• USD/JPY down a bit after push up to 163.99 Thursday, still buoyant though

• Asia 163.55-71 EBS so far, talk of US-Iran hostilities pause help cap

• No assurances of a lasting ceasefire though, key straits still 'closed"

• Hourly chart shows spot dipping into 163.33-66 Ichimoku cloud

• Descending tenkan and kijun above cloud at 163.71 and 163.75, respectively

• Ascending 100-HMA below cloud at 163.28, 200-HMA 162.79 below

• $564 mln option expiries today between 163.00-10, $490 mln 164.00-15

• More massive below at 162.00 strike, on 161

• Threat of Japan FX intervention but BOJ at week-end more significant

• Some musings BOJ meeting could be 'live' but most still eye fall hike

• JPY net shorts again very large, intervention this week would hurt specs

• Fed also seen leaning hawkish with maybe two hikes this year

• JGB-US Tsy rate differentials recently wider, in 2s @283, 10s @189 bps

• Related comments , , ,

• Also , on IMM CTA positioning

• US markets , , ,

• Crude post US-Iran truce , on US-Iran ,
USD/JPY daily:


USD/JPY hourly:


JGB-US Treasury 2-year interest rate differential:

(Haruya Ida is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)