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Credit Agricole CIB Research adopts a cautious bias on the USD in the near-term.
"FX investors could start focusing on other USD fundamentals more closely and may thus discover that its relative rate advantage over the rest of G10 is no longer growing and that, as a result, the USD is starting to look somewhat overvalued. Market participants would further start scrutinising the quality of the incoming US data as it would inform the Fed policy outlook," CACIB notes.
"This week, focus will also be on the US inflation and retail sales data for September as well as speeches by Fed Chair Kevin Warsh and his colleagues. At the time of writing, the US rate markets are pricing in c.76bp of additional Fed tightening in the next twelve months. This is an excessively hawkish outlook in our view. With many Fed-related positives already in the price of the USD, it would take upside data surprises and hawkish Fedspeak to boost the currency," CACIB adds