• EUR/CHF meets headwind pre-0.9325 after rallying off 0.9260

• 0.9325 was EBS low on Thursday. 0.9260 was 10-week low at 1232 GMT

• Drop to 0.9260 prompted by wider French-German bond yield spread

• Hedge funds account for around 50% of French spread blowout, Fidelity says

• More EUR/CHF offers likely near 0.9350 and 0.9375

• 0.9260 is more than 2% below Wednesday's 17-month high

EURCHF

(Robert Howard is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

ANZ Research discusses EUR/USD outlook for the coming week.

"The EUR/USD pair set a fresh cycle low of 1.1215 this week, which we think is more a function of both the move up in the USD combined with France’s fiscal concerns," ANZ notes.

"EUR/USD is testing under 1.13 today. We think this is likely close to the floor. The move in the OAT-bund spreads and USD rally have all been absorbed. It is hard to see any developments in the week ahead that could take the EUR/USD lower, so we expect the 1.12– 1.13 range to hold in the week ahead," ANZ adds.

CIBC Research reviews today's US September jobs report.

"US job report came in softer than expected. September added 29K jobs in the US labour market, below the consensus expectation of 90K. Downward revisions brought employment in July and August combined 60K lower than previously expected. The downward revisions and the soft September print brings the unemployment rate to 4.2% from 4.1%. Average hourly earnings rose just 0.1% m/m, below the 0.3% consensus expectation, which pulled the annual wage growth to just 3.0%, down from 3.1%. The participation rate ticked up slightly from 61.6% to 61.8%," CIBC notes.

"This release suggests that while job gains are softer than previously thought, unemployment rate still remain low. This means the September CPI report will be a crucial data point mid-month for the upcoming FOMC meeting," CIBC adds.

• AUD/USD fell to 0.6914 overnight, buyers emerged, pair turned positive

• 0.6946 traded in Europe's morning, NY opened near 0.6935, up +0.08%

• US yield , USD/CNH drops helped lift AUD/USD

• Gold, silver, copper & stock gains also contributed to the pair's gains

• AUD/USD remained within Thursday's trading range, indicates consolidation

• Consolidation is bearish as is falling monthly RSI, hold below 10- & 200-DMAs

• US Sept. payroll report due, robust jobs data could drive AUD/USD down
audusd

(Christopher Romano is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• US-listed shares of cryptocurrency and blockchain-related companies rise as bitcoin and ethereum advance

• Bitcoin, the world's biggest cryptocurrency, rises 2.1% to $86,376.5, up for a fourth straight session; ether gains 1.9% at $2,749.3

• Crypto exchange Coinbase Global jumps 2.9%, while bitcoin bull Strategy gains 3.1%

• Trading platform Robinhood Markets gains 1.8%, while Webull adds 1.2%

• Crypto miners also gain ground: Riot Platforms 2.2%, Mara Holdings 2.7%, Bit Digital 3%

• Shares of American Bitcoin , backed by the two eldest sons of President Donald Trump, surge 3.3%; ABTC is a majority-owned subsidiary of Hut 8 , which is up 1.9%

• Stablecoin issuer Circle Internet gains 2.5%; BTC mining machine maker Canaan jumps 3.1%

• ProShares Bitcoin Strategy ETF adds 2.1%; iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF rises 2%

• Ether-linked stocks Bitmine Immersion Technologies

and Sharplink Gaming up 3.2% and 3.5%, respectively

(Reporting by Anand Gopal in Bengaluru)

Oct 2 (Reuters) - USD/JPY bulls have had a structural advantage in October, which, if past trends continue, could see the pair climb in coming weeks to break back above 160.

USD/JPY has posted a positive return in October in 18 of the last 26 years, or 69% of the time, including in each of the last five years. However, seasonality should not be considered in isolation, rather it must be corroborated by other factors.

USD/JPY remains underpinned by the continued wide policy rate gap between the Federal Reserve and the Bank of Japan.

This week USD/JPY failed on Monday and Wednesday to sustain a break under the 156.68 Fibo, a 38.2% retracement of the 150.89 to 159.03 (September) EBS rise, which is a bear trap.

A bear trap is set when a market breaks below a technical level but subsequently reverses and is usually a bullish sign.

The 14-day momentum reading is positive, further reinforcing the underlying bullish market structure for a 160 retest.
Seasonality Chart


Daily Chart


Central Bank Expectations Chart

(USD/JPY Martin Miller is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

A USD/JPY death cross — a bearish signal that occurs when the 55-day moving average falls below the 200-day moving average — may tempt traders to gamble on a decline.

While this would be a trade against the recent trend, in which the dollar rose strongly following a US interest-rate hike on September 16, there are reasons beyond the technicals why it could prove popular.

Expectations for further US rate hikes have diminished slightly following softer-than-expected inflation data and a drop in oil prices while surprisingly strong Japanese inflation data has raised the probability that the Bank of Japan raises rates further or faster than previously expected. Meanwhile, USD/JPY is trading in an area where some form of intervention to support the yen is widely anticipated. This could limit the yen's downside or trigger a rally, which could significantly enhance profits for those betting on a drop or limit their losses.

Those picking tops — selling into a rising market — may already have had some success, as the rally stalled ahead of the 55-day moving average. That average has since fallen to cap USD/JPY at a lower level and is now set to fall below the 200-day moving average, triggering the sell signal.
USDJPY

(Jeremy Boulton is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• Seems comments from Japanese officials eventually impacted USD/JPY

• From 158.21 early high and 157.92 around time of comments, off to 157.55 EBS

• EconMin Kiuchi admitted Japan out of deflation, loose BOJ policy no needed

• Granted, he did say "excessive loose policy" and not loose policy per se

• And he did say BOJ and government should continue to communicate closely

• That said, government may now be less antagonistic towards BOJ hikes

• FinMin Katayama also hinted at review of 200 or so funds worth Y7 tln

• This suggested maybe moves to spur more domestic investment

• With Tokyo CPI jumping, CPI data finally turning up with wholesale prices

• USD/JPY weakness this afternoon has the pair back into its hourly Ichi cloud

• Cloud currently 157.39-70 and ascending, 100-HMA in cloud at 157.52

• Breaks below the 100-HMA and cloud could see more USD/JPY weakness

• This however looks to be contingent on what US NFP/jobs data has in store

• Related , , on official-speak

• On Tokyo CPI , for more click on [FXBUZ]

USD/JPY hourly:

(Haruya Ida is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• FX option strikes expire at 10am New York/14:00 GMT on Friday October 2

• EUR/USD: 1.1175-80 (870M), 1.1230-40 (300M), 1.1250 (290M), 1.1300 (380M), 1.1375 (2.2BLN)

• GBP/USD: 1.3230 (592M), 1.3250 (450M). EUR/CHF: 0.9410 (231M)

• AUD/USD: 0.6915 (260M), 0.6975-85 (548M), 0.7000 (340M), 0.7050-55 (949M)

• USD/CAD: 1.4100-15 (853M), 1.4275 (270M), 1.4300 (550M)

• USD/JPY: 157.00 (2.5BLN), 157.50-55 (1BLN), 157.75 (500M), 158.00 (2.9BLN), 159.00 (1BLN)

• FX options wrap — NFP risk fuels FX hedging surge (Richard Pace is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• Shares of Antares Metals rise as much as 30% to A$0.007, their highest since September 7

• Stock logs largest intraday pct gain since January 22

• Diversified miner commences maiden drilling program at its Quinns Gold and Copper Project, located in Western Australia

• For the week, stock is up more than 60%, set for their best week ever

• YTD, stock down 18.8%

(Reporting by Tejas Harish in Bengaluru)

• Australian gold stocks rise as much as 0.4%, but poised for a weekly decline of over 1%

• Stock on track to log its worst week since early September

• Gold prices down more than 3% this week and set on track for a second consecutive weekly decline [GOL/]

• Shares of Evolution Mining and Genesis Minerals

set for a weekly drop of 4% and 7%, respectively

• YTD, AXGD slips 2.3%

(Reporting by Anjali Singh in Bengaluru)

• AUD/USD -0.05% Fri, activity subdued ahead of important U.S. jobs data

• Global bond rout has broad USD index trading near 102.20 17-month high

• AUD ultimately targeting major 0.6834 support one, break would hasten fall

• U.S. Sep non-farm payrolls due Fri, Reuters poll consensus +90k

• China suspends refined fuel exports, sources say ban extends through end Oct

• WTI elevated at $92.60 a barrel, energy supply concerns escalate yet again

• Range Asia 0.69135-30 support 0.6865 0.6834 0.6662, resistance 0.7282 0.7660
AUD Daily 21/100/200-DMA

(James Connell is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

• AUD/USD -0.25% in Asia, near ytd lows ahead of pertinent U.S. jobs data

• U.S. Sep non-farm payrolls due Fri, Reuters poll consensus +90k

• China suspends refined fuel exports, sources say ban extends through end Oct

• WTI elevated at $92.95 a barrel, energy supply concerns escalate yet again

• AUD sentiment continues to deteriorate, target 0.6865 support short term

• Range Asia 0.69135-30 support 0.6865 0.6834 0.6662, resistance 0.7282 0.7660
AUD Daily 21/55/100-DMA

(James Connell is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

• USD/JPY as high as 158.45 overnight on broadly bid USD, on high US yields

• Pulling back some in Asia so far, 158.15 to 157.83 EBS

• Market nervous ahead of US NFP/jobs data tonight, US yields higher still?

• Expectations for 90K rise in payrolls like ADP data Wednesday, jobless 4.1%

• JGB-US Treasury rate differentials at recent highs in 2s, wider in 10s

• USD/JPY move up o/n stopped in area of 158.50 200-DMA, still heavy above?

• Still well short of recent base in area of daily Ichimoku kijun at 156.64

• Support from 157.69 200-HMA, 100-HMA 157.49 below

• Hourly Ichi cloud to ascend fast, currently 157.04-14, to 157.41-90

• In options, massive $2.9 bln in expiries today at 158.00, pivot or cap?

• But total $4.7 bln in expiries between 157.00-75 too, likely supportive

• Japanese exporter and maybe some more repatriation flows from @158.00 today

• This especially with FX intervention seen back on table by many

• Related comments , , ,

• Also , on Fed/Fed-speak ,

• US markets , , ,
USD/JPY daily:


USD/JPY hourly:


USD/JPY nearby option expiries into next week:

(Haruya Ida is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• NZD/USD -1.1% wtd, hits fresh 0.5594 ytd low Thur as USD index breaks higher

• 0.5845 post-'tariff-day' 2025 low looks within reach as NZ sentiment sours

• China suspends refined fuel exports, sources say ban extends through end Oct

• Brent crude +5.1% to $103 a barrel as supply concerns re-escalates yet again

• Pertinent U.S. Sep non-farm payrolls due Fri, Reuters poll consensus +90K

• Range NZ 0.5601-085, support 0.5581 0.5485, resistance 0.5995 0.6012
DXY Daily 55/100/200-DMA


NZD Daily 21/55/100-DMA

(James Connell is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

• AUD/USD +0.4% from Thur 0.6904 3-month low after breaching 0.6920 support

• Pair also traded below 52-WMA (0.6919) for first time in over 13-months

• China suspends refined fuel exports, sources say ban extends through end Oct

• DXY hits 102.20 - highest in over 16-months - as global bond rout continues

• Brent crude +5.9% to $103.80 a barrel, Gold +0.5%, Copper down 0.8%

• Bearish AUD signals compounding, next short-term target 0.6865 support zone

• Overnight range 0.6904-56 support 0.6865 0.6834 0.6662, resistance 0.7282
AUD Weekly 52-WMA


DXY Daily 55/100/200-DMA

(James Connell is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

JP Morgan highlights a scope for EUR/USD upside on corporate hedging shift.

"The dollar rally over the past month has pushed DXY above 100 and the euro below 1.14 vs the dollar. Spec positioning has moved accordingly, with the DXY having reached its most overbought level before retracing and the EUR positioning shifted further into negative territory. 

Our momentum signals in are similarly suggesting that momentum traders, such as CTAs are also short the euro and long the dollar," JPM notes.

"Corporate hedging shifts might be making the euro trading long vs the dollar even as spec investors are rather short," JPM adds.

• NY opened near 1.1295 after 1.1337 traded overnight, pair's drop extended in NY

• US yield rallied the USD; USD/CNH climbed above 6.7200

• US-German spreads widened which added weight on EUR/USD

• Drops in gold, silver and equities helped underpin the USD buying

• EUR/USD fell sharply, hit a 16-month low of 1.1215 before bouncing a bit

• The pair sat near 1.1230 late in the session, it was down -0.86% in Ny's afternoon

• Techs are bearish; RSIs indicate downward momentum, Bolli bands are widening

• Investors will focus on the US September jobs report as a key risk for Friday
eurusd

(Christopher Romano is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

Danske Research previews tomorrow's US September jobs report.

"Broad USD remained on a strong footing yesterday with EUR/USD trading lower especially towards the European evening. Yesterday's move looked unusual in light of the steepening of the UST curve, modest rebound in term premia and inflation data from both Europe and the US that at face value should have had the opposite effect. This could reflect a shift in positioning towards USD longs, which remain strong portfolio diversifiers during risk-off sessions like yesterday, or fiscal concerns in EUR (not least with OAT-Bund spread still widening).

But it could also mean that the market is more prone towards a tactical correction towards weaker USD, in case oil prices suddenly tick lower, or if tomorrow's US Jobs Report surprises to the soft side," Danske notes.

"The latter is not our base case though, as we continue to forecast NFP at +100k, and remain even more confident after the stronger-than-expected ADP reading yesterday (+90k, cons. +75k). We remain structurally bullish on USD," Danske adds.

LONDON, Oct 1 - Cable is back testing the 1.32 handle as the fixed-income sell-off gathers momentum. With 30-year gilt yields probing above 6%, the rates backdrop is increasingly difficult for sterling, while the dollar remains the clear beneficiary as flight to safety takes hold.

The sharp widening in the Bund-OAT spread has added to the weakness in the euro, the result of which has also weighed on GBP/USD. This is largely a euro-centric move, given that the EUR is under performing across the board, including through EUR/GBP, which has so far helped cushion cable and kept it from the 2026 low at 1.3140.

Elsewhere, the potential for a US diesel export ban continues to hang over markets after reports that the US has told France and Germany to release diesel stocks or risk an export ban. Although, any relief for US prices would likely be short-lived and have only a limited impact on the broader inflation story, the implications for Europe and the UK are clearly negative. That in turn also presents a headwind for EUR and GBP, making it difficult to lean against the dollar's strength.

Even though from a risk-reward perspective, chasing USD higher looks increasingly unappealing. The current combination of rising gilt yields, widening European spreads and a flight to safe-havens means that the dollar can still grind higher, leaving cable under pressure in the near term. The next downside objective remains the 2026 low at 1.3140.
gbpusd hourly chart

Justin McQueen is a Reuters market analyst. (The views expressed are his own) ((Email: ))

CIBC Research discusses USD/CAD outlook and see the pair averaging 1.42 in Q4 before retracting towards 1.39 in Q1 of 2027.

'With the Federal Reserve pulling the trigger on hiking rates, the broad USD has been flying higher, leaving the CAD under pressure, along with other major currencies. And the Fed is set to follow up the September move with another hike in October, given inflation risks tied to still elevated oil prices. That will leave a wider interest rate differential with the BoC, as we don’t agree with the market pricing in a BoC hike this year. Any upside to headline inflation in Canada from elevated oil prices will be offset by the economic slack that has opened up as a result of trade tensions with the US, which is likely to push Canada’s unemployment rate up to 6.6% in the fourth quarter. That will leave CAD under pressure in the near term, with USDCAD likely averaging 1.42 in Q4 ‘26," CIBC notes.

"It’s likely that Trump will be more willing to make concessions for an Iran deal following the midterm elections, which could mean that the October hike will be the Fed's last for this cycle. We also expect trade negotiations with the US to result in the Section 338 tariffs on Canada being rolled back, and for a deal to be reached that avoids the tariffs that were threatened to come into effect in January. We are therefore more optimistic for the loonie in 2027, when prospects for an economic expansion tied to a trade deal with the US could prompt the BoC to hike rates early in the year. We see USDCAD reaching 1.37 by mid-2027," CIBC adds.

(adds link for stretched situation)

• No inflation is anticipated that may influence EUR/USD

• US and EZ 5 year-5 year inflation swaps barely changed in 2026

• No meaningful divergence in interest rates is anticipated

• One year EUR/USD forward swap was 170 pts in Dec 2025, 166 now

• Measures of both US and eurozone inflation are slightly elevated

• EUR/USD has sunk from 1.2084 to 1.1265 in 2026

• Traders have sold short and the drop is becoming stretched

• US and eurozone 5 year-5year inflation swaps, one year
forward swap and EUR/USD

(Jeremy Boulton is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

Morgan Stanley Research previews the US September jobs report due on Friday.

"We estimate September payrolls +65k and private payrolls +75k. The unemployment rate moves sideways at 4.1%, on the verge of a 4.2%, as LFPR inches up. Average hourly earnings remain slow, rising 0.2% m/m and 3.1% y/y," MS notes.

"Our forecast reflects continued strong labor demand, with only limited reversal of the industry payrolls that were above trend in August. Despite resilience in payrolls, the unemployment rate moves sideways (or up) as labor force participation moves sideways (or up).

The Fed's clearly not concerned about faltering labor demand. But a drop in the unemployment rate below 4.0% would further raise the chance of an October rate hike," MS adds.

Goldman Sachs Research summarizes the key findings form the COFER Q2 Data.

"The International Monetary Fund (IMF) recently released the Currency Composition of Official Foreign Exchange Reserves (COFER) for Q2 2026.

"During the past quarter, the headline share of U.S. Dollar (USD) reserves ticked down, though it remains just above the low reached in Q4 2025. Meanwhile, the valuation-adjusted share of Euro (EUR) reserves increased, while Japanese Yen (JPY) reserves declined. Elsewhere, the valuation-adjusted shares of other reserves remained roughly stable," GS notes.