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Thomson Reuters
Jan 11 - 07:24 AM
AUD/USD - COMMENT-AUD/USD Looks Set For A Strong Q1 As Usual
First appeared on eFXplus on Jan 11 - 05:30 AM

AUD/USD bulls have a slight structural advantage in Q1.
An analysis of the AUD/USD's Q1 performance since the year 2000 shows it has risen in 12 of the last 19 years.
A possible resolution to the China-U.S.
trade dispute and medium-term bullish technicals also hint at a likely positive first quarter for AUD/USD in 2019.
U.S. officials expect China's top trade negotiator may visit Washington this month, signaling that higher-level discussions are likely to follow this week's talks with mid-level officials in Beijing as the world's two largest economies try to hammer out a deal to end a tit-for-tat tariff war nL3N1ZA03L.
Australia's open and export-heavy economy is vulnerable to trade-war fears, so any mitigation of those risks provides relief to the AUD.
From a technical standpoint, AUD/USD's long tail on last week's candlestick means the downside has been rejected after the "flash crash".
AUD/USD bulls are now focused on the 0.7258 Fibonacci level, a 38.2 percent of the 0.8136 to the 0.6715 (2018 to 2019) fall, a break and weekly close above which will unmask the Refinitiv Matching 0.7394 December 2018 peak.

AUD/USD Q1 Seasonal Returns Chart: Click here

Weekly Candlestick Chart: Click here

Thomson Reuters IFR Markets


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