• U.S.-listed cryptocurrency stocks rally as bitcoin touches a three-month high

• Bitcoin , the world's largest cryptocurrency, last up 4.8% at $81,105.73

• Crypto exchange Coinbase Global jumps 10.6%, while bitcoin bull Strategy gains 15%

• Trading platform Robinhood Markets gains 16.3%, while Webull adds 12%

• BTC has rallied strongly in recent weeks after U.S. President Donald Trump urged Congress to pass a crypto bill, and received a big boost after the Treasury Department's move to support ​long-dated bonds

• Crypto miners also gain ground: Riot Platforms 11.4%, Mara Holdings 10%, Bit Digital 15.8%

• Shares of American Bitcoin , backed by two eldest sons of President Trump, surge 18.4%

• Stablecoin issuer Circle Internet gains 15.8%, BTC mining machine maker Canaan jumps 23.4%

(Reporting by Arasu Kannagi Basil in Bengaluru)

• GBP$ firm in NY afternoon, +0.43% at 1.3543; Thursday range 1.3548-1.3481

• Broad USD offer amid more-hawkish BoJ policy expectations drags GBP$ higher

• $JPY down 2% on BoJ policy shift, GBP/JPY -1.8% at 210.50

• Independent of external factors, UK yields rising stokes fiscal concerns

• Friday's payrolls data in focus; Rtrs consensus f/c for NFP is +56k vs -23k in Jul

• GBP$ res 1.3548 Thurs high, 1.3575 falling 10-DMA, 1.3602 daily high Aug 27

• Supt 1.3504 daily base line, 1.3481 Thursday low, 1.3445 the flat 200-DMA

GBP$ Chart:

(Paul.Spirgel is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• Shares of silver miners jump, tracking a rise in prices of the metal [GOL/]

• Spot silver up 2.9% at $67.26/ounce, on a weaker U.S. dollar and as traders scale back September rate hike expectations after Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller's remarks that recent progress on inflation could justify keeping rates steady

• Hecla Mining gains 1.6%, Coeur Mining rises ~1%

• Canadian miners Endeavour Silver and Silvercorp Metals up 3% and 1%, respectively

• Abrdn Physical Silver Shares ETF up 2.8% and iShares Silver Trust ETF gains 3%

(Reporting by Pooja Menon in Bengaluru)

MUFG Research discusses the Fed rate outlook.

"The decision to hike in September now looks like a very close call and a lot must go the same way for the Fed to remain on hold. The decision to hike, if it happens, is unlikely to be a gamechanger for the dollar. Developments abroad also point to other central banks being more hawkish than we initially expected," MUFG notes.

"A third rate hike from the ECB is becoming a bigger risk, a hike by the BoE, the RBA and Norges bank (all not fully priced) are possible either in September or by year-end and hence rate spreads are unlikely to move dramatically in favour of the dollar. We’d also assume it more likely than not that a Fed hike could prove a one-off based on our view of a decline in energy prices, weak jobs and CPI," MUFG adds.

Sterling's path of least resistance points lower, and today's slight 0.2% GBP/USD uptick to 1.3512 masks a bear market taking shape, as British fiscal uncertainty, persistent UK inflation and Middle East-driven oil gains stoke fears of stickier global inflation.

Today's modest bounce owes little to UK fundamentals and more to a shifting BoJ narrative, with markets pricing a more hawkish path. The 1.7% slide in GBP/JPY, per LSEG Matching, better captures the current GBP zeitgeist — signaling underlying weakness.

Although the Bank of England's rate path, as indicated by LSEG's IRPR, remains relatively hawkish in the near term, the longer end of the UK yield curve reveals nervousness about the country's fiscal outlook.

Rising long-end gilt yields underscore these concerns. The volatile situation in the Middle East, with disruptions to vital energy shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, is pushing oil prices higher. This, in turn, points to a "higher for longer" inflation scenario, which is likely to further strain UK economic prospects and amplify fiscal worries, even with high short-term interest rates this is likely to continue to add downward pressure to sterling as developed market policy rates converge.

The question for markets is how long the government of PM Andy Burnham will adhere to existing fiscal rules.

As interest rates in other developed economies converge with those in the UK, the yield advantage that previously supported sterling's rise to its recent 6-month high of 1.3675 against the dollar is diminishing. Without a significant UK-positive catalyst, such as falling gilt yields or lower inflation, GBP/USD faces further downside risk. Bears are gaining momentum, targeting late-July lows below 1.33, with the June 24 low at 1.3140 the next significant support level.
GBP Chart:

(Paul Spirgel is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

Credit Agricole CIB Research previews the US August jobs report due on Friday.

"We expect NFP to rebound, projecting an increase of +65k following the decline of -23k in July. This would represent a clear improvement from last month, though it would still be below levels seen in the spring.  Despite an expected rebound in NFP, we look for the unemployment rate to edge back up to 4.2% from 4.1%," CACIB notes

"We also look for average hourly earnings to rise 0.3% MoM, up from 0.1% MoM in July, though this would still see the YoY rate ticking down to 3.1% from 3.2%. This would be the lowest level since 2021, reinforcing the Fed’s view that the labour market is not a major source of inflation pressure at the moment," CACIB adds

ANZ Research discusses EUR/USD outlook.

"EUR/USD broke above 1.17 in August, and this move was not driven by USD weakness alone. Euro area economic resilience has been an equally important driver. Q2 GDP rose 0.4% q/q, while the composite PMI has increased for consecutive months, with the August flash improving in both manufacturing and services. ..This should keep the ECB on a hawkish, data-dependent footing and give EUR an edge over other crosses. The 9–10 September meeting also brings the ECB's first updated staff projections since June. If the forecasts validate the resilience narrative through firmer growth and inflation holding up, it would be EUR-supportive and consistent with our base case. The key risk is that the ECB places greater emphasis on the drag from higher energy prices and revises up its inflation forecasts, which could cap further EUR/USD upside," ANZ notes.

"Overall, we remain mildly constructive on EUR/USD over the coming month, with risks skewed to the upside. A stronger-than-expected run of data and supportive ECB forecasts could see the pair extend decisively above 1.17. We continue to view dips as a buying opportunity," ANZ adds.

(No changes to expiry strikes but adds link to NFP comment on final line )

• FX option strikes expire at 10am New York/14:00 GMT on Thursday September 3

• EUR/USD: 1.1550-60 (677M), 1.1590-1.1600 (1.3BLN), 1.1610-15 (840M), 1.1625 (1.5BLN), 1.1650 (893M)

• USD/CHF: 0.8100 (374M), 0.8200 (502M). USD/CAD: 1.3835-40 (735M)

• GBP/USD: 1.3445-50 (270M), 1.3565 (424M). EUR/GBP: 0.8590 (238M)

• AUD/USD: 0.7100-15 (428M), 0.7155 (370M), 0.7185-0.7200 (566M)

• USD/JPY: 157.00-10 (643M), 157.50 (285M), 157.75-85 (758M), 158.00 (761M), 159.00 (1.6BLN)

• FX options: NFP is biggest FX risk since July Fed (Richard Pace is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• Yen rallies sharply as markets raise bets on Bank of Japan rate hikes

• Beware EBS volume on Thursday much less than intervention fueled falls earlier in 2026

• “Unusual” GPIF meeting which discussed asset allocation could help with yen demand

• USD/JPY has dropped from 158.96 to 156.17, on Thursday, on the EBS

• A recent "bull trap" could see USD/JPY slump to the August 155.20 low

• EUR/JPY slump puts the September seasonal trend at risk

EBS Intervention Volumes Chart


Daily Chart


Daily Chart


Volume Chart

(Martin Miller is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• Well touted and sizeable 1.1600 EUR/USD FX option strikes expiring this week are proving pivotal so far

• There are €1.3 billion at 1.1590-1.1600 due to expire at 10-am New York/14.00 GMT on Thursday

• Market has also been sidelined before Friday's NFP data, where options are pricing a greater risk of FX volatility

• If the data, or any other catalyst fails to move EUR/USD - a huge 2.7 billion 1.1600 strike expiries Friday

• Friday also shows €2 billion 1.1565-75 and €1.5 billion 1.1645-50 strikes which may limit any potential breakoutEUR/USD FX option strikes expiring between September 1-4 Click here

(Richard Pace is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• Another drop in USD/JPY to the mid 156's puts it down by 300 JPY pips in the last 24 hours

• USD/JPY option premiums are significantly higher as implied volatility spikes, with JPY calls at the fore

• Benchmark 1-month implied vol 7.3 to 9.75 since Wednesday - biggest gains since late July intervention when it peaked 10.0

• 1-month 25 delta risk reversals 1.0 higher at 2.7 - (3.0 was the peak amid late July official intervention)

• Dealers report demand for JPY call strikes as low as 150.00 with expiries over coming months

• All JPY call options (strike below spot) will increase in value amid lower spot/higher implied volatility
USD/JPY FXO implied volatility


USD/JPY 25 delta risk reversals

(Richard Pace is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• USD/JPY down hard since Wednesday from 160.39 to 156.36

• Follows a period of record intervention to support the yen

• Talk of semi-official institutions buying yen

• It is half-year end this month - possible source of yen buying

• Sustained downside pressure (little/no bounce) suggest bigger drop

• There is a 77% chance BOJ hikes on Sep 18 to support yen

•
USDJPY

(Jeremy Boulton is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• FX option strikes expire at 10am New York/14:00 GMT on Thursday September 3

• EUR/USD: 1.1550-60 (677M), 1.1590-1.1600 (1.3BLN), 1.1610-15 (840M), 1.1625 (1.5BLN), 1.1650 (893M)

• USD/CHF: 0.8100 (374M), 0.8200 (502M). USD/CAD: 1.3835-40 (735M)

• GBP/USD: 1.3445-50 (270M), 1.3565 (424M). EUR/GBP: 0.8590 (238M)

• AUD/USD: 0.7100-15 (428M), 0.7155 (370M), 0.7185-0.7200 (566M)

• USD/JPY: 157.00-10 (643M), 157.50 (285M), 157.75-85 (758M), 158.00 (761M), 159.00 (1.6BLN)

• Wednesday's FX options wrap - USD calls gain traction as FX risks mount (Richard Pace is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• USD/THB testing 33.0 support, retreat in DXY and higher oil prices weigh

• Pair last at 33.01-04, traded amid 32.97-33.19 range so far

• Profit taking from longs after cap at 33.38 adds to selling pressure

• Below 33.0 to see 32.80, 32.60 levels

• DXY last at 99.40, ranged 99.37-99.61 so far

• SET +0.44%, spot gold last +0.87% to $4425/bbl

• Brent -0.70% to $94.96/bbl, WTI -0.52% to $90.54/bbl
THB

(Catherine Tan is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are her own.)

• Shares of Many Peaks Minerals rise as much as 5.8% to A$0.91, on track for its biggest intraday pct gain since August 20 if gains hold

• Gold explorer confirms indications of multiple gold-bearing zones after deep drilling the northern extremity of its Ouarigue prospect

• The standout drilling hole, FNDC135, provided 2.64g gold per ton of rock over 36 metres from 600m depth, and a separate zone returned 1.46g of gold per ton over 5 metres higher up at 581.65m

• Co says drilling beneath this northern corridor also resulted in 8.76g of gold per ton over 2 metres at a depth of 434.1 metres at a different drilling hole

• Stock is down 9% YTD, including the day's moves

(Reporting by Rudrannsh Mehra in Bengaluru)

• AUD/USD flat Thur, but upswing toward 0.72825 50-month high seems likely

• AU Jul balance on goods +1.92 bln (poll 1.45 bln), goods exports -3.3% m/m

• RBA's Sarah Hunter & Dr James Bishop appearing before Senate Committee Thur

• Futures pricing implies 61.0% chance of 25 bps RBA hike in Sep

• WTI -0.3% in Asia, but remains above $90 a barrel on supply concerns

• Pivotal U.S. Aug non-farm payrolls due Fri, Reuters poll consensus +56k

• Range Asia 0.71615-70 support 0.6920 0.6866, resistance 0.7210 0.7282
AUD Daily 21/55/100-DMA

(James Connell is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

• Australian gold stocks rise as much as 2.6%, the biggest intraday pct gain since Aug 20

• Gold prices rebound from near one-month low after U.S. dollar and Treasury yields retreat from recent highs [GOL/]

• Resolute Mining no.2 percent gainer on benchmark

after gaining 4%; Perseus Mining adds 3.7%

• YTD, AXGD up 3.4%

(Reporting by Nichiket Sunil in Bengaluru)

• USD better bid against other major currencies but USD/JPY down hard

• Move down in Asia PM trading to 159.44 before bouncing to 159.92

• Move down attributed to news of Japan GPIF portfolio shifts

• Another wave of selling later, plunge to 158.21 EBS on rate check rumours

• Some bounce since but upside now seen limited, Asia so far 158.67-93

• $1.6 bln in option expiries today at 159.00 strike to help cap upside

• To downside, 158.00 $761 mln, total $1.7 bln between 157.00-85 too

• Technically, 200-DMA at 158.47 today briefly pierced, back above now

• This 200-DMA a likely pivot possibility going forward

• JGB-US Treasury rate differentials narrowing again, 2s around 253 bps

• JGB 10s up to 3.0% and resulting in shift in foreign investor thinking

• More hawkish BOJ stance helping, hike this month seen as almost a given

• BOJ Takata-speak yesterday suggested new dawn of sorts in timing of hikes

• Many players also reassessing JPY-funded carries

• Japanese importer buys to continue but exporters will help cap rallies

• Related comments , , , also

• US markets , , ,

• On US economy , , , US-Iran

• On BOJ Takata-speak , for more click on [FXBUZ]

USD/JPY daily:


USD/JPY hourly:


JGB-US Treasury 2-year interest rate differential:

(Haruya Ida is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• NZD/USD +0.8% from Wed 0.58025 low, but remains under pressure overall

• RBNZ indicates tightening cycle will slow in wake of Wed's 25 bps hike

• Pair now targets 0.5762 support as traders recalibrate OCR expectations

• NZ Q2 terms of trade index -9.0% (poll -3.9%), import prices +13.8% q/q

• U.S. Aug factory activity slows; USD index -0.1%, UST yields moderating

• Pivotal U.S. Aug non-farm payrolls due Fri, Reuters poll consensus +56k

• Range NZ 0.58456-54, support 0.5762 0.5627, resistance 0.5995 0.6012
NZD Daily 21/55/100-DMA

(James Connell is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

• AUD/USD +0.7% from Wed 0.7122 low as pair resets sights on topside target

• Futures pricing now implies 66.1% chance of 25 bps RBA hike in Sep

• Break above 0.7210 would pave way for challenge of 0.72825 50-month high

• RBA's Sarah Hunter & Dr James Bishop appear before Senate Committee Thur

• U.S.-Iran war re-escalation fuelling anxiety over energy supply & costs

• U.S. Aug factory activity slows; DXY -0.1%, UST yields softer, Gold +1.3%

• Crucial U.S. Aug non-farm payrolls due Fri, Reuters poll consensus +56k

• Overnight range 0.7122-755 support 0.6920 0.6866, resistance 0.7210 0.7282
AUD Daily 21/55/100-DMA

(James Connell is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

• USD/JPY has fallen from 160.69 to 159.44, on Wednesday, according to EBS data

• Rising tenkan line, the midpoint of the last nine trading sessions, supports at 159.38

• Spot remains on course for an eventual break above the 160.63 Fibo

• 160.63 Fibo is a 61.8% retrace of 163.99-155.20 intervention fueled drop

• EUR/JPY slump puts the September seasonal trend at risk

• BOJ Ueda signals chance of September rate hike, hawkish Takata call for "nimble" hike

• Bessent urged BOJ chief to combat weak yen with 'decisive' monetary steps

Daily Chart

(Martin Miller is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• EUR/USD sank 1.1660 to 1.1577 after comments from Fed's Warsh on Aug 28

• Pair edges lower to 1.1574 on Sep 2 toward 100-DMA at 1.1567

• Pair should revisit Aug 13 low at 1.1512 if it falls below 1.1555

• Traders short euros covered $3bln of $8.5 short position in week to Aug 28

• Remaining $5.5 billion short will restrain EUR/USD downside

• There is room for a drop toward 1.1491 base 20-day Bollingers

•
EURUSD

(Jeremy Boulton is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• FX options are forward-looking, volatility driven derivatives and can offer clues on FX sentiment

• Their price action shows a market getting more anxious about the downside risks to EUR/USD

• Recent trade flows have shown increased demand for EUR put/USD call options (downside strikes)

• These would benefit/protect those holding them if EUR/USD loses further ground

• One of many recent trades was a mid October 1.1400 strike on almost €1-billion late Tuesday

• Risk reversal contracts have increased premiums for EUR puts over calls - 1-week 25 delta paid 0.6 Wednesday

• The benchmark 1-month expiry risk reversal now 0.35 EUR puts over calls from a neutral bias last week

• Related - FX options wrap - Volatility premium plays down mounting FX risks
EUR/USD 25 delta risk reversals

(Richard Pace is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

Morgan Stanley Research previews the US August jobs report due on Friday.

"We had expected payrolls to decelerate from their March-May pace, but not quite as much as they did: July slowed sharply, exaggerated by local education payrolls, and earlier months were revised softer. We expect August payrolls reaccelerate slightly, with private payrolls rising 40k and headline payrolls up 65k, including a temporary rebound in those education payrolls," MS notes.

"We are assuming a 15k drag on payrolls from the revocation of Temporary Protected Status (TPS) for unauthorized Haitian mmigrants, which cancelled their work authorizations. The TPS-affected Haitians account for an estimated 160k of payrolls. Our forecast assumes about 10% lost employment by the time of the August payroll survey," MS adds.