Oct 13 (Reuters) - EUR/USD could see a much bigger slump as the downside risk continues to grow in part due to a negative technical outlook on the medium-term chart.

The euro saw its fifth straight weekly drop on Friday, as FX traders continued to increase their speculative US dollar long positions.

EUR/USD on Friday registered a second consecutive weekly close below 1.1336, the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the 1.0125 to 1.2084 rise on EBS between 2025 and 2026. That has increased the likelihood of a deeper fall to test 1.1104, the 50% retracement of the same move.

The 14-week momentum reading remains negative, highlighting the overall bearish market structure. If the pair slides below the 1.1104 level, that would unmask the 1.1000 psychological level.

The downside bias remains negative while trading persists below last week's 1.1276 high. However, if trading rebounds above 1.1276, that would provide evidence that the downtrend may be nearing an end.
Weekly Chart


Weekly Momentum Chart

(Martin Miller is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own. Editing by Louise Heavens)