• NZD/USD +0.6% from Thur 0.58216 low as U.S. data weighs on DXY & UST yields

• U.S. Jul PPI +4.7% y/y (poll +4.9%), initial jobless claims 209k (poll 202k)

• U.S.-Iran both claim control of Strait of Hormuz, stalemate set to continue

• NZ manufacturing expansion slows sharply in Jul, PMI 54.3 (prior 60.1)

• Futures pricing presently implies 85.4% chance of 25 bps RBNZ hike Sep 2

• U.S. Jul retail sales due Fri, Reuters poll consensus +0.1% m/m

• Range NZ 0.5849-575, support 0.5760-65 0.5627, resistance 0.5990-95 0.60925
NZD Hourly Bollinger Study & DXY Daily 55-DMA

(James Connell is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

• AUD/USD +0.2% from Thur 0.7044 low as tepid data softened DXY & UST yields

• U.S. Jul PPI +4.7% y/y (poll +4.9%), initial jobless claims 209k (poll 202k)

• U.S.-Iran stalemate over Strait of Hormuz continues, no resolution in sight

• AUD flat wtd, 0.7090 resistance zone pivotal for medium-term direction

• U.S Jul retail sales due Fri, Reuters poll consensus +0.1% m/m

• RBA Deputy Governor Hauser speaks in Brisbane Wed, AU Jul jobs data due Thur

• Overnight range 0.7046-67 support 0.6920 0.6866, resistance 0.7090 0.7200
AUD Weekly 52-WMA

(James Connell is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

Goldman Sachs Research summarizes its latest projections for the Fed and ECB rates.

"In the US, we expect real GDP growth of 2.1% on a Q4/Q4 basis in 2026, reflecting subdued consumer spending growth but a boost from the Al boom via higher equity wealth as well as strong capex.  We expect the unemployment rate to end 2026 at 4.4%...We expect the Fed to leave the policy rate unchanged at 3.5-3.75% for the rest of 2026," GS nots.

"In the Euro area, we expect real GDP growth of 0.8% on a Q4/Q4 basis in 2026, reflecting resilient activity data but ongoing headwinds from elevated energy prices as well as subdued consumer confidence...We expect the ECB to deliver one more 25bp hike in September to a peak policy rate of 2.5%, although the risks are skewed toward further tightening," GS adds.

• GBP$ weakened in NY afternoon, -0.10% at 1.3483; NorAm range 1.3513-1.3484

• Despite slight yaw after UK GDP/output and US PPI data, pair remains anchored near 1.35

• UST yields off session low support slight USD bid in NY afternoon

• Next key data UK CPI Aug 19; a event but prob not a major mover given seasonal factors

• Most data moot considering the recent oil vol around Mideast conflict, MoU unraveling

• GBP$ supt 1.3475 daily low Aug 13, 1.3413/10 the 200/100-DMA area, 1.3334 Jul 30 low

• Res 1.3513 Thursday high, 1.3553 upper 30-d Bolli, 1.3610 May 10 daily high

Chart:


(Paul.Spirgel is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• NY opened near 1.1535 after 1.1512 traded overnight, the pair rallied early

• USD, US yields , USD/CNH fell after below estimate US July PPI

• Upward moves in stocks, gold, silver helped fuel the EUR/USD lift

• 1.1546 traded but USD buying emerged and EUR/USD fell, sat near 1.1525 late

• The pair traded up only +0.035 in NY's afternoon and a daily doji formed

• Daily RSI diverged on today's 7-session low which is encouraging for bulls

• Pair's hold above the 21- & 55-DMAs, rising monthly RSI also give bulls comfort
eurusd


(Christopher Romano is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• NY opened near 0.7055 after 0.7044 traded overnight, pair neared 0.7045 early

• A rally ensued however after US July headline PPI came in below estimates

• USD, US yields fell while stocks, gold, silver, copper moved upward

• AUD/USD turned positive, hit 0.7067 but bulls ran out of gas as USD buying took hold

• USD/CNH rallied toward flat, gold & silver moved down & stocks eroded some gains

• AUD/USD turned lower again, sat near 0.7055 late in the day, traded down -0.08%

• Techs lean bullish however; consolidation of gains off July 29 low persists

• Pair remains above 10-, 21- & 55-DMAs and monthly RSI indicates upward momentum
audusd


(Christopher Romano is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• Gold topside momentum fading after another failed break above $4400

• Sharp rally in recent weeks argues for a consolidation phase here

• Eyes on the close - a break below $4358 would print a bearish key day reversal

• Bearish key day = higher high, lower low, close under prior day’s low

• Confirmation opens the door for a move back sub-$4300
GOLD CHART


Justin McQueen is a Reuters market analyst. (The views expressed are his own). ((Email: ))

Morgan Stanley Research previews the US July retail sales report due on Friday.

"We forecast headline sales were flat in July on a m/m basis, as were the headline ex-autos. We expect that auto sales forecasts were up 0.2%m/m, sales of building materials were flat. In our forecast, we pencil in a decline in the sales at gasoline stations (down 1.5%m/m), and also soft restaurant sales (down 0.2%)," MS notes. 

"For the retail control, we expect a slower pace of increase than previous months at 0.2%m/m. The slowdown in labor income growth, weakness in transactions data, pull-forward of Prime Day and other competing promotions to June, all weigh on our forecast. Positive control group prices, early back-to-school spending activity, and seasonal factors all provide a mild positive boost," MS adds.

Sterling remains range-bound, as recent economic data from both the U.S. and the UK have failed to provide a strong impetus for either bullish or bearish sentiment, keeping the pair within its 1.3475-1.3556 range. Today's mixed UK GDP and output figures had little impact on the general direction of GBP/USD. Meanwhile, U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI) data, which came in slightly below expectations, offered some support to the pound, helping it recover from session lows below 1.35 to trade around 1.3510. This was accompanied by a slight dip in U.S. Treasury yields and a continued softening of Federal Reserve hike expectations. October rate futures show a 55% probability of a 25 bp Fed hike, with 24 bps priced in for the December FOMC meeting. For the Bank of England, today's UK data did little to alter the policy outlook, with a November hike still seen at 60% and a total of 27 bps of hikes priced in by the December MPC meeting.

With both the UK and the U.S. following comparable rate paths, and with the likelihood of sustained high inflation due to oil prices, we may see continued short covering by GBP speculators. This could establish a floor for the pound just below 1.35, with stronger support at the 200-day moving average of 1.3413 and the daily cloud top at 1.3399. However, without a distinct yield or growth advantage for the UK, sterling is likely to encounter resistance initially at the July 15 high of 1.3556, followed by the early-May highs in the mid-1.36s.
GBP Chart:


(Paul Spirgel is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

ANZ Research discusses USD/JPY outlook for the coming week.

USD/JPY retraced sharply from its post-intervention low, reaching 159.54, around the 50% Fibonacci retracement of the 164–155 intervention move and close to 160 (100-dma). The next key retracement level is around 160.5, the 76.4% area. We do not rule out a breach of 160, largely from the USD leg of the pair, but are cautious about chasing it higher beyond this level knowing that both Japanese and US officials are on standby to defend JPY weakness.

Fundamentals have not materially changed. Wide rate differentials, Japan’s fiscal constraints and terms-of-trade pressures still argue against a durable JPY recovery. What has changed is the cost of testing official resolve. Pushing USD/JPY back toward 160 is now more expensive and reported intervention may have been absorbing a meaningful share of Japan’s readily available USD bills, even though deposits at foreign central banks and the FIMA facility remain available backstops," ANZ notes.

"Next week will bring Q2 GDP. Q1 GDP grew annualised 1.8% q/q exceeding expectations and the BoJ’s potential growth estimate of 0.7%. Continued support from government consumption and net exports will likely be a feature for Q2, although higher energy costs may see a squeeze in household budgets and consumption. National CPI figures for July are due, along with flash PMIs for August," ANZ adds.

• 0.7044-0.7067 traded overnight, NY opened near 0.7055, down -0.13%

• Balanced risks helped to keep the range tight ahead of US July PPI

• USD, US yield , USD/CNH drops helped limit the downside

• Price drops in gold, silver and copper helped to limit AUD/USD's topside

• The pair held above the 10-DMA but below the 50% Fib of 0.7277-0.6867

• Rising monthly RSI, pair's hold above 10-, 21- & 55-DMA are bull signals

• A below estimate July US PPI could give AUD/USD a lift
audusd


(Christopher Romano is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

Aug 13 (Reuters) - AUD/USD usually struggles in August and that could well be the case once again in 2026 due to two key technical factors.

While AUD/USD in August has dropped in 18 of the 26 years since 2000, or 69% of the time, seasonality cannot be considered in isolation and instead needs to be corroborated by other factors. AUD/USD has dropped from Wednesday's 0.7091 10-week peak even as the Reserve Bank of Australia talks up rate hike risks. That fall helped to leave a long upper shadow on Wednesday's candlestick and that points to a rejection of the upside and could well see a bigger drop in coming sessions.

Spot failed to sustain the recent trading above the 0.7072 level, a 50% retrace of the 0.7270 to 0.6867 (May to June) drop, setting up a bull trap which occurs when a market breaks above a technical level but subsequently reverses and is usually a bearish sign.
Daily Chart


AUD/USD Seasonality Chart


(Martin Miller is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• GBP trades in a narrow 27pip range as spot slips back below 1.35. Overnight range = 1.3475-1.3502

• UK Q2 GDP came in at 0.4%, in-line with consensus but market shrugged it off - no catalyst to break the range

• Wednesday's U.S. CPI report offered little surprise, keeping USD flows more two-way but directionless

• Initial support comes in 1.3470-76 (200-hour MA cluster), then 1.3445-50 (pre-payrolls level)

• Resistance unchanged at 1.3556 - likely to hold unless a clear macro catalyst underpins topside momentum
GBPUSD hourly chart


Justin McQueen is a Reuters market analyst. (The views expressed are his own). ((Email: ))

• USD/JPY has seen a 159.18-159.48 EBS range, on Thursday, trading within the thick daily cloud

• The daily cloud currently spans the 158.92-161.42 region

• Spot stuck below 159.59, 50% retrace of 163.99-155.20 intervention fueled slump

• The long tail on the Wednesday candlestick points to a rejection of the downside

• However, beware USD/JPY and EUR/JPY usually struggles in August

• USD/JPY and EUR/JPY tend to move in tandem, log correlations are high above +0.5

Daily Chart


Correlation Chart


(Martin Miller is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• One-month EUR/USD sinks to 2026 low around 4.5

• Lowest ever traded was just below 4 in 2020

• Option traders are expecting little to happen

• Other major currencies are also quietening

• Quiet FX, booming stocks favour carry trades

•
EURUSD


(Jeremy Boulton is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• EUR/USD repeatedly failing to sustain rises above 100-DMA at 1.1567

• Higher oil weighing while covering spec shorts provides support

• On Thursday pair rose to 1.1566 after US CPI but closed 1.1525

• Potential buy signal should 21-DMA 1.1473 rise over 55-DMA 1.1479

• Break outside daily Ichimoku cloud 1.1451-1.1561 needed to excite

•
EURUSD


(Jeremy Boulton is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• Australian mining stocks fall as much as 1%, adding to the broader benchmark's 0.2% decline

• Copper prices fell alongside broader industrial metals as the dollar strengthened after U.S. inflation data left expectations for next month's Federal Reserve interest rate decision unaffected

• Sector leaders BHP and Rio Tinto fall as much as 0.7% and 3.8%, respectively

• Both stocks on pace for second straight day of losses

• YTD, AXMM up 18.2%, including the day's moves, eclipsing AXJO's 5.4% rise

(Reporting by Nikita Maria Jino in Bengaluru)

• AUD/USD -0.2% Thur as downside drift begins to look more like a downswing

• AUD near 0.7047 lower hourly Bollinger band, may pare momentum short term

• U.S. initial jobless claims (Reuters poll 202k), and Jul PPI due Thur

• Broad USD index struggle to break clear above 100.00 level continues

• Iran says no progress on negotiations to reach permanent ceasefire with U.S.

• RBA Assistant Governor Kent indicates RBA maintaining rate hike optionality

• Range Asia 0.7047-665 support 0.6920 0.6866, resistance 0.7090 0.7200
AUD Hourly Bollinger Study & DXY Daily 55-DMA

(James Connell is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

(Corrected headline)

• EUR/USD on back foot in Asia, 1.1523-31 EBS after fall from 1.1566 yesterday

• Well ensconced in 1.1451-1.1561 daily Ichimoku cloud, 100-DMA 1.1566 above

• Tracking away from 1.1536 200-HMA, 1.1539-48 hourly Ichimoku cloud

• Looking to test 1.1520 low yesterday?

• Massive nearby option expiries to help contain spot action again however

• 1.1400-95 E7.4 bln, 1.1500-25 E5.6 bln, 1.1530-95 E9 bln, 1.1600-65 E6 bln

• EUR/GBP also heavy, indicated 0.8541 after push down to 0.8533 yesterday

• Between 0.8520 daily Ichimoku kijun and 0.8557 daily tenkan

• In area of 0.8539 hourly Ichimoku tenkan and 0.8541 hourly kijun

• Nearby option expiries today between 0.8540-50, total E532 mln

• EUR/JPY 183.63-68 EBS, holding under 183.88 200-DMA, 183.94 high yesterday

• Holding above 182.62-183.49 hourly Ichimoku cloud

• E709 mln option expiries today between 183.00-40, E550 mln 183.90-184.10

• Still in recently higher range however, eyeing USD/JPY for direction?

• EUR/CHF outlier, remains bid on carry demand, Asia 0.9373-78 EBS

• Uptrend looking to continue for now

• Related comments , , also
EUR/USD:


EUR/USD nearby option expiries into next week:


EUR/CHF:

(Haruya Ida is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• USD/THB opens lower, rally in gold prices weigh

• Spot gold last at $4441/oz, +0.75%

• Oil prices off overnight highs, Brent -0.91% to $88.17/bbl

• USD/THB traded 32.99-33.12 range in NY, closed at 33.06

• Supports at 33.0, 32.90 intraday, resistance at 33.20, 33.40

• USD bounces despite mild US CPI data, DXY last at 99.93

• UST yields stay firm on underlying inflation worries, 10yr last 4.68%
THB

(Catherine Tan is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are her own.)

• USD/JPY fell to 158.60 EBS overnight after mild CPI data, has bounced since

• Bounce to 159.55 before peaking out, Asia so far today 159.29-44

• Out of, below daily Ichimoku cloud for a bit, back in, cloud 158.92-161.41

• Underlining support eyed at ascending 200-DMA at 158.18

• Back above hourly Ichimoku cloud between 158.56-159.29, 100-HMA 158.82

• More massive option expiries scheduled for today, to help contain spot

• 158.00-50 $2.6 bln, 159.00 $1.9 bln, 159.05-80 $1.9 bln, 160.00 $1 bln

• JGB-US rate differentials narrower still, in 2s to @256 bps, 10s @183 bps

• Tokyo market to remain thin this week on annual O-Bon holidays

• Japanese importer bids at fix, on dips, foreign stock-buy ccy hedges too

• Related comments , , , also

• US markets , , ,

• On US data , , on US-Iran
USD/JPY:


USD/JPY nearby option expiries into next week:


JGB-US Treasury 2-year interest rate differential:

(Haruya Ida is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• NZD/USD -0.4% from Wed 0.58835 high, at risk of break below 0.5850 support

• Release of RBNZ Q3 expectations survey 0300 GMT Thur will garner attention

• U.S. inflation data as expected, Fed rate hike conversation remains live

• Iran states no progress on effort to reach permanent ceasefire with U.S.

• Futures pricing currently implies 87.7% chance of 25 bps RBNZ hike Sep 2

• Range NZ 0.5856-60, support 0.5850 0.5627, resistance 0.5990-95 0.60925
NZD Daily 55-DMA

(James Connell is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

• AUD/USD finishes flat Wed after surging in wake of U.S. inflation data

• U.S. Jul CPI: headline +3.4% y/y, core +2.5% y/y (inline with Reuters polls)

• Some investors pushing out Fed rate hike predictions to later in year

• Iran states no progress on effort to reach permanent ceasefire with U.S.

• AUD failed to break 0.7085-90 resistance zone cleanly, drift lower likely

• RBA Assistant Governor Christopher Kent fireside chat in Sydney Thur

• Overnight range 0.7057-91 support 0.6920 0.6866, resistance 0.7090 0.7200
AUD Daily 55-DMA


AUD Hourly Bollinger Study


US Inflation & Interest Rates

(James Connell is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)