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By Paul Spirgel  —  Jul 01 - 04:06 PM
  • IMM net spec USD long cut in Jun 22-28 period; $IDX +0.16% nL1N2YI1UE

  • EUR$ -0.15% in period, specs +5,009 contracts into dip now -10,596

  • $JPY -0.37% in period specs +5,884 contracts short cut to 52,570

  • GBP$ -0.74%, short reduced by 10,129 contract to -53,118

  • AUD specs sell into dip now short 42,980; CAD specs +4,992 as $CAD -0.3%

  • BTC dipped 2.8% in period, specs add 39 contracts long grows to 1,085




Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By Paul Spirgel  —  Jul 01 - 01:35 PM
  • GBP$ off NorAm lows, still -1.2% at 1.2039 into cls; Fri range 1.2173-1.1976

  • Risks remain to downside amid low rate, glbl recession and EU-UK trade angst

  • Even 75% odds BOEWATCH for +50bp at Aug 4 MPC meet unable to support GBP

  • GBP$ dips below 1.20 as traders dial back hawkish moves in 2023 nL1N2YI102

  • Focus shifts to belly of Sonia strip, rate cuts exp'd in Q2 2023 0#SON3:

  • Supt at lwr 30-d Bolli by 1.1986, Fri low 1.1976, 2022 low 1.1934

  • Res Fri's daily pivot at 1.2154, then 50% Fib of 1.2405-1.1934 at 1.2191

Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By eFXdata  —  Jul 01 - 02:00 PM

MUFG Research sees a scope for further USD strength into the Summer. 

"Our scenario is shown clearly in our forecast profile. Tighter financial conditions in Q3 mean further US dollar strength is likely but the start of a pause before the scope for some monetary easing in summer 2023 means the trend of US dollar appreciation should turn before the end of this year and become clearer in 2023," MUFG notes.

"A breach of parity in EUR/USD is now a credible risk over the short-term as financial market conditions remain unfavourable," MUFG adds. 

MUFG Research/Market Commentary
By Christopher Romano  —  Jul 01 - 11:45 AM

AUD/USD fell to a 2-year low amid burgeoning concerns over slower global economic growth, and the pair is vulnerable to a much deeper decline, if a key impediment gives way.

The Australian dollar fell broadly Friday despite China's June Caixin manufacturing PMI expanding at its fastest pace in 13 months nZUN0054F6.

Investors remain concerned major central banks, such as the ECB and Fed, may be over-reacting to rising inflation which could severely hinder growth prospects.

With this, a flight to safety helped drive the Australian dollar down, while the U.S. dollar and yen both rallied.
Emerging market and high beta currencies took significant hits versus the greenback and USD/CNH rallied back above 6.7100.
Global bond yields US10YT=RR, AU3YT=RR are sliding, which is reinforcing the preference for safe assets.

AUD/USD fell below 0.6765 and has only managed a meager bounce.
In fact, the pair now threatens to break the 50% Fibo of the March 2020-February 2021 0.5510-0.8007 rally.

Daily and monthly RSIs are falling, and have yet to reach oversold levels, which suggests downside momentum remains intact and a break of the Fibo is likely.

If this occurs, shorts can target the June 2020 low at 0.6648 and the 61.8% Fibo of 0.5510-0.8007.

For more click on FXBUZ

Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By eFXdata  —  Jul 01 - 11:00 AM
Societe Generale Research warns of a scope for thin July market conditions to provide another USD surge through the Summer.
"We didn’t start the fire, but we tried to fight it….Billy Joel’s song is a reminder to people who complain about what terrible times we live in, that stuff is forever happening. But John Authers reminds us this morning that the first half of 2022 has been the worst for stock markets since 1962, when the Beatles released ‘Love me do’, the Cuban missile crisis scared the world, and England and France agreed to develop Concorde," SocGen notes. 
"The CFTC data show positioning for the three G10 currencies with the most beta to risk sentiment (AUD, NZD and CAD) is only mildly short. Will thin July markets provide the ideal conditions for capitulation by those fighting the bearish mood in risk assets? If so, maybe this summer will see the dollar’s final surge," SocGen adds. 
Société Générale Research/Market Commentary
By Paul Spirgel  —  Jul 01 - 09:50 AM

The hits keep coming for GBP/USD.
Sterling has moved progressively lower from its Asia open high by 1.2172, to down 1.4% by 1.20 in early NorAm.
Friday's UK Mfg PMI nZRN004LXJ came in below forecast adding to the pound’s woes, as low rates and post-Brexit trade angst keep steady downward pressure on GBP/USD.

Despite GBPOIS BOEWATCH indicating an 80% chance for a 50bp hike at the Aug 4 BoE MPC meeting, an increase from recent +25bp moves, traders foci have shifted as global recession fears mount, from the front-end of the curve, where inflation-fighting resolve remains intact, to the belly of the curve, where 3-month Sonia futures indicate UK rates begin falling in H2 2023.

Global recession fears are not limited to the UK, and most developed economies are hinting at lower rates in 2023, but the problem for GBP/USD bulls is the peak in UK rates, at 2.86% in March 2023, remains well below the peak in U.S. rates, currently 3.64% in Dec 2022.
By comparison, the U.S.-UK rate nadir in 2025 indicates U.S. rates pricing 50bps higher.

Unless the Fed shifts its rate normalization tack to a significantly more dovish path, it is likely GBP/USD will test lower 30-d Bolli support by 1.1979 and 2022 lows by 1.1934 putting early Covid lows by 1.1413 in sharper focus.

For more click on FXBUZ

Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By eFXdata  —  Jul 01 - 09:45 AM

Danske Research sees a scope for buying the JPY strategically in H2.

"Following the decline in yields and oil prices JPY has finished the week of strongly with USD/JPY coming of the highest levels since 1998. Long JPY could ultimately prove an excellent buy in H2 but we do not like the timing just yet amid Bank of Japan utilising the global environment to finally spur some domestic inflation," Danske notes. 

"EUR/GBP remains rangy and we reiterate our recommendation to sell a 3M EUR/GBP straddle. Otherwise, heading into Q3 our preference remains that of long USD vs cyclically sensitive currencies including SEK," Danske adds. 

Danske Research/Market Commentary
By eFXdata  —  Jul 01 - 09:09 AM

Bank of America Global Research discusses the EUR outlook and maintains a bearish bias through the Summer.

"Sintra reinforced the message of a paradigm shift in inflation which will require further policy adjustments. But whilst 50bps has become the norm for many central banks, the ECB remains cautious as the Fed remains on the offensive. ECB President Lagarde's once again reiterated the ECB's preference for a 25bps rate hike on 21st July and since hitting the highs through mid-June, German 10yr yields are now 40bps lower. Of more relevance to EUR is the fact that European front-end yields are sharply lower versus G10 counterparts (weighted terms)," BofA notes. 

"As the market continues to pair back its expectations for the scale of ECB rate hikes this year, we think EUR is increasingly being left behind in the global rate hiking cycle. Much will obviously depend on the forthcoming Eurozone inflation print but we think that the path of least resistance remains for a weaker EUR through the summer," BofA adds.

BofA Global Research
By Christopher Romano  —  Jul 01 - 07:25 AM
  • China June Caixin PMI 51.7 nZUN0054F6, fastest mfg activity in 13-months

  • Despite the data investors remain worried about slower global growth

  • Yields AU3YT=RRUS10YT=RR, equities ESv1, commodities HGv1 drop

  • Safe-havens US$, yen bought; AUD/JPY near 91.75, USD/CNH near 6.7100

  • AUD/USD falls away from the 10-DMA, hits a 2-year low of 0.67905

  • Techs are bearish; daily, monthly RSIs falling, 10-DMA weighs

  • AUD/USD shorts now target the 50% Fib of the 0.5510-0.8007 rally

  • US June ISM manufacturing PMI USPMI=ECI is a data risk in NY

  • For more click on FXBUZ

Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By Jeremy Boulton  —  Jul 01 - 05:40 AM
  • EUR/USD bounced 1.0381-1.0486 EBS last 24 hours while risk aversion rose

  • Traders were profitably short EUR/USD before the wobble

  • Natural to pare exposure when uncertainty mounts nL1N2YI0BK

  • Profitable bets are normally re-established

  • EUR/USD bounce offers traders chance to reenter shorts at better levels

  • Trend is down, fundamentals weighing and USD safer and more liquid than EUR

  • Bonds could attract and eurozone does not have common bond

  • In risk averse times dollar is more likely to attract than euro nL1N2YH0U5

  • Daily cloud 1.0599-1.0767 and 21/55-DMAs 1.045-94 should cap EUR/USD

Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By Peter Stoneham  —  Jul 01 - 05:35 AM
  • Another leg lower and price eyes a 76.4% Fibo off 1.1934-1.2405 at 1.2045

  • Sub-1.20 levels calling as momentum holds negative and RSI finally confirms

  • Run back above converged 21-30 DMAs, 1.2275, needed to trigger a squeeze

  • Weekly bear trend strengthened by a potential key week

  • Usually a reversal signal but can also add confirmation to a trend

    For more click on FXBUZ

Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By Martin Miller  —  Jul 01 - 03:35 AM
  • EUR/USD bulls have fought back, leaving a long tail on Thur's candlestick

  • That is usually a sign that the downside has been rejected

  • Outlook is in the balance, however, while market is below Wed's 1.0535 high

  • We are looking to get long on near-term dips to 1.0425

  • Expect good support at Thur's 1.0381 (EBS) low, but below would be negative

  • EUR/USD Trader TGM2334. Previous EUR/USD update nL1N2YH0C1

Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By Rob Howard  —  Jul 01 - 02:45 AM
  • Cable slid to 1.2114 in Asia, as risk aversion lifted safe-haven currencies

  • See: nL1N2YI08U. 1.2114 is lowest level since Thursday's high of 1.2189

  • 1.2093 was Thursday's two-week low (before month-end position adjustments)

  • Pound suffered biggest six-month drop vs USD since 2016 in H1 nL1N2YH0ZW

  • USD share of FX reserves remained at 58.8% in Q1 nL8N2YH69WnL1N2YH1D7

  • UK govt proposes VAT cut to ease pain of rising prices-The TimesnL1N2YH3DW

Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By Peter Stoneham  —  Jul 01 - 02:35 AM
  • Big price swings again clouding the short-term picture

  • Our 0.8590 long hit its stop at 0.8555 (0.8552 low)

  • Rebound to 0.8628 early Friday puts bull run back on

  • Breach but failed to close below trend support, 0.8576, keeps line in play

  • Thursday's sizeable hammer candle significant for bulls

  • Market once more looking t the 0.8721 2022 high from June 15

    For more click on FXBUZ

Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By Peter Stoneham  —  Jul 01 - 01:55 AM
  • EUR/USD: 1.0400-05 (937M), 1.0425 (287M), 1.0450 (521M)

  • 1.0475-80 (914M), 1.0500-05 (454M), 1.0520-25 (363M)

  • 1.0540-55 (2.0BLN), 1.0565-75 (2.6BLN)

  • 1.0590-00 (2.53BLN), 1.0615 (611M), 1.0630 (994M)

  • USD/JPY: 133.50 (1.47BLN), 134.00 (1.58M), 135.25 (295M)

  • 135.50 (571M)

  • GBP/USD: 1.2000 (408M), 1.2100 (259M), 1.2150 (222M)

  • 1.2200 (248M). EUR/GBP: 0.8600 (329M), 0.8635-40 (276M)

  • USD/CHF: 0.9450 (750M). 0.9650-60 (450M)

  • AUD/USD: 0.6800 (754M), 0.6900-10 (816M), 0.6950 (337M)

  • 0.7000 (400M), 0.7050 (1.96BLN). NZD/USD: 0.6400 (1.153BLN)

  • AUD/NZD 1.1100 (348M). USD/ZAR: 16.0175 (590M)

For more click on FXBUZ

Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By John Noonan  —  Jun 30 - 11:55 PM
  • AUD/USD opened +0.33% at 0.6902 after USD eased during US session

  • It came under pressure in Asia when USD firmed and Dalian iron ore slid 4.5%

  • After pausing around 0.6870, selling resumed led by AUD/JPY sales

  • AUD/JPY is down 1.60% with Tokyo names behind the heavy selling

  • E-minis are down around 0.85% to encourage the AUD/JPY selling

  • AUD/USD is trading at session low just above 0.6825, as stromng Caixin China PMI didn't help nZUN0054F6

  • The break below support at 0.6850 targets the 2022 low at 0.6829

  • Resistance at 10-day MA at 0.6912 and break is needed to relieve pressure

  • The weak global growth outlook should keep the AUD under broad pressure

  • For more click on FXBUZ

Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By John Noonan  —  Jun 30 - 09:30 PM
  • AUD/USD -0.25% around 0.6885, as USD a bit firmer to start the Asian session

  • Dalian iron ore is down over 4.5% to add some extra pressure

  • AUD/USD support is at June 14 low at 0.6850 - with 0.6853 yesterday's low

  • Resistance is at the 10-day MA at 0.6918 where selling is tipped

  • AUD/USD likely to remain vulnerable while global slowdown concerns persist

  • For more click on FXBUZ

Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By John Noonan  —  Jun 30 - 08:25 PM
  • EUR/USD opens +0.39% after big recovery from 1.0381 low

  • Soft US data, falling US yields and quarter-end flows led to short-covering

  • EUR/USD a bit softer in early Asia, as outlook still bearish into new month

  • Despite fall in US yields, the spread between 10-year Bund and 10-year US Treasury yield widened in favour of the USD

  • Resistance is at the 10-day MA at 1.0519 and 21-day MA at 1.0546

  • Support between 1.0340/60 validated by yesterday's price action

  • EUR/USD trending lower with the 5.10 & 21-day MAs in a bearish alignment

  • Selling rallies is the favoured strategy

  • For more click on FXBUZ

Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By John Noonan  —  Jun 30 - 07:15 PM
  • AUD/USD opens +0.33% despite fall on Wall Street and commodity slide nL1N2YH30ZnL1N2YH04I

  • Lower US yields resulting from sluggish US data weighed on USD

  • AUD proving resilient despite rising concerns the global economy is slowing

  • Support at June 14 low at 0.6850 validated by yesterday's bounce off 0.6853

  • Resistance is at the 10-day MA at 0.6920 and break increases upward pressure

  • Weakening global growth fears should eventually weigh on AUD sentiment

  • For more click on FXBUZ

Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By eFXdata  —  Jun 30 - 03:00 PM

Danske Research discusses Oil outlook and sees prices supported in the near-term.

"Oil spot prices recovered from post-PMI lows as supply risks persist, while recession fears continue to weigh on the longer end of the curve," Danske notes. 

"While looming demand slowdown points towards easing commodity prices in 2023, the limited spare capacity in global markets could support the current steep backwardation and high spot prices in the near-term, we see Brent crude averaging USD120/bbl in Q3 and USD100/bbl in Q4," Danske adds. 

Danske Research/Market Commentary
By Christopher Romano  —  Jun 30 - 01:50 PM
  • EUR/USD hit 1.04685 on EBS in Europe, risk-off sentiment drove it lower

  • NY opened near 1.0400, slide extended and 1.0381 was hit on EBS

  • US ratesEDM3US10YT=RR extend slides, with help from US data nL1N2YH162

  • Reuters exclusive nL8N2YH3VG on ECB fragmentation plan helps buoy the euro

  • US$ selling intensified as rate slides persisted, EUR/USD turned positive

  • Pair hit 1.04895 on EBS which helped generate bullish tech signals

  • Daily RSI diverged on the low, a daily bull hammer candle formed

  • EUR/JPY bounce off 141.37 EBS low, USD/CNH drop near 6.6940 buoy EUR/USD

  • EUR/USD break of major support may be on hold nL1N2YH1GA

  • For more click on FXBUZ

Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By Christopher Romano  —  Jun 30 - 01:40 PM
  • AUD/USD drifted lower in Europe on risk-off, NY opened near 0.6875

  • EquityESv1, copperHGv1, yieldAU3YT=RR helped weigh on AUD/USD

  • Pair hit 0.68675 in early NY but rallied after US data nL1N2YH162

  • US rate EDM3US10YT=RR drops extended, US$ softened after the data

  • PCE, claims data drove investors to reduce expected terminal Fed rate

  • Month-end U$ demand drove a dip but AUD/USD lifted, near 0.6920 late

  • USD/CNH fell, turned negative and neared 6.6900 to help lift AUD/USD

  • AUD/USD daily RSI diverged on the low, daily bull hammer candle formed

  • China June Caixin mfg PMI, US June ISM mfg PMI are data risks Friday

  • For more click on FXBUZ

Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By Paul Spirgel  —  Jun 30 - 01:35 PM
  • GBP$ ending NorAm firm +0.38% at 1.2170; Thursday range 1.2186-1.2093

  • GBP dogged by low rates, high inflation and mounting UK-EU trade angst

  • Sterling bounces off weekly low amid month-end position pruning nL1N2YH1LK

  • UK gradual nL8N2YG4MN path likely keeps downward pressure on GBP 0#SON3:

  • GBP$ bid sub-1.21, risks to downside below 1.2249 50% Fib of 1.2405-1.2093

  • Abv 1.2249 bulls eye 21-DMA 1.2308, 76.4% Fib at 1.2331, Jun 16 high 1.2405

  • Support at 1.2093 Thurs low, 1.2017 lower 30-d Bolli, 2022 low 1.1943

Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By eFXdata  —  Jun 30 - 01:30 PM

ING Research discusses EUR/USD and EUR/CHF tactical outlook.

"EUR/USD seems to have sunk into a new 1.0400-1.0600 trading range and it feels that if the ECB were to start briefing on the chances of a 50bp hike in July, the euro would not get much of a lift anyway," ING notes. 

"Elsewhere, EUR/CHF is trading comfortably below 1.00. CHF sight deposit data hints that the Swiss National Bank might have sold CHF5-6bn from its FX reserves in order to get EUR/CHF lower - nominal CHF appreciation now being a central part of the Bank's monetary policy strategy. Given the size of SNB FX reserves, we believe the SNB can be on both sides of EUR/CHF to guide it gently lower - perhaps seeing realised and then implied volatility fall too," ING adds. 

ING Research/Market Commentary
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