Compared with the surge in European gas prices after Russia's invasion of Ukraine in 2022, the near-doubling in prices since June is relatively modest and seems less concerning for EUR/USD traders who are already betting on a drop.

In 2022, gas prices rose more than 30-fold, and the eurozone current account flipped from a large surplus to a substantial deficit. This year, by contrast, a large surplus has been maintained even as gas prices in Europe have roughly doubled. The price of natural gas in North America is unchanged.

Unsurprisingly, the impact on EUR/USD has been much more modest. The pair collapsed from around 1.18 in August 2022 toward 0.98 back then, whereas this year it eased from roughly 1.18 at the start of the conflict in the Middle East to just below 1.14 before rebounding above 1.17.

Positioning has also shifted: traders who were betting about $23 billion on euro gains in February 2026 are now wagering around $6 billion on a decline, while volatility, as reflected by the one-month options benchmark, which had surged into double digits in 2022, has slumped since March and is not far from all-time lows.EURUSD, betting, natgas in Europe and North America,
eurozone c/a and volatility

(Jeremy Boulton is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• AUD/USD drops to 0.7138, its lowest level since September 2

• U.S. dollar stronger on hawkish shift in Fed expectations

• Growing consensus Fed to raise rates this week, and again in December

• Ahead of Fed meeting, Trump says U.S. should have world's lowest interest rate

• 0.7122 (Sept 2 low) and 0.7100 are AUD/USD support points

• CFTC data: net AUD short shrank by 11% to 34,870 contracts in week to Sept 8

AUDUSD

(Robert Howard is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• Cable falls to 1.3488 as hawkish shift in Fed expectations buoys USD

• Fed meeting starts Tuesday. Safe-haven dollar also benefits from higher oil prices

• 1.3479 was Friday low as USD rose on hotter than expected 0.3% US core CPI print

• Friday low was four pips shy of Sept 2 low. 1.3535 was rally high from 1.3479

• UK PM Burnham to meet business leaders on Monday to discuss growth

• CFTC data: net GBP short rose 18% to 58,836 contracts in week to Sept 8

GBPUSD

(Robert Howard is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• FX option strikes expire at 10am New York/14:00 GMT on Monday September 14

• EUR/USD: 1.1500 (1.2BLN), 1.1545-50 (1.6BLN), 1.1575-80 (1.1BLN), 1.1585-90 (320M), 1.1600 (1.2BLN)

• 1.1610-15 (754M), 1.1620-25 (2.3BLN), 1.1630-35 (746M), 1.1645-55 (1.3BLN)

• USD/CHF: 0.8170 (400M), 0.8195 (446M)

• GBP/USD: 1.3390-1.3400 (383M), 1.3515 (137M), 1.3540-45 (186M)

• AUD/USD: 0.7125-30 (414M), 0.7160 (200M), 0.7175 (376M).

NZD/USD: 0.5750 (620M), 0.5830 (292M)

• USD/CAD: 1.3750 (315M), 1.3925-30 (332M)

• USD/JPY: 152.00 (203M), 154.00 (863M). EUR/JPY: 177.50 (260M)

• Friday's FX options wrap - US CPI delivers the jolt, but not the follow-through (Richard Pace is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• AUD/USD +0.1% from Mon 0.7141 low, but sellers likely near Fri 0.7168 close

• Brent crude rallies 3.1% to $107.90 a barrel in Asia trading Mon

• Saudi pipeline damage & fresh weekend attacks compounds oil supply concerns

• Markets expect 25 bps FFR hike Wed after higher-than-expected U.S. core CPI

• RBA officials (including Bullock) before parliamentary committee on Fri

• AUD bounces from lower hourly Bollinger band, but may resume downside drift

• Break below 0.7122 support zone would likely spur further short-term losses

• Range Asia 0.7141-68 support 0.7122 0.6920, resistance 0.72825 0.7661
Brent Crude Daily 21-DMA


AUD Hourly Bollinger Study


AUD Daily 21/55/100-DMA

(James Connell is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

• AUD/USD -0.3% Mon, support dissipating as oil supply concern returns

• Pair pushing lower hourly Bollinger band, will slow downside progress

• However, break below 0.7122 support zone would re-accelerate move

• WTI +3.5% following Saudi East-West pipeline damage & fresh weekend attacks

• Investors anticipate FFR hike Wed after higher-than-expected U.S. core CPI

• RBA Assistant Governor Sarah Hunter fireside chat in Canberra Mon

• Range Asia 0.7141-68 support 0.7122 0.6920, resistance 0.72825 0.7661
AUD Hourly Bollinger Study


AUD Daily 21/100/200-DMA

(James Connell is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

• Shares of Kalgoorlie Gold Mining fall 13% to A$0.02, their lowest level since February 6

• Shares mark their biggest intraday pct loss since August 4

• Gold explorer announces A$2.3 million ($1.64 million)placement at A$0.02 per share, a 13% discount to last close

• Says proceeds will be used to accelerate exploration activities throughout its Pinjin gold project in Western Australia

• Co also announces entitlement offer to raise further A$1.1 million

• More than 4 mln shares change hands, about 3.8x the 30-day average

• YTD, stock down 60%, including session's moves

($1 = 1.3990 Australian dollars)

(Reporting by Subhalakshmi Dey in Bengaluru)

• USD/JPY 153.38-79 EBS in Asia so far, heavy despite strong US CPI data

• Friday saw push down from 154.61 to 153.24, IMM CTA data may have helped

• IMM CTAs reversed positions from net shorts to net longs, 1st time since Feb

• US yields higher upping Fed rate hike bets this week but shrugged off

• Wider JGB-US Treasury rate differentials also shrugged off

• Higher crude oil prices also look to have been shrugged off

• Japanese exporters, other again sellers in early Asia trade

• Weak technicals, test of 152.89 low Sept 8, 152.28 trough February 12 eyed

• 152.10 low of year on January 27 and 152.00 also in speculator sights

• USD/JPY back below 153.79 100-HMA, 153.80-154.10 hourly Ichimoku cloud

• Underlying resistance at also descending 200-HMA up at 155.41

• In options, only significant expiries today 152.00 $503 mln, 154.00 $863 mln

• Related comments , , ,

• Also

• US markets , , , on crude

• On IMM CTAs , , US CPI

• On Middle East , , for more click on [FXBUZ]

USD/JPY daily:


USD/JPY hourly:

(Haruya Ida is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• NZD/USD +0.1% Mon after weekend attacks on Saudi Arabia & ships in the Gulf

• Saudi East-West pipeline damage stoking oil supply fears, WTI +2.5%

• U.S. Aug core CPI +0.3% m/m (poll +0.2%), investors expect Fed hike Wed

• NZD targets 0.5762 support zone, break below will accelerate sell off

• RBNZ Assistant Governor Angus McGregor due to speak Thur

• Range NZ 0.58099-19, support 0.5795 0.5762, resistance 0.5995 0.6012
NZD Daily 21/100/200-DMA

(James Connell is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

• AUD/USD -0.1% Mon amid fresh attacks on Saudi Arabia & ships in the Gulf

• Saudi East-West pipeline damage puts global oil supply under further strain

• U.S. Aug core CPI +0.3% m/m (poll +0.2%), markets expect FFR hike Wed

• RBA Assistant Governor Sarah Hunter fireside chat in Canberra Mon

• AUD 11-week rally intact, but break below 0.7122 support would be terminal

• Pair's target remains 0.72825 50-month high, Fed & RBA outcome dependent

• Range Asia 0.7160-68 support 0.7122 0.6920, resistance 0.72825 0.7661
AUD Daily 21/55/100-DMA

(James Connell is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

The euro slipped against a mixed dollar on Friday after slightly hotter-than-expected U.S. CPI boosted expectations of a Fed rate hike next week to a near certainty.

Headline CPI increased 0.4% in August, matching the median estimate, while the core reading rose an above-forecast 0.3%, its largest increase since April. Annual readings of 3.4% and 2.4%, respectively, remain above the Fed target of 2%.

Markets odds of a Fed hike next week jumped to 90% from about 70% on Thursday.

U.S. consumer sentiment weakened in early September as higher gasoline prices and trade tensions fueled inflation concerns.

WTI oil held near $100/bbl as Iran planned a regional meeting to discuss commercial shipping routes, while Houthi militants advanced in Yemen.

EIA said Saudi Arabia's crude supply fell to its lowest level in more than three decades in August.

As an energy summit approaches, the White House is considering using the Defense Production Act to boost U.S. refining capacity.

ECB President Christine Lagarde said the central bank will remain data-dependent, while chief economist Philip Lane warned that energy prices could hit consumption this autumn.

On the eve of a BRICs summit, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Russian President Vladimir Putin agreed to deepen India-Russia ties.

DXY edged up and the volatility curve steepened with one-month DYX implieds slipping to 5.48% as bearish risk reversals eased.

EUR/USD eased amid Fed tightening expectations though failed to move out of its September range near 1.16 as bearish momentum faded.

EUR/CHF rose to its highest level since April 2025, with Swiss National Bank Chairman Martin Schlegel warning that higher energy prices are boosting hike expectations outside Switzerland.

GBP/USD remained rangebound despite firmer Fed hike odds as resilient UK data keeps sterling underpinned above its 1.3475 September low, with nearby resistance around 1.3550.

USD/JPY slid after failing to hold CPI-driven gains, though momentum eased near its 153.30 100-week moving average as U.S. shares and yields advanced, leaving resistance in place near 154.60 and the 155 pivot level.

AUD/USD rebounded from a CPI-driven drop to 0.7150 and recovered to 0.7187; a move back above the 21-DMA keeps the bias bullish, with support at 0.7150 and resistance at 0.7187.

Treasury yields were up as much as 8 basis points as the curve flattened. The 2s-10s curve fell about 4 basis points to +32.6bp, lowest since July.

The S&P 500 rose nearly 1%, fueled by tech and consumer shares.

WTI oil slid 2.2%, pulling back from a near 4-month high above $100/bbl.

Gold gained 1.1% on broadly higher precious metal prices while copper was flat.

Heading toward the close: EUR/USD -0.16%, USD/JPY -0.44%, GBP/USD +0.07%, AUD/USD +0.19%, DXY +0.10%, EUR/JPY -0.61%, GBP/JPY -0.38%, AUD/JPY -0.24%.(Editing by Burton Frierson Robert Fullem is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• NY opened near 0.7170 after AUD/USD moved upward in overnight trading

• The pair fell sharply as USD, US yields rallied after Aug. CPI

• The pair fell below the 21-DMA, hit a 7-session low of 0.7150

• Post-CPI USD, yield gains were quickly erased however & both turned down

• Gold, silver, copper, equities rallied sharply and USD/CNH turned lower

• AUD/USD rallied above the 21-DMA, hit the 10-DMA traded 0.7187

• Diverging daily RSI, move back above 21-DMA give daily techs a bullish lean
audusd

(Christopher Romano is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

Bank of America Global Research reviews today's US August CPI report.

"Headline CPI rose 0.4% m/m, in line with expectations. However, core CPI came in firmer than expected at 0.3% m/m (0.29% unrounded), leaving the y/y rate unchanged at 3.4%. The details also prompted us to revise our August core PCE tracking estimate up from 0.26% m/m to 0.30% m/m.," BofA notes.

"Combined with current market pricing of 21bp for next week's FOMC meeting, today's report should greenlight a Fed hike," BofA adds.

• GBP/USD choppy in NY trade, U.S. CPI core m/m came in firm, but the move lacks conviction

• Dollar’s failure to bid on ostensibly positive data suggests the path of least resistance is lower

• Market-implied odds now price an 87% chance of a Fed hike next week, up from 67% pre-CPI

• UK GDP beat forecasts, supporting a more constructive tone for sterling

• Meanwhile, the currency remains surprisingly resilient to the moves higher in yields and oil

• Spot essentially flat on the week, underscoring ongoing indecision
GBPUSD daily chart

Justin McQueen is a Reuters market analyst. (The views expressed are his own). ((Email: ))

ANZ Research discusses the key EUR/USD technical levels to watch going into next week's FOMC meeting.

"Positioning is becoming more supportive. EUR/USD noncommercial net shorts narrowed, leaving scope for further short covering if ECB expectations remain firm. Next week’s euro area ZEW survey data are the key domestic releases. However, the FOMC will likely be the larger catalyst for EUR/USD through its impact on relative rate expectations," ANZ notes.

"Technicals remain constructive but momentum is flattening, consistent with consolidation ahead of the FOMC rather than trend continuation. EUR/USD is trading between 1.1615, the 38.2% retracement of the January–June decline, and 1.1634, the 200- dma. The 50- and 100-dma are rising and providing support at 1.156 and 1.153 beneath. Firm ECB pricing and scope for further short covering favour a break above 1.1634, with initial resistance at 1.1709 and then 1.175.

Dips towards 1.159 should remain supported, although a hawkish Fed and a close below 1.153 would leave the pair vulnerable to a deeper pullback," ANZ adds.

EUR/USD slipped to a seven-session low on Friday after U.S. August month-on-month core CPI surprised to the upside, triggering a spike in the U.S. interest rate complex and dollar as markets raised the odds of a Fed rate hike next week and beyond. Despite this near-term pressure, however, the pair retains upside potential if those hikes actually materialize.

The stronger-than-expected core CPI print boosted the probability that the Fed will hike rates next week. If the Fed follows through and signals that its inflation fight is far from over, it would point to further tightening ahead and underscore the central bank's seriousness about controlling inflation.

Interestingly, price action at the long end of the Treasury curve hinted that this inflation battle may already be underway: after spiking to fresh multi-year and multi-decade highs, both 10-year and 30-year yields reversed course and moved lower.

This reversal suggests a broader dynamic—if the Fed's anti-inflation stance is genuine, economic growth could slow, eventually forcing the Fed toward rate cuts down the road. The pullback in Treasury yields and the dollar may already reflect investors positioning for that outcome.

Should this scenario continue to unfold, the dollar could find it difficult to sustain a rally and might instead weaken further as market participants unwind long-dollar positions. A softer dollar backdrop would be supportive for EUR/USD, potentially fueling a rally toward the 2025 yearly high.
eurusd


us30y


us10y

(Christopher Romano is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

Bank of America Global Research highlights some of the key findings from its September FX and rates sentiment survey.

"Both sentiment and positioning turned more bearish on the US dollar. In rates, sentiment remained modestly bearish and near its post-2022 lows, while positioning shifted to a slight underweight from neutral. The spread between US and core European duration exposure points to a meaningful relative underweight in US rates," BofA notes.

"EUR FX sentiment and positioning improved further in September. In core Europe, positioning turned somewhat overweight despite sentiment turning neutral. In peripheral Europe, both positioning and sentiment remained close to neutral levels, albeit low relative to recent history," BofA adds. 

CIBC Research reviews the US August inflation report.

"A hotter than expected core reaffirms the odds of a Fed hike at the next FOMC meeting. Although total CPI came in line with consensus at 0.4% m/m in August, core CPI surprised on the upside at 0.3% (consensus: 0.2%). The acceleration on headline was driven largely by a rebound in gasoline prices as expected. The core measure, rose 0.3% after a 0.2% monthly pace in July. Although core goods posted a modest 0.1% gain, shelter accelerated due to a rebound of lodging away from home (hotels) after two consecutive monthly declines. Public transportation services also posted solid increase for the month due to a small pick up in air fare, which could have been impacted by the higher fuel prices. The annual pace of total CPI held steady at 3.4% from July to August, while core CPI eased slightly from 2.5% to 2.4% (saved by rounding, unrounded was 2.446%)," CIBC notes.

"With core CPI running hotter than consensus on a monthly basis, and accelerated from July's pace, we now think this would tip most FOMC members over in favour of a hike in the upcoming FOMC meeting next week," CIBC adds.

• 0.7176-0.7151 traded overnight, a 7-session low was struck

• The drop was aided by US yield gains, AUD/JPY drop

• AUD/USD rallied off the low, neared 0.7170, was up +0.18% early NY

• Gold, silver, equities rallies & USD/CNH drop helped lift AUD/USD

• The pair rallied back above the 21-DMA, daily RSI diverged on today's low

• US Aug. CPI in focus, an above estimate result could send AUD/USD down
audusd

(Christopher Romano is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• Cable gravitates to 1.3500-10 option expiries before US CPI data at 1230 GMT

• 1.3527 was early London high, after unexpectedly positive UK July GDP

• US August CPI is forecast up 0.4% MM, 3.4% YY; core f/c 0.2% MM, 2.4% YY

• Hotter prints might lift dollar, depress GBP/USD to/through 1.3475

• 1.3475 was three-week low last week (1.3493 was Thursday low)

• UK inflation expectations fall after BoE changes survey provider

GBPUSD

(Robert Howard is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

Sept 11 (Reuters) - USD/JPY's latest recovery attempts will likely by limited by key technical resistance, which should keep the overall bias on the downside.

The USD/JPY continues to trade below the 154.66 Fibonacci level, a 23.6% retrace of the 160.39 to 152.89 (September) EBS fall. The 14-day momentum reading remains negative since last week, reinforcing the underlying bearish market structure.

Japanese Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama said on Friday that the government will continue to closely communicate with the United States to ensure orderly foreign exchange markets. The risk of further coordinated yen intervention continues to exert downward pressure on USD/JPY.

USD/JPY is at risk of breaking below the recent 152.89 low, which would unmask the major 151.94 level, a 50% retrace of the 139.89 to 163.99 (April to July) rise.

However if there is a break and sustained trading above the 154.66 Fibo, that would signal a shift in the overall bias back to the upside.
Daily Chart


Weekly Chart

(USD/JPY Martin Miller is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• EUR/USD within 1.15-1.17 range since July. The 200dma 1.1634 caps recovery to 21 Aug high since May at 1.1711

• 100-dma (now 1.1559) underpins since mid August. Hedging of huge 1.1550-1.1650 options add congestion of late

• Rising energy and inflation concerns help underpin USD as markets await Friday's US CPI - key to next weeks Fed policy decision

• FX option implied volatility is high for Friday's CPI and next weeks Fed - recognising that the events could generate volatility

• However, benchmark 1-month expiry vol just above long term lows as continued range trading and low realised vol caps demand

• Risk reversal options show an almost neutral directional premium - consistent with the lack of EUR/USD direction

• That said - broader option prices reflect mild FX unease and risk reversals do show a very small lean toward EUR/USD downside

• Related - FX options wrap - Oil spike sharpens Fed bets as CPI looms large
EUR/USD daily chart (EBS)


EUR/USD 25 delta risk reversals


Benchmark 1-month expiry FXO implied volatility

(Richard Pace is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• USD/JPY peaked at 154.66 Thursday, it has slipped from 154.61 to 153.97 on Friday

• Fin Min Katayama stressed Japan's close cooperation with US on FX

• Spot continues to trade below 154.78 Fibo, a weekly close below would be bearish

• 154.78 Fibo, a 38.2% retrace of the 139.89 to 163.99 (April to July) EBS rise

• USD/JPY and EUR/JPY tend to move in tandem, log correlations are high above +0.5

Daily Chart


Daily Chart


Correlation Chart

(Martin Miller is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• AUD/USD holds below 0.72 before US August CPI data at 1230 GMT

• 0.71505-0.71752 is Friday range-to-date (0.71505 is low since Sept 2)

• US CPI forecast up 0.4% MM, 3.4% YY. Core f/c up 0.2% MM, 2.4% YY

• Hotter prints could increase probability of Fed hike next week, lift USD

• 10-year UST yield rose to 4.97% in Asia, highest level since 2023

• Citi expects RBA to raise rates twice before 2027 (next decision Sept 29)

AUDUSD

(Robert Howard is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)