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By Paul Spirgel  —  Aug 14 - 04:04 PM
  • USD spec short grew in Aug 5-11 period, despite 0.5% $IDX gain nL1N2FG1OV

  • USD short position largest since May 2011, EUR long to new all-time-high

  • EUR bulls continue their charge, specs buy 19,103 contracts now long 199,751

  • USD/JPY +0.74% in period sell 4,413 contracts now long 27,016

  • GBP -0.16% in period, bulls shrug off Brexit/recession woes +11,906 contract

  • CAD (-2,440) & AUD (-6,352) shorts grow, specs sell into strength

  • MXN specs +3,508 contracts now +6,507; carry traders buy despite rate dip


Majors Chart: Click here

IMM positions Chart: Click here

Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By Randolph Donney  —  Aug 14 - 02:35 PM
  • EUR/USD nearing week's 1.1864 EBS high after U.S. sales data nL1N2FG0YV

  • Main dollar worry is lack of fiscal support will hurt the recovery

  • Also that pandemic not being properly controlled

  • Charts improve after last week's low held, tenkan closed above

  • But still dealing with record net spec IMM long as a possible drag

  • String of upcoming 1.19 expiries and August tops just above may cap

  • A 1.19+ close would target 1.1976/78, 161.8% Fibo of March low & Bolli

  • Uptrend's intact unless there's a close below last week's 1.1695 low

For more click on FXBUZ

Chart Click here

Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By Paul Spirgel  —  Aug 14 - 01:40 PM
  • GBP/USD fighting the good fight +0.22% at 1.3097, Fri range 1.3143-1.3048

  • Sterling bulls charge toward 1.3185 after US retail sales miss nL1N2FG0SY

  • Congress in recess, recovery aid uncertain- USD to remain weak nL1N2FD221

  • Pair unable to hold abv 1.3100, 11th of 12 sessions; Aug 6 high 1.3185 caps

  • Failures above 1.3100 may lead to test of Aug 3 trend low 1.2982

  • EUR/GBP ending flat at 0.9043, Fri range 0.9045-02; moves remain largely USD based

GBP Chart: Click here

Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By eFXdata  —  Aug 14 - 12:45 PM

Bank of America Global Research discusses the USD outlook and sees a scope for stabilization over the coming weeks. 

"The USD is stuck in a tight range so far in August, following the strong sell-off in July. Market positioning is short and particularly stretched for real money. The consensus, based on our discussions with investors, remains very much bearish. However, August seasonality tends to favor the USD and some profit taking could keep the USD from weakening further in the short term. We see a number of possible offsetting forces that could affect the USD in the weeks ahead," BofA notes.

"The US pre-election period is starting and we expect markets to focus on the theme after Labor Day. The USD tends to strengthen ahead of the US elections, but this may not be a typical election. Vol also tends to increase before and after the US election, and we would expect this to be particularly the case if polls come closer in the weeks ahead. As we have argued recently, the USD implications for the day after the elections depend on the policies that the US will follow and nothing should be taken for granted at this point," BofA adds. 


BofA Global Research
By Paul Spirgel  —  Aug 14 - 01:15 PM
  • AUD/USD bid into week's end +0.32% at 0.7175, Fri range 0.7175-32

  • Dollar slipped after US ret sales miss, adding to US econ uncertainties

  • Further COVID recovery hopes wane as congress takes recess nL1N2FG0OM

  • AUD offered above 0.7200, firm res by 0.7242 Aug 5-7 triple top

  • Supt 21DMA (0.7142), 0.7077 Aug 3 low, bears in control sub-50% Fib 0.7010

  • Large USD short may be running out of steam, AUD IMM long at 5-mos high

  • For more click on FXBUZ

AUD Chart: Click here

Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By eFXdata  —  Aug 14 - 11:15 AM

Citi maintains a bullish bias on EUR/USD into year-end, expressing that via holding a 2.5 month EUR/USD topside ((19 October 2020) EUR/USD call spread.

"Fed's Daly somewhat surprisingly said that she did not see the need for the Fed to offer any additional forward guidance at this time. This does stand in contrast to the market’s expectation that the September meeting will see the Fed provide some guidance on how much they would look to tolerate future inflation overshoots," Citi notes.

"Overall, we remain bullish EURUSD and hold 2.5 month EURUSD topside in our Strategy portfolio," Citi adds.

Citi Research/Market Commentary
By Richard Pace  —  Aug 14 - 10:05 AM

A record IMM long leaves EUR/USD vulnerable to a setback nL1N2FG0A1, so it's worth considering simple options to protect against that, or benefit from it.

A simple vanilla EUR put option will remain in play until its expiry but will offset losses from a predetermined level.
Of course, a premium has to be paid, so it may be more suited to those already in profit.

EUR/USD bears might also consider unhedged EUR put options instead of a cash short with stop, to increase leverage.
They would only risk an upfront premium and avoid being stopped if EUR/USD should rally before a deeper retracement.

Selecting a sell level (strike) further from the current spot rate, and a shorter-term expiry, will cheapen the options premium.

With EUR/USD at 1.1825, one-week 1.1800 EUR puts give the holder the right to sell EUR/USD at 1.1800 in a week for a premium of 40 pips -- profit if spot falls below 1.1785 (strike minus premium).

For more click on FXBUZ

EUR=EBS Click here

weekly net IMM EUR/USD long Click here

Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By eFXdata  —  Aug 14 - 09:55 AM

Credit Agricole CIB Research discusses EUR/USD outlook and flags a scope for a consolidation phase in the near-term.

"In all, we doubt that further sustained EUR/USD upside is likely in the very near term. Indeed, we note that some positives seem to already be in the price of the single currency.

Indeed, EUR/USD is looking overvalued relative to our fair value model that is based on short-term drivers like EUR-USD rate and box spreads as well as the spread between BTP and Bund yields," CACIB notes. 

"Moreover, our positioning data is highlighting that FX investors have recently amassed their biggest EUR-long in recent history. They may look for more evidence of cyclical and central bank policy decoupling between the Eurozone and the US to add to their longs," CACIB adds. 

Crédit Agricole Research/Market Commentary
By eFXdata  —  Aug 14 - 08:55 AM

MUFG Research flags a scope for a correction lower in EUR/USD in the near-term. 

"Tentative signs are now emerging that US economy is regaining upward momentum again although it is still early days. The sharp drop in weekly initial claims to below 1.0 million provided an encouraging signal that the US labour continues to heal.

The improving trends could already be helping to lift US yields from lows at the start of this month, and ease bearish sentiment towards sentiment towards the USD. The main risk to the recent improvement in US cyclical momentum is the failure to agree on a more comprehensive fiscal stimulus package," MUFG notes. 

"The developments are increasing the risk of a correction lower for EUR/USD in the near-term...A break below support at 1.1700 will be required to trigger a deeper correction," MUFG adds. 

MUFG Research/Market Commentary
By Peter Stoneham  —  Aug 14 - 06:55 AM
  • EUR/USD -0.05%, USD/JPY -0.23%, GBP/USD +0.23%, AUD/USD -0.05%

  • S&P E-minis -0.36% , DAX -1.3%, Nikkei +0.17%, FTSE -2.1%

  • Horrible euro zone data; strong EUR won't help nL1N2FG0B7

  • GBP/USD FX traders happy to hold GBP while USD drifts nL1N2FG0BE

  • The weekend could have a big influence on EUR/USD nL1N2FG082

  • A crazily high DJI should result in a big USD/JPY rally nL1N2FG081

  • Massive 7-billion option expiries can influence EUR/USD Friday nL1N2FG07G

  • FX option expiries nL1N2FG06E. U.S. Open nL4N2FG31K

Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By Jeremy Boulton  —  Aug 14 - 05:50 AM
  • NZD/USD slides to 0.6527 below 55-DMA at 0.6535

  • Lows for the two prior sessions came just ahead 55-DMA

  • NZD/USD has been trading over 55-DMA since May 18

  • Pair rose 10% after first breaking over 55-DMA in April

  • 23.6% and 38.2% retracements of rise from March low are potential targets

  • 23.6% is 0.6422. 38.2% is 0.6240. Cluster of Jun lows 0.6376-86 look key

NZD/USD Click here

Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By Richard Pace  —  Aug 14 - 04:40 AM

GBP/USD has been caught in a range so far in August, supported by 1.3000, but can't break March highs 1.3200-10 and probable barriers above.
Can forward- looking options offer clues on the near-term outlook?

There has been some demand for options that would benefit if GBP/USD extended its recent rise to 1.3500 (December's longer-term peak), especially when spot neared 1.3200, and many of those options are said to remain in play.

Implied volatility gauges future volatility and helps determine option premiums.
Risk reversals determine how much implied volatility is assigned to option strikes in one direction over the other.
One-week-expiry risk reversals trade at a small premium for GBP calls over puts (topside); one-month has yet to be convinced, although it does trade at its smallest GBP put premium since the start of the coronavirus crisis.

If GBP/USD can erase March highs/barriers and one-month risk reversals can adopt a GBP call premium, it would reinforce the likelihood GBP/USD will extend gains toward those December highs.

For more click on FXBUZ

GBP/USD 1-week and 1-month 25 delta risk reversals Click here

Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By Jeremy Boulton  —  Aug 14 - 03:40 AM
  • Amidst a crisis the DJI is rallying and record highs beckon

  • DJI has far surpassed 76.4% drop from the record peak

  • A return to the record peak and 30k test look likely

  • The worse things get, the greater the stimulus, bigger the stock rally

  • Historically USD/JPY is positively correlated with DJI

  • Traders are short USD/JPY (safe haven bets) which look vulnerable

  • USD/JPY lagging DJI. 61.8% 2020 USD/JPY drop is 108, 76.4% 109.62

  • 112.23 is Feb 2020 high. If DJI makes 30k a 112 target is achievable

USD/JPY Click here

USD/JPY Click here

Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By Peter Stoneham  —  Aug 14 - 02:35 AM
  • A fairly balanced market within an established 1.2982-1.3185 range

  • However, 1.3200 proved tough and now air above 1.31 too thin for bulls

  • 14-day bull momentum beginning to diverge and RSI losing altitude

  • Potential back to back weekly doji candles also a warning to bulls

  • Supports at weekly cloud top 1.2902 and 1.2915, 200DMA

  • However, weekly cloud twist below market at 1.2719: matches 50% Fibo

  • Key Fibo reading taken off the 1.2252 to 1.3185 climb

GBP/USD Trader:

GBP/USD daily candle chart: Click here

GBP/USD weekly candle chart: Click here

Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By Peter Stoneham  —  Aug 14 - 02:05 AM
  • Long upper shadow to Thurs candle a concern for bulls

  • Bias still favouring a run to 1.2000 but a thin market lacking stamina

  • Market needs to break clear of the 10DMA, 1.1798

  • It's Frid so weekly chart important: risk of consecutive doji stars

  • Dojis suggest market indecision and potential for direction change

  • Last week's 1.1695 low remains pivotal

EUR/USD Trader

EUR/USD daily candle chart: Click here

EUR/USD weekly candle chart: Click here

Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By Richard Pace  —  Aug 14 - 02:00 AM
  • Options expire at 10-am New York, 3-pm London

  • EUR/USD: 1.1750 (1.1BLN), 1.1770-85 (900M), 1.1800 (564M), 1.1825 (1.1BLN)

  • 1.1850 (1.1BLN), 1.1900 (2.1BLN), 1.1920-25 (450M), 1.1950 (650M)

  • EUR/GBP: 0.9005 (400M)

  • AUD/USD: 0.7100 (712M). AUD/NZD: 1.0900 (1.3BLN), 1.1000 (568M)

  • USD/CAD: 1.3175 (1.1BLN, 1.3200 (580M), 1.3250 (1.5BLN)

  • USD/JPY: 105.85 (452M), 106.00 (907M)

Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By John Noonan  —  Aug 13 - 11:45 PM
  • EUR/USD opened 0.25% higher at 1.1814 and traded in a 1.11802/20 range

  • Heading into the afternoon it is settling around 1.1810

  • Weaker than expected China data had little impact on the majors nL4N2FG0AB

  • EUR/USD support is at the 21-day MA @ 1.1718 and this week's low @ 1.1711

  • Resistance is at Thursday's 1.1865 high and the Aug 6 trend high at 1.1916

  • EUR/USD has been consolidating since the short-term trend higher ended

  • Stalled talks on a US coronavirus aid bill could underpin EUR/USD nL4N2FG02R

  • For more click on FXBUZ

Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By eFXdata  —  Aug 13 - 04:30 PM

Goldman Sachs adopts a cautious bias on CAD in the near-term.

"We expect CAD to continue to strengthen as risk rallies, but we are more cautious on the currency outside of it’s high-beta feature for three reasons: (i) the economy is still slowly recovering from the twin virus-oil shock, (ii) housing market vulnerabilities persist, with monetary policy expected to remain highly accommodative for an extended period of time, and (iii) the renewed rise in US-Canada trade tensions may slow any appreciation pressures," GS notes. 

"If the reopening process in the US remains bumpier than in Canada, there may be scope for relative growth expectations to shift in CAD’s favor. But as long as the probability of a widely distributed vaccine within the next year continues to rise, investors may look through any US underperformance on virus control, since a vaccine would most likely provide the biggest boost to US growth," GS adds. 

Goldman Sachs Research/Market Commentary
By Andrew M Spencer  —  Aug 13 - 09:45 PM
  • Flat - E-mini S&P +0.2%, as U.S.-China tensions ease a touch nL1N2FF2BX

  • U.S. no closer to a coronavirus aid package nL1N2FF0QW - weighs on USD

  • Techs; EUR in the middle of a 1.1695-1.1916 late July-August range

  • 5, 10 & 21 DMAs base or rise, leaving a modest topside bias

  • 1.1800 300M, 1.1825 600M, 1.1850 604M and 1.1900 1.1BLN strikes

  • NY 1.1794-1.1864 range is initial support-resistance

  • Cautious start in Asia suggests tight range trading

    For more click on FXBUZ

eur aug 14 Click here

Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By John Noonan  —  Aug 13 - 09:15 PM

The ongoing stalemate between U.S. Democrats and the White House in agreeing on a coronavirus aid bill poses a significant threat to the U.S. economy, which is likely to undermine the dollar.

Federal Reserve officials have repeatedly warned that the economy will suffer if fiscal help is not delivered in a timely fashion.
Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin sounded the alarm bell this week, saying the coronavirus pothole for the U.S. economy would turn into a 'sinkhole' if U.S. lawmakers didn't act nW1N2B8003nL1N2FF1GV.

The gridlock in Washington D.C. nL1N2FF0QW contrasts with the historic coronavirus aid package delivered by the European Union last month nL3N2ES2HF. By mutualizing debt for the first time, that deal enhanced the euro's appeal as an alternative to the dollar as a reserve currency.

The delay in agreeing to an aid bill in the U.S. has resulted in gold resuming its move higher. Gold's rally in July and early August to the all-time high at 2,072 coincided with the biggest monthly rise in the EUR/USD in 10 years.
EUR/USD resistance is at the 1.1916 trend high made on Aug 6, the day before gold hit its record high. A EUR/USD break above 1.1920 is likely to result in a test of the 1.2000 level.

For more click on FXBUZ

eur/xau Click here

Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By John Noonan  —  Aug 13 - 08:30 PM
  • AUD/USD trading just below 0.7150 after initial comments from RBA's Lowe

  • Lowe said RBA has not ruled out other measures, but not needed now nS9N2EK020

  • Nothing in Lowe's testimony significantly different from recent RBA messages

  • AUD/USD support is found at 21-day MA at 0.7140 and Wednesday's 0.7109 low

  • For more click on FXBUZ

aud/usd Click here

Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By Krishna K  —  Aug 13 - 06:35 PM
  • USD/JPY opens almost unchanged; well poised to break resistance at 107.00-05

  • Surge in U.S. Treasury yields to 7-week highs supports; 10Y yield up 5 bps

  • U.S. 10Y yield has risen 21 bps since last Thursday; to limit pull backs

  • U.S. stimulus stalemate to cap rise nL1N2FF0QWnL1N2FE0ND

  • BOJ paying banks to boost virus relief, compensates for -ve interest rates

  • China data the focus in Asia Fri; Sino-U.S. meeting on trade issues Sat eyed

  • Resistance 107.00-05, 107.20-25, support 106.70, 106.45-50,106.20-25

  • Related nL4N2FD27I

  • For more click on FXBUZ

Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By John Noonan  —  Aug 13 - 06:15 PM
  • AUD/USD opens 0.18% lower after NY copper fell over 2.5% to weigh on AUD

  • Sellers ahead of 0.7200 capped AUD/USD when USD broadly weakened in Europe

  • Support at 21-day MA at 0.7140 and a close below increases downward pressure

  • RBA Governor Lower appears before Parliament this morning

  • Key China data out today with IP, retail sales and urban investment on tap

  • For more click on FXBUZ

aud/usd Click here

Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By eFXdata  —  Aug 13 - 03:15 PM

ING Research flags a scope for a short-term correction in AUD/NZD towards 1.06.

"The resurgence of Covid-19 in the state of Victoria puts a dampener on what was looking like a “good” Pandemic for Australia. This will weigh on GDP growth in 2H20," ING notes. 

"New Zealand remains a rare Covid-19-free economy in a diseaseridden world. This may work in favour of AUD/NZD downside in the short term (to the 1.06 area) given the asymmetry in virus situations between Australia and New Zealand," ING adds. 

ING Research/Market Commentary
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