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Aug 21 - 11:00 PM
EUR/USD Again Leads EUR/JPY Up Overnight, Some Retrace
First appeared on eFXplus on Aug 21 - 08:45 PM

  • EUR/USD leads EUR/JPY up to 128.04 overnight, off some since
  • Asia so far 127.36-55 EBS, cross still buoyant alongside EUR/USD
  • Now well within 126.11-128.04 weekly Ichi cloud, 100-WMA 126.93
  • Weekly Ichi tenkan at 128.44, descending 200-WMA 128.60
  • Closer to current spot, base of daily Ichi cloud 128.30, kijun 128.33
  • Range on 127 handle eyed going into Jackson, FOMC Chair Powell talk

EUR/JPY: Click here

EUR/JPY weekly: Click here

Thomson Reuters IFR Markets
Aug 21 - 09:48 PM
EUR/USD - Quiet Start After Day Of Heavy Short-Covering
First appeared on eFXplus on Aug 21 - 07:45 PM
  • EUR/USD opens Asia 0.78% higher after EUR outperformed every major currency
  • It traded as high as 1.1601 before option related selling capped
  • Next level of resistance at 1.1625 with break targeting double-top at 1.1750
  • Support found at 21-day MA at 1.1546 and break would ease upward pressure
  • EUR/USD supported by slight dovish turn in Fed expectations
  • Fed Minutes later today and Powell's speech Friday may be key events

eur/usd Click here

Thomson Reuters IFR Markets
Aug 21 - 08:36 PM
AUD/USD - Recovery From Low Now Looking Like A Trend
First appeared on eFXplus on Aug 21 - 06:20 PM
  • AUD/USD rose 0.38% to close above the 21-day MA (0.7361)
  • Broad USD weakness and mostly risk-on US session underpinned AUD/USD
  • Wall Street and risk currencies eased a bit late in the day on Cohen news
  • Trump's former lawyer pleaded guilty sending S&P down from all-time high
  • S&P ETF down around 0.4% in after-hours - which may take shine off AUD
  • Resistance at 55-day MA at 0.7403 with support at yesterday's 0.7333 low
  • Break below 0.7333 would end 4-day trend of higher daily lows

aud/usd Click here

Thomson Reuters IFR Markets
Aug 21 - 05:00 PM
USD: Stretched Long Positioning Could Last Longer & Not Necessarily A Hint For Correction - Danske
First appeared on eFXplus on Aug 21 - 02:55 PM

Danske Research discusses the USD outlook from the positioning front and argues that the recent stretched USD longs can stay in such elevated levels for longer and won't necessarily result in a near-term downside USD correction

"We still see USD support due to carry having reached critical levels and US rates being on the rise still.

This means that while speculators seemingly continue to add USD longs and positioning looks increasingly stretched – this could be sustained for some time and thus does not necessarily hint at a near-term correction as it might under ‘normal’ circumstances,' Danske argues. 

Danske Research/Market Commentary
Aug 21 - 03:48 PM
EUR/USD - Runs Stops Above 1.1540-50 Hurdles Post-Kaplan
First appeared on eFXplus on Aug 21 - 01:35 PM
  • EUR/USD clears o/n hi, weekly Cloud base, 50% Fib & 21DMA @1.1540-50
  • Extension of risk rebound helped by Kaplan's comments nW1N1UT004
  • Nervous USD longs pruning positions after Trump's USD & Fed digs
  • 61.8% of 1.1790-301 Jul-Aug drop @1.1603 & 1.1628 Aug 8 high next rsst
  • Weekly/post-Powell close above 1.1628 needed to broaden the rebound

Chart: Click here

Thomson Reuters IFR Markets
Aug 21 - 02:36 PM
EUR/USD - COMMENT-Trump Lets EUR/USD Clear The Decks Ahead Of Powell
First appeared on eFXplus on Aug 21 - 11:00 AM

President Trump has given EUR/USD a much-needed boost by criticizing U.S. rate hikes and accusing China and Europe of currency manipulation, but the move is unlikely to live past Fed chief Powell's speech in Jackson Hole on Friday.
Weak dollar longs are exiting the market as this latest drama plays out, extending EUR/USD's rebound off its 2018 low of 1.1301, hit on August 15, to today's high by 1.1544.
But U.S. rate-hike expectations are relatively unscathed, still discounting 75bp of hiking by December 2019.
That's more than major U.S. trade partners and consistent with the robust growth backdrop in the world's largest economy.
It also puts the EUR/USD rise in perspective: profit-taking by shorts ahead of Powell.
IMM positioning has just flipped to net short EUR/USD after a 66-week long.
Bulls need a rise above 21-DMA resistance at 1.1548 to gain momentum with more firm resistance by the upper 21-day Bolli at 1.1790.

EUR Chart: Click here

EUR w/IMM positioning Chart: Click here

Thomson Reuters IFR Markets
Aug 21 - 01:24 PM
USD/JPY: Close Above 110.19 Key For S/T Bottom; Close Above 111 To Trigger A Buy Signal - ING
First appeared on eFXplus on Aug 21 - 11:15 AM

ING discusses USD/JPY technical outlook and maintains its 'neutral' rating on a multi-days basis (see here).

"The successful consolidation above the former neck line around 109.75 of the completed long-term bottom formation continues. A close above the flat EMA-200 line at 110.19 would mark the development of a short-term bottom.

Please note that the daily chart might develop a potential falling wedge pattern during this consolidation. That said, a close above the falling trend line and flattening MA-50 line, both around 111.00, would complete this short-term bullish pattern, triggering a Buy signal," ING notes. 

For now, we stick to our Neutral rating waiting for confirmation by a close above 111.00," ING adds. 

ING Research/Market Commentary
Aug 21 - 11:00 AM
USD: FOMC Minutes Could Likely A Key For USD Direction This Week - Credit Agricole
First appeared on eFXplus on Aug 21 - 08:36 AM

Credit Agricole CIB Research discusses its expectations for tomorrow's FOMC minutes from the August-1st policy meeting.

"The FOMC minutes for the 1 August meeting could be more interesting than the decision statement, as the statement included little new information. The discussion by the committee could include Trump’s trade policy and its potential impact on growth and inflation, and how the FOMC should respond.

Our US economists believe that the Fed will ultimately look to inflation expectations. If they remain anchored to around 2%, the committee could choose to look past the inflationary impact of tariffs, but if they do not the Fed may be forced to hike rates more aggressively. The yield curve could also get a mention in the minutes and, importantly, how tolerant the committee has been to the prospect of yield-curve inversion. Expressions of concern about yield-curve inversion by a majority of committee members would imply a less-steep rate-hike trajectory.

Both discussions will be important for the USD and could help determine if its rally will continue," CACIB argues. 

Crédit Agricole Research/Market Commentary
Aug 21 - 08:36 AM
GBP/USD - Scope To 1.2933 But Lower From That Point
First appeared on eFXplus on Aug 21 - 05:35 AM
  • Clear above the 10DMA and our 1.2825 offer filled
  • Had been looking for an adjustment higher
  • Could see a run up to the 21DMA, 1.2933, before bears regain control
  • Our stop above at 1.2950 and target the 1.2589 weekly low from June
  • Risk could come from a weekly reversal, back inside its Bolli envelope
  • Last week's Doji suggests market indecision following bear trend from 1.4377

GBP/USD Trader:

EUR/GBP Trader:

GBP/USD Daily Chart: Click here

GBP/USD Weekly Chart: Click here

Thomson Reuters IFR Markets
Aug 21 - 07:24 AM
EUR/GBP - UK Finances May Tempt EUR/GBP Sellers And Major Fib May Cap
First appeared on eFXplus on Aug 21 - 05:15 AM
  • UK debt/GDP 75.2% lowest since 2012. Biggest surplus since 2000 nUKLLJEE4L
  • Compared to concerns about Italy and Greece may warrant EUR/GBP shorts
  • EUR/GBP topped 0.9030 Aug 9, key peaks just above 0.90 in late 2017 too
  • 0.86-0.90 range has held for near one-year, expect huge options/corp supply
  • Big fib close by. 61.8% Sep 17-Apr 18 drop from 0.9307 to 0.8621 is 0.9045
  • September should also see heavy EUR/GBP supply tied EU farm subsidies

EURGBP weekly Click here

Thomson Reuters IFR Markets
Aug 21 - 06:12 AM
EUR/USD - COMMENT-EUR/USD Likely To Top After Trump's Ping-Pong Talk
First appeared on eFXplus on Aug 21 - 03:55 AM

One day after hailing the strong dollar, partly due to his administration's fiscal stimulus nL1N1V70G0, President Donald Trump's criticism of Fed rate increases has boosted EUR/USD.
Now it's worth picking a top.
It took four months for EUR/USD traders to abandon their bets for a further rise, with the last of those long forced out only in the last two weeks.
They won't have much appetite to buy those same positions back so soon.
Rate differentials strongly favour a further EUR/USD drop, and U.S. rates will rise regardless of Trump's opinion - futures price in 70bp of hikes by the end of 2019.
Recent breaks of long-term supports have shifted down the base of many hedging strategies, which after a rough 2 percent rally will draw sellers to current levels, including central banks that must rebalance the proceeds of interventions intended to slow the USD rally.
The 21-DMA at 1.1549 is already drawing sellers.
A close this week above the base of the weekly Ichimoku cloud at 1.1540 is unlikely.

Fed funds end 2019 Click here

EUR/USd weekly Click here

EUR/USD betting Click here

Thomson Reuters IFR Markets
Aug 21 - 05:00 AM
EUR/USD - Up On Trump But Most Likely To Top Close By
First appeared on eFXplus on Aug 21 - 03:00 AM
  • EUR/USD jumps 1.1499-1.1544 in Asia as stops get hit
  • Pair then tops ahead first meaningful tech level, 21-DMA @ 1.1549
  • Weekly cloud base also pivotal on a closing basis (Friday) is @ 1.1540
  • EUR/USD traders are flat, short squeeze is not sustainable IMM/FX
  • To maintain bullish momentum traders must rebuy recently pared longs
  • An unlikely outcome. Rates/techs favour picking a top, resumption downtrend

EUR/USD daily Click here

EUR/USD weekly Click here

Thomson Reuters IFR Markets
Aug 21 - 03:48 AM
EUR/USD Rally Sends EUR/JPY Through Top Of Recent Range
First appeared on eFXplus on Aug 21 - 01:50 AM

  • EUR/JPY 126.27 to 127.08 EBS in Asia, through top of recent range
  • Not much follow but some stops tripped on break above 127.00, high 8/14
  • Bias turning higher especially with USD weak across the board
  • Still some Turkey and Italy concerns but market seen caught short
  • Break of 127.00 projects tests towards 127.50, 128.00
  • Support on dips towards still descending 200-HMA, at 126.51 currently

EUR/JPY: Click here

EUR/JPY hourly: Click here

Thomson Reuters IFR Markets
Aug 21 - 02:36 AM
USD/JPY - Capped Ahead Of 110.25-30 Option Expiries
First appeared on eFXplus on Aug 21 - 12:35 AM

  • USD/JPY grinds up to 110.15 in Asia PM trading, above 110.10 early
  • Offers from @110.00, trail up to USD920 mln option expiries 110.25-30
  • USD1.6 bln or so in expiries between 110.00-10 likely tether into London
  • Tech resistance from 110.23 flat hourly Ichi kijun
  • Support below towards 109.78 low after stops sub-110.00 tripped early
  • US Treasury yields more supportive, up from early Asia lows, 10s @2.834%

USD/JPY: Click here

Thomson Reuters IFR Markets
Aug 21 - 01:24 AM
First appeared on eFXplus on Aug 20 - 11:13 PM

EUR/USD: Shift from bearish to neutral: Chance for EUR to test the major 1.1630 resistance.

We highlighted yesterday (20 Aug, spot at 1.1435) that “the bearish phase appears to be close to ending” and the break of 1.1460 indicates that the outlook for EUR has shifted to neutral. As highlighted yesterday, it is too early to expect a major bullish reversal even though the gain made by EUR over the past few days has been more ‘robust’ than expected. While the outlook is deemed as neutral, the immediate bias is on the upside and we see chance for EUR to test the major 1.1630 resistance. That said, it could take several days before this level would come into the picture. On the downside, only a break below the current ‘key support’ at 1.1420 would indicate that the prevalent upward pressure has eased. 

GBP/USD: Shift from bearish to neutral: GBP has moved into a consolidation phase.

We have warned of the “increasing risk of an interim low” since last Thursday (16 Aug, spot at 1.2700) and the break of the 1.2780 ‘stoploss’ during NY session yesterday finally confirms that GBP has found a bottom at 1.2662 last week. In other words, the outlook for GBP has shifted from bearish to neutral. From here, we view the current price action as the early stages of a consolidation phase and expect GBP to trade sideways. That said, shorter-term indicators are on the positive side and the immediate bias is for GBP to probe the top of the expected 1.2700/1.2960 consolidation phase. 

AUD/USD: Shift from bearish to neutral: AUD has moved into a consolidation phase.

We highlighted yesterday (20 Aug, spot at 0.7310) that the odds for further AUD weakness have diminished and the subsequent break of the 0.7330 ‘stop-loss’ was not exactly unexpected. The outlook for AUD has shifted to neutral now and we view the current price action as the early stages of a consolidation phase. That said, the immediate bias is tilted to the upside and AUD is more likely to test the top of the expected 0.7270/0.7420 consolidation range first.

NZD/USD: Neutral (since 20 Aug 18, 0.6625): NZD has moved into a consolidation phase.

We just turned neutral on NZD yesterday (20 Aug, spot at 0.6625) and there is no change to the view. As highlighted, we view the current movement as the early stages of consolidation phase. In other words, NZD is expected to trade sideways from here, likely within a 0.6560/0.6690 range.

USD/JPY: Neutral (since 23 Jul 18, 111.20): Slightly negative outlook, scope for USD to test 109.35.

USD closed on a relatively weak note yesterday (NY close of 110.06, -0.38%) and is currently approaching the bottom of our previously expected 109.85/111.50 consolidation phase. While downward momentum has picked up, it is too early to expect the start of a sustained decline. That said, we see scope for USD to test the 109.35 support and only a clear break of this level would indicate that USD is ready to challenge the May’s low of 108.10. All in, we hold a slightly ‘negative’ view on USD for now unless it can move and stay above the ‘key resistance’ at 110.70

UOB Research/Market Commentary
Aug 21 - 12:12 AM
EUR/USD - Spiked - EUR/GBP Touched 0.9000 In Solid Volume
First appeared on eFXplus on Aug 20 - 09:50 PM
  • EUR strength in Asia, on Trump China/EZ currency manipulation comments
  • EUR/GBP +0.3% at one point - touched 0.9002 - now back at 0.8989
  • Heavy volumes in both components when Tokyo opened - reasonable cross flow
  • Five days of higher lows in the cross sustains - 5, 10 & 21 DMAs climb
  • Target is major resistance at 0.9033/44, Aug high & 61.8% 2017/18 fall
  • Asian 0.8976/0.9002 range is initial support/resistance

eug aug 21 Click here

Thomson Reuters IFR Markets
Aug 20 - 11:00 PM
USD/JPY - COMMENT-USD/JPY May Be Transitioning To Lower Range
First appeared on eFXplus on Aug 20 - 08:40 PM

USD/JPY broke below 110.00 early in Asia this morning, based on EBS data, and current trends and outstanding factors suggest it may be transitioning to a lower range.
Broader sentiment towards the U.S. dollar appears in flux too , with many now suggesting a possible retracement.
Expectations of higher U.S. yields, a driving force behind USD/JPY rises in the past, may also have hit a ceiling with the yield on ten-year Treasuries recently topping out just above 3.0 percent.
To wit, the yield has since fallen into a 2.80-2.90 percent range, and even this looks to be under pressure with Fed officials sounding a bit more dovish of late .
In this regard, Fed Chair Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole symposium will be closely eyed this Friday.
The technical picture is weaker with USD/JPY well below its daily Ichimoku cloud and threatening a break below the weekly cloud .
The pair could now trade within a 109.00-110.00 range, with 110.37 a double bottom from June 25-26 and 109.20-23 another double bottom from June 8 and 11.

USD/JPY: Click here

USD/JPY weekly: Click here

Yield on US Treasury 10s: Click here

Thomson Reuters IFR Markets
Aug 20 - 09:48 PM
AUD/USD - PM Turnbull Survives Leadership Challenge
First appeared on eFXplus on Aug 20 - 07:40 PM
  • Australia PM Turnbull barely scraped through in leadership challenge
  • Vote was close enough to suggest Turnbull's grip still tenuous
  • Little impact on AUD/USD - but off earlier high at 0.7347
  • Previous changes in incumbent Party leadership had no lasting impact
  • External factors and local economic data remain key to AUD direction
  • Key resistance at 0.7355/60 includes 21-day MA and 61.8 of 0.7453/0.7302

aud/usd Click here

Thomson Reuters IFR Markets
Aug 20 - 08:36 PM
EUR/USD - Approaching Key Resistance As Shorts Cover
First appeared on eFXplus on Aug 20 - 06:30 PM
  • EUR/USD moving higher in Asia after another session of solid gains
  • Trump criticism of Fed and his strong USD concerns underpin EUR/USD
  • Close above 10-day MA (1.1442) targets former support at 1.1500/10
  • Break above 1.1515 likely to spark more short covering to 21-day MA @ 1.1547
  • A break back below 10-day MA at 1.1442 would ease the upward pressure

eur/usd 2 Click here

Thomson Reuters IFR Markets
Aug 20 - 05:00 PM
EUR/USD: Nice Optics For A Short-Term Bounce Towards 1.16 - TD
First appeared on eFXplus on Aug 20 - 12:45 PM

TD Research discusses EUR/USD outlook and flags a scope for a move towards 1.16 in the near-term.

"The USD looks stretched against nearly all the G10 currencies. Our cyclical valuation models show the USD sits around 2% overvalued and positioning indicators argue it is a well-populated trade.

Our HFFV shows the EURUSD trading a significant discount, suggesting room for a tactical bounce to 1.16. EURUSD vols also look rich, offering room for short vol plays too," TD argues. 


TD Bank Research/Market Commentary
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