• USD/JPY (+0.5%) pushing back towards recent high at 162.84

• Little evidence of MoF intervention so far, keeping dip-buying appetite intact

• Though source reports suggest MoF may look to surprise yen shorts

• Macro backdrop is still supportive as firmer risk tone and UST yields underpin topside

• But given the intervention risk, the lean remains asymmetrically skewed towards a corrective pullback

• Meanwhile, with U.S. CPI (July 14) ahead, topside chasing remains unattractive given event risk
USDJPY daily chart


Justin McQueen is a Reuters market analyst. (The views expressed are his own). ((Email: ))

• A nervous market had braced for official USD/JPY intervention during Friday's thinned US holiday trade - it never came

• USD/JPY has bounced back into the low 161s, recovering fromThursday-Friday's slide from mid-162s to a low of 160.49

• Broader FX implied vol is easing as USD momentum fades and the summer lull bites — 1-month vol slips to 7.1 from 7.65 pre-NFP

• However, it remains a fair way from recent 4-year lows at 6.1, leaving room for further vol compression

• But the options market is not standing down on intervention risk — JPY calls continue to command a hefty premium over puts

• 1-month 25 delta risk reversals are 1.5 from 1.7 Thursday - highest since USD/JPY's early May intervention drop to 155.00

• The message from options is clear: volatility may be falling, but the market is not ready to dismiss the threat of Tokyo stepping in
USD/JPY FX option implied volatility


USD/JPY 25 delta risk reversals


(Richard Pace is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• Cable has traded a 38 pip range thus far Monday; 1.3331-1.3369

• 1.3331 is also the low water-mark since Friday's high of 1.3380

• Bids likely near 1.3300 (1.3297 was Thursday's NY session low, pre-NFP data)

• Pound last week racked up its biggest weekly gain vs USD since early April

• BoE will publish its half-yearly Financial Stability Report on Tuesday

• EasyJet ready to accept £5.5 billion takeover bid from U.S. firm Castlelake

GBPUSD


(Robert Howard is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• USD/THB testing 33.30 resistance, higher DXY and USD/JPY underpin

• Pair last at 33.28-31, traded amid 33.16-33.30 range so far

• Clean break above 33.30 risks fresh squeeze back to 33.40, 33.50

• USD/JPY breaks 162.0 handle, last at 162.06-11

• DXY floats above 101.0 again, last at 101.0, traded 101.03 high
THB

(Catherine Tan is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are her own.)

• FX option strikes expire at 10am New York/14:00 GMT on Monday July 6

• EUR/USD: 1.1370-80 (540M), 1.1400-10 (2.6BLN), 1.1450 (1.4BLN), 1.1500 (2.5BLN)

• USD/CHF: 0.8000 (210M), 0.8100 (591M). EUR/CHF: 0.9225 (307M)

• GBP/USD: 1.3350 (427M). AUD/NZD: 1.2200 (201M)

• AUD/USD: 0.6885-90 (961M), 0.6900 (298M), 0.6940-50 (529M), 0.7000 (754M), 0.7025 (600M)

• USD/CAD: 1.4150 (200M), 1.4200-05 (310M).

• USD/JPY: 160.50 (2.6BLN), 161.00 (1.1BLN), 161.25 (550M), 161.50 (1BLN), 161.75 (3.2BLN), 162.00 (1.3BLN)

• EUR/JPY: 184.45-55 (459M). AUD/JPY: 115.00-05 (609M)(Richard Pace is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• AUD/USD down 0.2% in Asia as risk rally pauses, stocks drop

• Wall Street futures pare gains, Nikkei -1.2% as traders mull Fed rate path

• AUD likely to remain supported on dips as Fed rate hike bets wane

• Last week's soft U.S. jobs data will continue to weigh on USD

• AUD recovery from 200-day MA currently at 0.6869 technically positive

• Interim supports at 0.6910-15, 0.6885-90; resistance 0.6950, 0.6975-80

• Asia range 0.69225-0.69465
AUD:

(Krishna Kumar is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

• USD/SGD edging higher, in line with pop higher in USD/JPY and DXY

• Pair last at 1.2923-28, traded amid 1.2913-25 range so far

• Nearby resistance at 1.2930, break risks squeeze to 1.2950

• USD/JPY last at 161.80-85 vs 161.32 early low, bullish bias intact

• Intervention risk may see setback but unable to reverse uptrend

• Hedging related interests continue to underpin

• DXY last at 100.97, up from 100.84 early Asian low
SGD

(Catherine Tan is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are her own.)

• GBP/USD wilts to 1.3354 after opening 1.3369; well-capped

• Bollinger uptrend channel rejected two rally attempts Thur-Fri

• Just above it, 200 and 100 DMA converge around 1.3400 barrier

• Additionally, Ichimoku cloud reinforces psychological barrier

• Barring a strong negative-USD catalyst, GBP/USD may recoil

• Consolidation toward 21 DMA 1.3303 appears likely ahead
GBP


(Ewen Chew is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

• USD/JPY up 0.1% in Asia after closing 0.2% higher Fri as dip buyers support

• Speculators boldened by absence of Tokyo intervention but remain wary

• BOJ's slow rate hikes, Japan fiscal concerns counter intervention fears

• Japan's government blueprint nudges BOJ to fuel demand, clouding rates path

• Japan outlined large spending plans in its latest policy blueprint last week

• Waning Fed rate hike bets likely to cap rallies

• Resistance 161.65-70, 161.95-162.00, support 161.00-10, 160.50-60

• Friday range 160.485-161.525, Asia 161.35-161.58
JPY:

(Krishna Kumar is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

• EUR/USD reverts to 1.1435 after Mon blip up to 1.1446; capped

• Steering away from 21 DMA resistance 1.1468 again

• That short-term chart barrier has previously deflected rallies

• Bollinger downtrend channel at 1.1387 beckons to short-sellers

• EUR/USD weakness persists despite US NFP miss denting Fed hike odds

• Germany budget proposes huge increase in borrowing
EUR


(Ewen Chew is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

• AUD/USD to stay bid on dips after closing 0.25% higher on Friday

• Buoyed by repricing of Fed rate hike bets after soft U.S. jobs data

• Supported by risk rally on waning global rate hike expectations

• Lower energy prices, easing inflation fears boost risk appetite

• MSCI gauge of global stocks up 0.4% Fri, Wall Street futures advance

• Europe's STOXX 600 climb 0.6% to another record high

• AUD recovery from 200-day MA currently at 0.6869 technically positive

• Interim supports at 0.6910-15, 0.6885-90; resistance 0.6950, 0.6975-80

• Friday range 0.6911-0.6949; Monday Asia range 0.6940-0.69465
AUD:

(Krishna Kumar is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

• Gold sees sharp rebound post softer U.S. payrolls, rates repricing driving the move

• Precious metals tracking Fed hike expectations closely, dovish shift providing a tailwind

• Unwind of Warsh-driven hawkish sell-off opens path back toward $4370–80

• Near-term, $4300–4400 marks first meaningful resistance zone; expect supply to build

• Bullish bias holds while above $3940–60, break below would likely invalidate dip-buying setup
gold chart


gold vs Fed july pricing


Justin McQueen is a Reuters market analyst. (The views expressed are his own). ((Email: ))

(Repeats with no changes)

July 3 (Reuters) -

• FX options expire at 10-am New York/1400 GMT on Friday July 3

• EUR/USD: 1.1325-35 (960M), 1.1340-50 (943M), 1.1370-75 (2.7BLN)

• 1.1380-85 (947M), 1.1390-00 (1.15BLN), 1.1425-30 (897M), 1.1445-50 (967M)

• 1.1460-65 (438M), 1.1475-80 (504M), 1.1500 (2.03BLN), 1.1525 (298M)

• 1.1550 (355M), 1.1600 (2.02BLN)(Peter Stoneham is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• USD/JPY price action remains skittish, keeping markets alert to intervention risks

• Spot hit an intra-day low of 160.48, but volume is well below those seen during prior interventions

• JP FinMin issues fresh verbal warning, notes close coordination with U.S. on forex, even during U.S. holiday

• Expect traders to stay cautious on the long side given asymmetric downside risk from possible intervention

• Should keep near-term asymmetrical skew leaning towards a sharper corrective move

• A coordinated intervention with the U.S. would materially increase impact versus unilateral MoF action

• Initial support sits at 159.63–160.01 (55DMA cluster)

• In a credible intervention scenario, downside could extend toward 156.50-157.00, aligning with the 200DMA zone
USD/JPY 15 min


Justin McQueen is a Reuters market analyst. (The views expressed are his own). ((Email: ))

• EUR edging higher but still capped ahead of 1.1472 (post-NFP high)

• Market reluctant to chase topside - softer payrolls insufficient to sustain upside momentum

• Latest uptick not corroborated by EU–US rate spreads given no meaningful compression

• Sintra takeaways: growing ECB faction comfortable with holding rates steady

• Recent downside inflation surprises also raise the bar for any additional ECB tightening

• Macro backdrop remains a modest headwind for EUR

• Resistance: 1.1500, then 1.1580 (pre-Fed level)

• Support: 1.1350–60, with a deeper cushion at 1.1300–20
eu vs spreads


Justin McQueen is a Reuters market analyst. (The views expressed are his own). ((Email: ))

• AUD/USD rises to 0.6949 as global stock gains buoy risk-sensitive AUD

• 0.6949 is the highest level since June 23 (0.7003 was the high that day)

• Asian stocks climb; Nikkei up 1.47%. Germany's Dax hits record high

• 0.6911 was Asia low. 0.6943 was Thursday high, after USD fell on NFP data

• CFTC data Monday to show if net AUD short rose again in week to June 30

• Australia flags risk to iron ore price from China state buyer

AUDUSD


(Robert Howard is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• Some speculation of possible BOJ rate checks but still seen unlikely

• USD/JPY slump to 160.49 more likely on market nervousness over possibility

• Asia retracement high early 161.52 EBS, USD/JPY heavy and off since

• Thin conditions on US holiday seen by many as perfect timing for FX action

• Of course this on assumption Japan's MOF wants USD lower, punish speculators

• As was case yesterday, sales again more likely on algos, long liquidation

• Could be foreign investors hedging Japan stock buys taking off hedges too

• Nikkei off earlier today to 67,609.49 before bouncing to 69,788.03

• Nikkei closed TSE trading today at 69,744.07

• Market likely to remain nervous into London/European trading

• Related comment , also ,
USD/JPY daily:


USD/JPY hourly:


Nikkei 225 daily:

(Haruya Ida is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• USD/CNH slides to 6.7812, taking a peek at 61.8% Fibo support

• Breaks 21 DMA support 6.7839 which previously prompted rebounds

• If Fibo floor at 6.7790 cracks, more room till next one at 6.7680

• Fresh weakness appears as USD/JPY drops below 161.00

• Heading into weekend, JPY intervention fears are on the rise

• Japan FX officials might capitalize on thin US holiday liquidity
CNH


(Ewen Chew is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

• FX options expire at 10-am New York/1400 GMT on Friday July 3

• EUR/USD: 1.1325-35 (960M), 1.1340-50 (943M), 1.1370-75 (2.7BLN)

• 1.1380-85 (947M), 1.1390-00 (1.15BLN), 1.1425-30 (897M), 1.1445-50 (967M)

• 1.1460-65 (438M), 1.1475-80 (504M), 1.1500 (2.03BLN), 1.1525 (298M)

• 1.1550 (355M), 1.1600 (2.02BLN)(Peter Stoneham is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• USD/JPY choppy in early Asia trading, day's range of 160.92-161.52 EBS then

• Market has since settled with pair holding above 160.91 daily Ichimoku kijun

• Kijun briefly pierced to downside overnight on move to 160.64

• Next support 160.48 low June 18, then daily lows to 159.51 June 11

• Option expiries today include 160.00 $1.3, 160.50 $1.2 and 161.50 $1.4 bln

• Whether Japan's MOF intervenes tonight maybe key to USD/JPY from here

• US holiday today, thin conditions providing MOF with great opportunity

• This especially if MOF is really out to punish speculators

• Some JPY short-covering seen yesterday but market still seen very short yen

• Weak US jobs data, fading Fed rate hike expectations helped yen but enough?

• No hints from MOF of action however, only usual mantra from FinMin Katayama

• JPY crosses heavy in Asia, dragged lower by USD/JPY yesterday

• EUR/JPY 184.25-41 EBS, back below descending 200-HMA at 184.52

• Also below 100-DMA at 184.67, 184.95-99 daily Ichimoku cloud

• CHF/JPY 200.24-85, above 200.07 daily Ichi tenkan but below 201.03-87 cloud

• Also below 200.76-79 hourly Ichimoku cloud now but could break back above

• GBP/JPY more buoyant than other crosses, 214.66-215.44, downside limited

• Off 216.05 high yesterday but support from 214.19/25 daily kijun/tenkan

• Ensconced for now in 215.19-64 ascending hourly Ichimoku cloud

• AUD/JPY up some too from 111.11 low yesterday, Asia 111.24-82

• Still generally heavy, holding mostly below 111.73-113.31 daily Ichi cloud

• Also below 111.92-112.03 soon to descend hourly Ichimoku cloud

• NZD/JPY 91.64-92.05, up some from 91.53 low yesterday, 91.00 June 26

• Still well below 93.02-64 daily Ichi cloud but into 91.92-92.22 hourly cloud

• Fate of JPY crosses seen dependent on USD/JPY moves, whether MOF intervenes

• Related comment , also , on Japan data

• On MOF-speak , , for more click on [FXBUZ]

USD/JPY hourly:


GBP/JPY hourly:


AUD/JPY hourly:

(Haruya Ida is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• AUD/USD up 0.15% in Asia as dip buyers take advantage of early weakness

• Supported by repricing of Fed rate hike bets after soft U.S. jobs data

• Probability of a September hike falls to 54% from 67% before the data

• Bulls regain confidence after recovery from 200-day MA at 0.6865

• Interim support at 0.6885-90, resistance 0.6945-50, 0.6980

• Asia range 0.6911-0.6935
AUD:

(Krishna Kumar is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

• Australian gold miners rise as much as 5.3%, gaining their most since June 15

• Bullion rose more than 2% overnight after weaker-than-expected U.S. non-farm payrolls data reduced expectations of Federal Reserve interest rate hikes this year [GOL/]

• Sector heavyweight Evolution Mining adds 4.5% and Northern Star Resources gains 6.8%

• YTD, sub-index down over 14%

(Reporting by Shruti Agarwal in Bengaluru)

• USD/JPY saw a big slump late Asia yesterday, thoughts of BOJ rate checks

• Seems more a matter of long liquidation on Japan intervention threat

• Move fuelled by view US payrolls would be weak, MOF action post-data release

• US payrolls indeed proved to be weak, left USD/JPY lower but no FX action

• From 162.84 Wednesday and earlier Asia high yesterday of 162.60 to 160.90

• Post-payrolls saw low of 160.64 EBS in NY, Asia so far today 161.13-47

• Up some with market confirmation of no Japanese FX action yet

• Demand still strong on dips/falls from Japanese importers, retail/NISA flows

• Less foreign Japan investment currency hedges with Nikkei well off highs

• Support from area of daily Ichimoku kijun at 160.91 despite push below

• Resistance from hourly Ichi kijun at 161.62, 200/100-HMAs at 161.87/162.08

• Large option expiries to contain USD/JPY especially given US holiday?

• At 160.00 $1.3 bln, 160.50 $1.2 bln, some 161.00-15, 161.50 $1.4 mln

• Related comments , , also

• US markets , , ,

• On Japan's MOF , , US payrolls
USD/JPY daily:


USD/JPY hourly:

(Haruya Ida is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• AUD/USD to stay supported on dips in Asia after closing 0.4% higher Thu

• Boosted by weak U.S. jobs growth, receding Fed rate hike bets

• September Fed rate hike chances drop to 55% from 67% ahead of data

• AUD rally capped by AUD/JPY sales as yen gains on intervention fears

• Recovery from 200-day MA at 0.6865 hints of base formation

• Interim support at 0.6885-90, resistance 0.6945-50, 0.6980

• Thursday range 0.68845-0.6943
AUD:

(Krishna Kumar is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)