1.3300-05; resistance 1.3375-80, 1.3405-10

• Tuesday range 1.3322-1.3386, Asia 1.3325-1.3345
GBP:

(Krishna Kumar is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

• Shares of Silver Mines fall 11.4% to A$0.155, on track for worst day since June 18 if trends hold

• Silver explorer to raise A$70 million ($49.81 million) at issue price of A$0.145 per share via placement

• Issue price represents a discount of 17.1% to stock's last close

• About 10.7 mln shares change hands, 1.5x the 30-day average of 7.1 mln

• Stock down 29.6% YTD including moves in current session

($1 = 1.4055 Australian dollars)

(Reporting by Jasmeen Ara Shaikh in Bengaluru)

• USD/JPY to remain supported on dips amid Fed rate outlook, risk rally

• Closed unchanged Tue in choppy trading after recovering from sharp 0.6% drop

• Fell on Iran peace deal optimism but buyers returned on Trump comments

• Tehran says ready to reopen Strait of Hormuz if US eased military pressure

• Trump says peace deal would come after US midterm elections, threatens Iran

• Hawkish Fed comments, Japan fiscal concerns offset intervention fears

• Tokyo intervention resolve will continue to be tested; Japanese holiday Wed

• Support 157.00, 156.50-60, resistance 158.00-10, 158.60-65

• Tuesday range 156.82-157.77, Asia 157.42-157.55
Inflation gauges:

(Krishna Kumar is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

• NZD/USD +0.5% from Tue 0.56945 low, but month-long downtrend firmly intact

• RBNZ Governor Anna Breman says high oil prices risk to inflation & recovery

• Futures pricing implies 76.1% probability of 25 bps RBNZ hike Oct 28

• Iranian official sees quick Strait of Hormuz reopening if demands are met

• Saudi Arabia restarts pipeline, Trump threatens Iran annihilation, WTI -1.0%

• Trump meeting Xi Jinping in Washington Thur, markets watching closely

• Clean break below 0.5695 support will trigger slide toward 0.5627 ytd low

• Range NZ 0.57255-31, support 0.5695 0.5627, resistance 0.5995 0.6012
NZD Daily 21/55/100-DMA

(James Connell is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

• EUR/USD -0.15% from Tue 1.1469 open amid ongoing Euro Zone sentiment frailty

• EU Sep consumer confidence -16.5 (prior -15.5), 1st deterioration since Apr

• Saudi Arabia restarts pipeline, Trump threatens Iran annihilation, WTI -1.2%

• Iranian official says Strait of Hormuz could be reopened if demands are met

• U.S. President Trump to meet CN leader Xi Jinping in Washington Thur

• EUR continues drift toward 1.1353, break above 1.1500 would flip narrative

• Range Asia 1.1448-4825, support 1.1353 1.1325, resistance 1.1710 1.1850
EU Consumer Confidence


EUR Daily 21/55/100-DMA

(James Connell is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

• AUD/USD -0.15% wtd, restrained despite RBA hike warning & oil volatility

• Saudi Arabia restarts oil pipeline, Brent crude -1.7% to $98.64 a barrel

• Trump threatens to annihilate Iran in UN speech if no deal can be reached

• Iran official says Strait of Hormuz could be reopened if key demands are met

• AU Aug employment due Thur, poll consensus: +20k jobs, 4.5% unemployment

• AUD break below 0.7077 100-DMA may prompt move toward 0.6920 support

• Overnight range 0.7093-0.7121 support 0.7077 0.6920, resistance 0.72825
AUD Daily 21/55/100-DMA

(James Connell is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)