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CIBC Research previews the US July jobs report due on next Friday.
US hiring is expected to remain modest in July, albeit slightly stronger than in the prior month. The 75K gain expected in payrolls would be broadly consistent with a labour market seeing little hiring but also little firing as well. Having drifted up a little in the prior month, initial jobless claims fell back again in July," CIBC notes.
"The separate household survey is expected to show a rebound in employment following a prior month decline, but potentially an even larger rebound in the size of the labour force due to increased participation. While the national participation rate will drift down over time due to aging demographics, the prior month’s sharp drop in prime aged participation looked suspiciously large and could partially rebound. Higher participation could see the jobless rate tick up slightly to 4.3%," CIBC adds.
