• EUR/USD 1-week expiry options include today's US jobs data, 10 Sep ECB and 11 Sep US CPI data

• 1-week expiry implied volatility has increased from 5.0 to 5.5 after including the latter

• That still appears low when compared to 1-week daily realised volatility at 6.05

• Realised volatility is actual volatility over the previous 1-week and can offer a fair value measure for coming period

• Current implied vol pricing suggests a greater chance of actual/realised volatility outperforming it over the next week

• Volatility can be monetised by constantly adjusting an opposing cash hedge to the option position which offsets currency risk
1-week EUR/USD FXO implied vs realised

(Richard Pace is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

CIBC Research discusses today's US August jobs report.

"The US labor market sprung back to life in August. Total non-farm payroll employment increased by 162K in August, beating consensus expectations of 55K. July’s contraction was revised up to 21K. The June and July combined revision was +55K. The unemployment rate held steady at 4.1% as participation increased. The participation rate ticked up to 61.6% after two consecutive monthly declines, led by a large jump in participation rate in youth while prime-age held steady. Job growth was led by food services and drinking places and local government education (which largely reversed a July decline). The information industry lost 23K jobs, driven by cuts in computing infrastructure/data processing. Average hourly earnings rose 0.3% m/m in August but year-over-year earnings declined from 3.2% to 3.1%. Although the unemployment rate remained at 4.1% in August, it shows a small rebound in second decimal (July 4.09% to 4.14% in August)," CIBC notes.

"Although today’s payroll job gains were higher than expected, the unemployment rate was essentially unchanged and wage growth kept decelerating on an annual basis. That is still roughly consistent with the stable labour market described in the FOMC minutes in July. That means the decisive data point for the upcoming FOMC meeting later this month will come from the August CPI report next Friday. If that report comes in largely in line with no pick up in core CPI, that will likely provide the go-ahead for many voting members waiting on confirmation of signs of disinflation to vote for a hold," CIBC adds.

• Shares of gold miners down, tracking lower bullion prices [GOL/]

• Spot gold down 0.6% at $4,446.58/ounce, on track for a mild weekly decline

• Gold prices fall after stronger-than-expected U.S. jobs data boosted expectations that the Federal Reserve could raise interest rates as soon as this month, denting non-yielding bullion's appeal

• Bullion down more than 2%, hitting an intraday low of $4,364.99/ounce, after the data

• Top miner Newmont and Barrick Mining down 1.4% and 1.3%, respectively

• U.S.-listed shares of South African miners: AngloGold Ashanti , Harmony Gold and Sibanye Stillwater

decline between ~1% and 2%

• Canadian miners: Agnico Eagle Mines and Kinross Gold each down ~1%

(Reporting by Pooja Menon in Bengaluru)

Bank of America Global Research discusses the last COFER release.

"The USD reserve share rose in Q1, but much of that reflected a firmer USD rather than fresh buying. Adjusting for exchange-rate and bond-market moves gives a truer read of what reserve managers actually did. Underlying demand was broader than the optics. Once valuation is stripped out, reserve managers were net buyers of the dollar - but also added to GBP and EUR holdings," BofA notes.

"The EUR reported dip was essentially a price-driven story, not active selling. If anything, data from European govt bond syndications and the German finance agency showed increased buying by central banks this year," BofA adds.

ANZ Research discusses NZD outlook for the coming weeks.

"The only domestic data next week will be the BusinessNZ Performance of Manufacturing Index for August. The PMI has been consistent with expansion in the manufacturing sector since last July and shown particularly strong readings since May. In July, the figures softened after reaching a near five-year high in June, but readings still indicate a firm and broad expansion in output. That said, we think it will take a strong change to shift the NZD noticeably. Considering we have a slight upside bias for the USD in the week ahead, NZD/USD is likely to remain in its new lower range of 0.5850–0.59, and any downward momentum in risk appetite might see it breach 0.584, its 50-dma," ANZ notes.

"On the crosses, EUR/NZD has been trading near 1.96 since the middle of July. Following the RBNZ meeting, the pair has soared to 1.98. In the runup to the ECB rates decision next week, we think there is scope for some downward movement. A hike is fully priced in, but if the central bank fails to signal further tightening, we might see the pair move towards key support at 1.952," ANZ adds.

• Cable has traded a 21.5 pip range thus far Friday; 1.3523-1.35445

• 1.3548 was Thursday top after dovish Waller guidance weighed on dollar

• Markets currently see Fed rate decision on Sept 16 as coin toss for hold/hike

• U.S. jobs report due at 1230 GMT; August NFP f/c at 56k; jobless rate f/c 4.1%

• Soft U.S. employment data might inflate GBP/USD towards 1.36

• 1.3475 was three-week low on Wednesday, which a Fibo level helped define

GBPUSD

(Robert Howard is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• Recent sharp USD/JPY falls have seen FX option prices test/match post intervention extremes from late July

• Benchmark 1-month expiry implied volatility actually broke the late July 10.5 peak to trade 10.65 on Friday

• That's a huge increase from levels around 7.15 ahead of the spot slide from the upper 159s to 155.25

• Risk reversals were ramped higher, too - benchmark 1-month 25 delta from 1.75 to 2.75 JPY calls over puts

• That contract peaked 3.0 in late July - its highest since April 2025 - driven by outright demand for JPY call strikes

• 3-month expiry 25 delta risk reversals broke their late July highs at 1.9 for 2.05 - last seen January 2025

• Those already long JPY calls well rewarded this week, strikes as low as 150.00 in demand over last 24 hours

• Bottom line - The FX options market is protecting against ongoing volatility and deeper USD/JPY declines
USD/JPY FXO implied volatility


USD/JPY 25 delta risk reversals

(Richard Pace is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• EUR/USD lows rising: Jul 13 1.1325, Jul 28 1.1353, Aug 13 1.1512

• This week's low 1.1566

• Pair currently retesting 200-DMA at 1.1634, Friday range 1.1623-33

• Potential for week to end with a bullish close over 200-DMA

• The 21-DMA at 1.1606 may cross above 200-DMA - buy signal

• Traders are short of euros , growing probability of a squeeze

•
EURUSD

(Jeremy Boulton is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• GBP/USD steady in Asia after rallying 0.3% Thu as Fed rate hike fears ease

• Fed's Waller calms rate hike concerns, boosts risk appetite

• Sep 16 Fed hike odds fall to 50.4% from 63.2% Wed, was 70% earlier this week

• U.S. August jobs data Friday, PPI and CPI next week key for rate outlook

• BoE Governor Bailey's keynote speech published at 0850 GMT (0950 local) Fri

• Bounce from strong double Fibo support at 1.3470-75 encouraging for bulls

• More support at 100 & 200-day MAs which converge at 1.3444-46

• Res 1.3550, 1.3570, 1.3600; Thu range 1.3481-1.3548, Asia 1.3523-1.3526
GBP:

(Krishna Kumar is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

• USD/JPY low today limited to 155.25 EBS but bias remains down

• Levels to watch on the downside include post-FX action 155.20 low Aug 3

• Another daily low of 155.00 seen on May 6 after intervention from Apr 30

• Technically, breaks below both these levels bearish, could see even lower

• Likely targets on decisive move below 155.00 include 152.28 trough Feb 12

• Another low of 152.10 seen on Jan 27, this level and 152.00 key supports

• Some consolidation looks to be in order after big move down from Wednesday

• That said, shift in sentiment towards the yen cannot be denied

• With the market still seen short JPY, bias likely to remain down

• MOF's Mimura said eyeing FX moves closely, not yet comfortable with yen

• Comments yesterday and repeat today suggest MOF OK with JPY rally?

• Related comment , also

• On Mimura-speak , , for more click on [FXBUZ]

USD/JPY:

(Haruya Ida is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• AUD/USD +0.2% Fri as broad USD index struggles in wake of Waller comments

• Break above 0.7210 resistance puts 0.72825 50-month high within reach

• FFR hike bets cooling after the Fed Governor says leaning towards Sep hold

• Critical U.S. Aug non-farm payrolls due Fri, Reuters poll consensus +56k

• Futures pricing implies 67.5% chance of RBA hike Sep 29, supporting AUD

• Range Asia 0.7199-0.7214 support 0.6920 0.6866, resistance 0.7210 0.7282
AUD Daily 21/100/200-DMA

(James Connell is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

• USD/THB opens lower, US dollar index slump on sell-off in USD/JPY

• Pair traded 32.88-33.01 range in NY, closed at 32.90

• Supports at 32.80, 32.60; resistance at 33.0, 33.20

• USD/JPY tank on intervention fears, last at 155.75

• DXY last at 99.04, ranged 98.83-99.61 overnight

• Rally in gold prices add to THB positives, spot gold last $4477.80/oz

• Oil prices hit 6 wks high on renewed US-Iran tensions; Brent last $95.52/bbl

• ISM non-manufacturing PMI rose to 55.4 in August from 54.1

• Fed Governor Christopher Waller said he would favor holding rates steady
THB

(Catherine Tan is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are her own.)

• NZD/USD +0.5% from Thur 0.58475 low, but sellers still lurking on topside

• RBNZ revelation that hiking cycle will slow has reigned-in hawkish sentiment

• 0.5762 support a key target, break above 0.5908 21-DMA would change outlook

• DXY -0.6% after Fed Governor Waller foreseeably leans towards Sep Fed hold

• Futures pricing implies FOMC Sep rate hike now approaching an each-way bet

• Pivotal U.S. Aug non-farm payrolls due Fri, Reuters poll consensus +56k

• Range NZ 0.58795-831, support 0.5762 0.5627, resistance 0.5995 0.6012
NZD Daily 21/55/100-DMA


DXY Daily 55-DMA

(James Connell is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

• AUD/USD +0.6% from Thur 0.7159 low as traders calibrate for Sep RBA hike

• 0.7210 resistance still solid, but challenge of 0.72825 50-month high likely

• Crucial U.S. Aug non-farm payrolls due Fri, Reuters poll consensus +56k

• Fed Governor Waller predictably leaning towards FFR hold, UST yields soften

• Futures pricing now implies 50.7% probability of no change from FOMC Sep 16

• Overnight range 0.7164-0.7208 support 0.6920, resistance 0.7210 0.7282
AUD Daily 21/55/100-DMA

(James Connell is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

• U.S.-listed cryptocurrency stocks rally as bitcoin touches a three-month high

• Bitcoin , the world's largest cryptocurrency, last up 4.8% at $81,105.73

• Crypto exchange Coinbase Global jumps 10.6%, while bitcoin bull Strategy gains 15%

• Trading platform Robinhood Markets gains 16.3%, while Webull adds 12%

• BTC has rallied strongly in recent weeks after U.S. President Donald Trump urged Congress to pass a crypto bill, and received a big boost after the Treasury Department's move to support ​long-dated bonds

• Crypto miners also gain ground: Riot Platforms 11.4%, Mara Holdings 10%, Bit Digital 15.8%

• Shares of American Bitcoin , backed by two eldest sons of President Trump, surge 18.4%

• Stablecoin issuer Circle Internet gains 15.8%, BTC mining machine maker Canaan jumps 23.4%

(Reporting by Arasu Kannagi Basil in Bengaluru)

• GBP$ firm in NY afternoon, +0.43% at 1.3543; Thursday range 1.3548-1.3481

• Broad USD offer amid more-hawkish BoJ policy expectations drags GBP$ higher

• $JPY down 2% on BoJ policy shift, GBP/JPY -1.8% at 210.50

• Independent of external factors, UK yields rising stokes fiscal concerns

• Friday's payrolls data in focus; Rtrs consensus f/c for NFP is +56k vs -23k in Jul

• GBP$ res 1.3548 Thurs high, 1.3575 falling 10-DMA, 1.3602 daily high Aug 27

• Supt 1.3504 daily base line, 1.3481 Thursday low, 1.3445 the flat 200-DMA

GBP$ Chart:

(Paul.Spirgel is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• Shares of silver miners jump, tracking a rise in prices of the metal [GOL/]

• Spot silver up 2.9% at $67.26/ounce, on a weaker U.S. dollar and as traders scale back September rate hike expectations after Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller's remarks that recent progress on inflation could justify keeping rates steady

• Hecla Mining gains 1.6%, Coeur Mining rises ~1%

• Canadian miners Endeavour Silver and Silvercorp Metals up 3% and 1%, respectively

• Abrdn Physical Silver Shares ETF up 2.8% and iShares Silver Trust ETF gains 3%

(Reporting by Pooja Menon in Bengaluru)

MUFG Research discusses the Fed rate outlook.

"The decision to hike in September now looks like a very close call and a lot must go the same way for the Fed to remain on hold. The decision to hike, if it happens, is unlikely to be a gamechanger for the dollar. Developments abroad also point to other central banks being more hawkish than we initially expected," MUFG notes.

"A third rate hike from the ECB is becoming a bigger risk, a hike by the BoE, the RBA and Norges bank (all not fully priced) are possible either in September or by year-end and hence rate spreads are unlikely to move dramatically in favour of the dollar. We’d also assume it more likely than not that a Fed hike could prove a one-off based on our view of a decline in energy prices, weak jobs and CPI," MUFG adds.

Sterling's path of least resistance points lower, and today's slight 0.2% GBP/USD uptick to 1.3512 masks a bear market taking shape, as British fiscal uncertainty, persistent UK inflation and Middle East-driven oil gains stoke fears of stickier global inflation.

Today's modest bounce owes little to UK fundamentals and more to a shifting BoJ narrative, with markets pricing a more hawkish path. The 1.7% slide in GBP/JPY, per LSEG Matching, better captures the current GBP zeitgeist — signaling underlying weakness.

Although the Bank of England's rate path, as indicated by LSEG's IRPR, remains relatively hawkish in the near term, the longer end of the UK yield curve reveals nervousness about the country's fiscal outlook.

Rising long-end gilt yields underscore these concerns. The volatile situation in the Middle East, with disruptions to vital energy shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, is pushing oil prices higher. This, in turn, points to a "higher for longer" inflation scenario, which is likely to further strain UK economic prospects and amplify fiscal worries, even with high short-term interest rates this is likely to continue to add downward pressure to sterling as developed market policy rates converge.

The question for markets is how long the government of PM Andy Burnham will adhere to existing fiscal rules.

As interest rates in other developed economies converge with those in the UK, the yield advantage that previously supported sterling's rise to its recent 6-month high of 1.3675 against the dollar is diminishing. Without a significant UK-positive catalyst, such as falling gilt yields or lower inflation, GBP/USD faces further downside risk. Bears are gaining momentum, targeting late-July lows below 1.33, with the June 24 low at 1.3140 the next significant support level.
GBP Chart:

(Paul Spirgel is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

Credit Agricole CIB Research previews the US August jobs report due on Friday.

"We expect NFP to rebound, projecting an increase of +65k following the decline of -23k in July. This would represent a clear improvement from last month, though it would still be below levels seen in the spring.  Despite an expected rebound in NFP, we look for the unemployment rate to edge back up to 4.2% from 4.1%," CACIB notes

"We also look for average hourly earnings to rise 0.3% MoM, up from 0.1% MoM in July, though this would still see the YoY rate ticking down to 3.1% from 3.2%. This would be the lowest level since 2021, reinforcing the Fed’s view that the labour market is not a major source of inflation pressure at the moment," CACIB adds

ANZ Research discusses EUR/USD outlook.

"EUR/USD broke above 1.17 in August, and this move was not driven by USD weakness alone. Euro area economic resilience has been an equally important driver. Q2 GDP rose 0.4% q/q, while the composite PMI has increased for consecutive months, with the August flash improving in both manufacturing and services. ..This should keep the ECB on a hawkish, data-dependent footing and give EUR an edge over other crosses. The 9–10 September meeting also brings the ECB's first updated staff projections since June. If the forecasts validate the resilience narrative through firmer growth and inflation holding up, it would be EUR-supportive and consistent with our base case. The key risk is that the ECB places greater emphasis on the drag from higher energy prices and revises up its inflation forecasts, which could cap further EUR/USD upside," ANZ notes.

"Overall, we remain mildly constructive on EUR/USD over the coming month, with risks skewed to the upside. A stronger-than-expected run of data and supportive ECB forecasts could see the pair extend decisively above 1.17. We continue to view dips as a buying opportunity," ANZ adds.

(No changes to expiry strikes but adds link to NFP comment on final line )

• FX option strikes expire at 10am New York/14:00 GMT on Thursday September 3

• EUR/USD: 1.1550-60 (677M), 1.1590-1.1600 (1.3BLN), 1.1610-15 (840M), 1.1625 (1.5BLN), 1.1650 (893M)

• USD/CHF: 0.8100 (374M), 0.8200 (502M). USD/CAD: 1.3835-40 (735M)

• GBP/USD: 1.3445-50 (270M), 1.3565 (424M). EUR/GBP: 0.8590 (238M)

• AUD/USD: 0.7100-15 (428M), 0.7155 (370M), 0.7185-0.7200 (566M)

• USD/JPY: 157.00-10 (643M), 157.50 (285M), 157.75-85 (758M), 158.00 (761M), 159.00 (1.6BLN)

• FX options: NFP is biggest FX risk since July Fed (Richard Pace is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• Yen rallies sharply as markets raise bets on Bank of Japan rate hikes

• Beware EBS volume on Thursday much less than intervention fueled falls earlier in 2026

• “Unusual” GPIF meeting which discussed asset allocation could help with yen demand

• USD/JPY has dropped from 158.96 to 156.17, on Thursday, on the EBS

• A recent "bull trap" could see USD/JPY slump to the August 155.20 low

• EUR/JPY slump puts the September seasonal trend at risk

EBS Intervention Volumes Chart


Daily Chart


Daily Chart


Volume Chart

(Martin Miller is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• Well touted and sizeable 1.1600 EUR/USD FX option strikes expiring this week are proving pivotal so far

• There are €1.3 billion at 1.1590-1.1600 due to expire at 10-am New York/14.00 GMT on Thursday

• Market has also been sidelined before Friday's NFP data, where options are pricing a greater risk of FX volatility

• If the data, or any other catalyst fails to move EUR/USD - a huge 2.7 billion 1.1600 strike expiries Friday

• Friday also shows €2 billion 1.1565-75 and €1.5 billion 1.1645-50 strikes which may limit any potential breakoutEUR/USD FX option strikes expiring between September 1-4 Click here

(Richard Pace is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)