Repeat with no changes (originally posted Aug 21)

By Justin McQueen

Aug 24 (Reuters) - The U.S. Treasury’s surprise buyback announcement sparked an immediate rally in gold, with spot prices climbing over 4.5% since the news.

Gold, along with bitcoin, have acted as release valves for a market bracing for the containment in long-end yields. As Scott Bessent himself flagged, this was more about a signalling exercise and gold has received the message loud and clear. From here, the path of least resistance for gold hinges on where U.S. yields settle. History suggests the upside bias remains intact, but a decisive break above 4.75% on the 10-year and 5.34% on the 30-year would shift this bias, which are the levels where gold’s recent momentum could stall and prompt a pullback.

Technically, gold has just closed above the 200-day MA for the first time since June. Looking back on prior occasions since 2010, that trigger has often been followed by near-term strength before fading over the 30- and 60-day windows. That said, although the technical trigger can embolden buyers, the larger story is the Treasury’s willingness to take an activist approach on the long-end. If they succeed, this should provide a longer-term bid for gold, thus keeping the bull case alive.
GOLD ABOVE 200D


Justin McQueen is a Reuters market analyst. (The views expressed are his own) ((Email: ))