(Fixes typo in headline)

• GBP$ surged higher in NorAm trading; +0.77% at 1.3470; NY range 1.3474-1.3334

• BoE held rate as exp'd; vote 6-3 was slightly more hawkish than expected

• BoE holding line awaiting inflation data in light of recent oil volatility; Bailey says can wait & see

• Pair also benefiting from significant USDJPY selling on suspected intervention

• GBP$ res 1.3460/74 23.6% Fib of 1.3140-1.3556/Thurs high, 1.3517 upper 30-d Bolli

• Supt 1.3399 flat 200-DMA, 1.3368 falling 10-DMA, 1.3334 Thursday low (Europe)

• Note long tail Thursday, support near 1.3275 last 3-sessions hint at growing support

GBP$ Chart:


(Paul.Spirgel is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• NY opened near 1.1470 after 1.1435 traded overnight, choppy action ensued early

• Buyers emerged however as USD was sold broadly & US yields

sank

• Solid gains in gold, silver & equities rallies reinforced the USD selling theme

• USD/CNH drop to a 3-1/2-year low also contributed to keeping the USD heavy

• EUR/UD rallied above the 55-DMA, hit a 1-1/2-month high of 1.1537

• The pair sat just below that high late in the day, it traded up +0.54%

• Techs lean bullish; RSIs are rising, the pair trades above the 10-, 21- & 55-DMAs

• July's monthly bull hammer, break of down trend off May 11 high add to bull signals
eurusd


(Christopher Romano is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• NY opened near 0.6975 after 0.6947 traded overnight, rally extended in NY

• Broad-based & intense USD selling, US yield drop lifted the pair

• USD/CNH drop to 6.7441, rallies in gold, silver, copper & equities added buoyancy

• AUD/USD pierced the 55-DMA, hit a 1-1/2-month high of 0.7033, was up +1.08% late

• Techs lean bullish; RSIs indicate upward momentum, pair above 10-, 21- & 55-DMAs

• Widening & rising 20-month Bolli bands suggest increased volatility & rally likely
audusd


(Christopher Romano is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

SEB Research previews the July BoJ decision.

"Bank of Japan (BOJ) will likely keep policy rate steady at 1.00% on 31st July. Governor Ueda’s press conference will be closely watched if he will follow through on the statements made BOJ officials which hinted at a willingness to tighten at faster pace," SEB notes.

"Other than a clear guidance to tighten in August or in September, market will back to run with the carry trade that will bring the yen on the backfoot again," SEB adds.

• Cable jumps to 1.3447 as dollar tanks vs yen (pre-BOJ event risk Friday)

• 1.3447 is the highest level since July 21 (1.3454 was the high that day)

• Prior dollar losses against yen lifted GBP/USD to 1.3405 London morning high

• Ensuing low was 1.3368, after relatively dovish rate hold from BoE

• Traders trim UK rate hike bets after BoE flags limited Iran spillover

GBPUSD


(Robert Howard is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

ING Research previews today's BoJ meeting.

"As to the decision, anything other than an unchanged 1.00% policy rate would be a surprise. There could be some interest in the voting patterns. Governor Kazuo Ueda is expected to return after a recent illness, bringing the Policy Board back to nine," ING notes.

"The focus will be on whether any of the board members will vote for back-to-back hikes. Kajime Nakata did so in January this year and could be a candidate to do so again this week. A bigger surprise would be whether the other two hawks, Junko Nakagawa and Naoki Tamura, join him," ING adds.

Cable looks modestly biased higher after a less-hawkish Fed hold trumped a less-dovish BoE hold, leaving the near-term risk skewed toward sterling maintaining its recent gains.

Both central banks left rates unchanged, but the market reaction has been all about narrative rather than the decision. The post-Fed presser underwhelmed, with Chair Kevin Warsh's inflation-fighting credentials called into question after a non-committal answer on whether hikes remain a tool to arrest above-target inflation. The reaction was telling: long-end UST yields twist-steepened dramatically, and the jump in funding costs initially pressured equities dramatically lower, underscoring elevated near-term uncertainty.

Crucially, Fed near-term pricing has ratcheted lower. LSEG IRPR odds of a September hike have collapsed from 100% to 56%, while the December 2025 outlook has eased from +43bp to +31bp — a more dovish implied path.

The BoE's 7-3 hold, with three dissenters seeking a 25bp hike, reads hawkish on the surface. But the MPC has been loud and clear regarding its reliance on upcoming economic data, particularly regarding oil price volatility and its impact on inflation, before considering any policy adjustments.

With Fed hike expectations fading, GBP/USD should hold the bulk of recent gains,

A support level appears to be forming around 1.3275, the Monday-to-Wednesday low area. Traders will now be keenly awaiting upcoming U.S. payroll data, along with both U.S. and UK inflation figures, for further insights into the future direction of monetary policy in both economies.
GBP$ Chart:


(Paul Spirgel is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

Goldman Sachs Research reviews the July FOMC meeting.

"The run-up t July FOMC meeting was unusually dramatic, with markets pricing the most uncertainty about whether or not the FOMC would hike in three decades. But the meeting ended with no change to the funds rate, no substantive changes to the statement, and no policy guidance or explanation of the FOMC's interpretation of the inflation situation during the press conference. Presidents Hammack, Kashkari, and Logan dissented in favor of a rate hike," GS notes.

"The bond market is now pricing a 60% chance of a rate hike at the next FOMC meeting in September. We continue to expect that softer core inflation in coming months will keep the Fed on hold for the remainder of 2026," GS adds.

Barclays Research highlights the expected flows from this month-end rebalancing.

"Our passive month-end rebalancing model shows weak USD buying against most majors, and moderate against the CAD and GBP," Barclays notes.

"Overall, the marginal underperformance in US equity and bond markets dominates our month- end model due to the large market cap and induces a weak dollar-buying signal against most majors Canada and the UK are an exception, as the signal points to moderate USD buying, driven by the outperformance of equities in these countries," Barclays adds.

(Adds latest price shift after spot drop and adds link to line 5)

• Benchmark 1-month expiry USD/JPY FX option implied volatility was sold at 5.8 on Thursday

• That's an ever new low for the contract since February 2022. 5.0 was post pandemic low from Sept 2021

• However, when compared with realised volatility over the last 1-month - 5.0 is the current fair value measure

• That's up from 3.85, but a repeat of the past months realised volatility still wouldn't cover the premium

• 1-month implied vol has since been paid at 6.15 after latest USD/JPY drop sub 163.00

• A short gamma driven surge above 164.00 barriers might reignite vol demand, especially if it leads to intervention

• Markets aren't expecting Friday's BoJ to fuel volatility - according to overnight expiry FX option pricing

• FX options eye September Fed reload
USD/JPY 1-month implied volatility


(Richard Pace is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• EUR/USD up from 1.1375 to 1.1475 EBS on Wednesday

• High matches the peak of the 20-day Bollinger bands

• Dip to 1.1435 on Thursday followed by rise top 1.1465

• Traders were betting $6billion on euro dropping

• Short squeeze lifting euro after Fed held US int/rate

• Close over 55-DMA, daily cloud base 1.1495/90 risks bigger rise

• Crowded dollar longs leave currency vulnerable to further unwinding

•
EURUSD


(Jeremy Boulton is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

July 30 (Reuters) - EUR/GBP's nine-month downtrend showed signs of capitulation in July, with price accelerating from 0.8617 to 0.8455 (LSEG data) before staging a notable recovery towards month-end. The velocity of the move is itself instructive - a blow-off acceleration of this nature often marks trend exhaustion rather than continuation, particularly when it coincides with a failed break of key structural support.

That's precisely what occurred here. The sell-off briefly violated the 200-month moving average, which has underpinned price since June 2025, before price rejected the break and reclaimed the average. A false break of a level this significant is a textbook bullish reversal signal, and the technical bias shifts constructively for the euro as long as monthly closes hold above the average.

Compounding this, price action has printed a hammer on the monthly candle - small real body, negligible upper wick, and a long lower shadow extending well below the open. The pattern reflects a clear intra-month shift in order flow: aggressive selling into the lows was absorbed, with buyers driving price back toward the open by the close. Taken together with the false break, this adds weight to a near-term bottoming thesis.

Confirmation remains outstanding, though. A monthly close near July's lows would negate the hammer, hand control back to sellers, and likely reopen downside risk below 0.8455. Conversely, a close that preserves the hammer's structure keeps the 100-month moving average at 0.8658 in view as the next upside objective.

Key levels to watch into month-end: hold above the 200-MMA and a constructive close are prerequisites for the bullish scenario to gain traction; failure to do so undermines the reversal setup entirely.
EUR/GBP Monthly Chart:


(Peter Stoneham is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• The FX volatility upon which options thrive is unknown, so implied volatility becomes its proxy

• Overnight FX option expiries now include Friday's BoJ policy decision so their implied volatility is telling

• Overnight expiry USD/JPY implied volatility reached 15.0 before Wed's Fed - double the recent average

• However, it's since dropped back to 10.0 - so around 2.5 above the recent average - low FX risk premium for BoJ

• Premium/break-even at 10.0 vol is 68 JPY pips in either direction vs 51 JPY pips at 7.5 (102 JPY pips at 15.0)

• Broader FX option implied volatility has dropped back to prior 2026 lows after paring Wed's Fed risk premium
Overnight expiry USD/JPY FXO implied volatility


(Richard Pace is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

(amends link to short position story )

• EUR/USD jumps to 1.1470 after Fed hold and reaches 1.1475 Thursday

• EUR/USD traders established a short position toward the bottom

• The rally faltered ahead Jul 15 peak at 1.1482

• Pair peaked after it reached top of 20-day Bollinger Bands

• Oil has jumped after more fighting in Middle East weighing EUR/USD

• Yuan strength, euro resilience may redefine what is a safe currency

• Resilience of EUR/USD support sets stage for 1.2165

•
EUR/USD


(Jeremy Boulton is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• Cable falls to 1.3334 as safe-haven USD strengthens on higher oil prices

• Oil up on war news: U.S. military says it hit dozens of Iran's IRGC targets

• 1.3334 is low since 1.3385 high following Fed rate hold on Wednesday

• Pre-Fed low was 1.3280. 30-year UST yield up to 19-year high in Asia

• BoE is expected to keep its policy rate at 3.75% at 1100 GMT

• U.S. June core PCE data due at 1230 GMT; 0.2% MM, 3.3% YY forecast

GBPUSD


(Robert Howard is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• FX option strikes expire at 10am New York/14:00 GMT on Thursday July 30

• EUR/USD: 1.1400 (2.7BLN), 1.1415 (2.6BLN), 1.1420-25 (1BLN), 1.1430-40 (1.3BLN), 1.1450-60 (2.4BLN)

• 1.1470-75 (1.4BLN), 1.1485-90 (752M), 1.1500-05 (1BLN), 1.1520-30 (1.7BLN), 1.1540-45 (2.1BLN)

• USD/CHF: 0.8055 (230M), 0.8075 (672M), 0.8100 (527M)

• EUR/GBP: 0.8560 (450M), 0.8580 (550M), 0.8600-05 (380M)

• GBP/USD: 1.3200 (510M), 1.3250-55 (384M), 1.3350 (208M), 1.3420 (660M)

• AUD/USD: 0.6950 (206M), 0.6960-70 (338M), 0.7000 (800M), 0.7025 (737M)

• NZD/USD: 0.5750 (353M). AUD/NZD: 1.1950 (930M), 1.1975 (252M)

• USD/CAD: 1.4015 (1.2BLN), 1.4100 (914M), 1.4105-15 (834M)

• USD/JPY: 163.00 (2.4BLN), 163.50-60 (2.1BLN), 164.00 (1.4BLN), 165.00 (4BLN)(Richard Pace is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• GBP/USD down 0.2% in Asia on profit-taking after a 0.6% rally Wednesday

• Slips from an early 1.3383 high to 1.3344 as long-dated U.S. yields surge

• U.S. 30-year yield hovers near 19-year high hit Wed when it gained 12 bps

• Fed holds rates, its inflation resolve questioned, Warsh dodges guidance

• BoE expected to hold rates at 3.75% in a 6-3 vote Thursday

• Resistance at 1.3381, ten 1.3396-98 where 100 & 200-day MAs converge

• Support 1.3310-15, 1.3275-80; Wed range 1.3280-1.3385
GBP:

(Krishna Kumar is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

Bank of America Global Research previews the July BoE meeting on Thursday.

"We expect the Bank of England (BoE) to keep the Bank Rate on hold at 3.75% this Thursday (7-2 vote with Pill and Greene voting for a hike with a high risk of a 6-3). We expect the overall message to be balanced. We expect the MPC to keep the door kept open to a hike, but don't expect it to give a strong signal about an imminent hike either, given uncertainty and limited second round effects so far. But the recent rise in energy prices imply that risks are tilted to a hawkish tone. But we also think the MPC could push back against market pricing, which is currently pricing close to three hikes," BofA notes.

"Ongoing momentum squeeze is likely to be the pervasive driver for GBP in the short-term. The BoE should therefore not unduly impact the pound against this backdrop. Indeed, any rally will likely be seen as an opportunity to sell," BofA adds.

• EUR/USD -0.1% Thur as FOMC fuelled rally loses momentum in Asia

• EU Q2 flash GDP due Thur, Reuters poll consensus +0.2% q/q, +0.5% y/y

• EU Jul consumer confidence & Jun unemployment rate (poll 6.2%) also due Thur

• U.S. completes air strikes on Iran, honouring Trump's threats of retaliation

• EUR likely to encounter resistance towards former 1.1500 support

• Range Asia 1.144825-75, support 1.1325, resistance 1.1500 1.1850 1.1930
EUR Daily 55-DMA


DXY Daily 55-DMA

(James Connell is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

• AUD/USD +0.1% Thur; Jun building approvals jump 7.2% (Reuters poll -1.0%)

• Sell AUD strength toward 0.7020-25 zone, expect drift toward 0.6908 200-DMA

• RBA likely on hold after Wed's cooler than expected inflation update

• U.S. fulfills retaliation threats with fresh air strikes on Iran

• DXY remains 0.5% lower in wake of FOMC decision to leave FFR unchanged

• Range Asia 0.6950-655 support 0.6920 0.6866 0.6834, resistance 0.7027
AUD Daily 200-DMA

(James Connell is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

• USD/JPY down 0.1% in Asia after closing 0.25% lower on Wednesday

• Weighed down by concerns the Fed is behind the curve on inflation

• Fed held rates steady in 3.50%-3.75% range; 3 of 12 policymakers back hike

• Oil rises sharply as Iran war widens, Wall Street fell sharply

• Longer-dated Treasury yields jump as inflation concerns grip markets

• Focus shifts to Friday, BOJ's rate decision; hawkish hold expected

• Support 163.00, 162.70, 162.50, resistance 163.60, 163.90-164.00

• Wednesday range 163.23-163.91, Asia 163.21-163.45
JPY:

(Krishna Kumar is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

• EUR/USD +0.7% & DXY -0.6% after Fed votes to leave FFR target unchanged

• Three dissents preferred a 25 bps hike, 30-year UST yields jumped 11 bps

• Trump threatens retaliation against Iran for Wed's Middle East attacks

• Reports Yemen's Houthis considering Red Sea tolls; Brent crude +7.9%

• EUR pushing upper hourly Bollinger band, progress higher may slow in Asia

• EU Q2 flash GDP due Thur, Reuters poll consensus +0.2% q/q, +0.5% y/y

• EU Jul consumer confidence & Jun unemployment rate (poll 6.2%) also due Thur

• Range Asia 1.144825-69, support 1.1325, resistance 1.1500 1.1850 1.1930
EUR Daily 55-DMA


DXY Daily 55-DMA


EUR Hourly Bollinger Study

(James Connell is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

• AUD/USD -0.3% since early Wed after oscillating in wake of Fed decision

• FOMC leaves FFR target unchanged, with three dissents preferring a hike

• Trump vowed to retaliate against Wed's surprise attack by Iranian forces

• Reports Yemen's Houthis considering Red Sea tolls; Brent crude +7.7%

• Pressure eases on RBA to hike after cooler than expected inflation update

• AUD likely to drift lower toward 0.6908 200-DMA, sell rallies 0.7020-25 zone

• RBA Assistant Governor Sarah Hunter speaking in Sydney early Thur

• Range early Asia 0.6950-63 support 0.6920 0.6866 0.6834, resistance 0.7027
AUD Daily 200-DMA


DXY Daily 55-DMA

(James Connell is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

CIBC Research reviews today's July FOMC statement.

"Today’s stand pat decision by the Fed provided little solace for those hoping to avoid a rate hike this year. A no-hike decision was mostly anticipated investors. But the fact that there were three dissenting votes in favor of a hike, a rare degree of divergence, after a unanimous decision to hold rates in June, should keep the market on alert for a hike in September, particularly with war clouds pushing up energy prices again. This wasn’t a meeting with an accompanying forecast, and the bare bones statement, identical to June’s other than the dissents, reflects Warsh’s distaste for forward guidance," CIBC notes.

"While our own forecast currently has the Fed on hold over the balance of the year, that call assumes an end to disruptions in Middle East oil traffic, which is far from a sure thing at this point. September’s meeting could readily see a quarter point rate hike if energy prices continue to escalate due to a more protracted conflict in the Gulf, raising the risk of further spillovers into core inflation," CIBC adds.