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EUR / USD
GBP / USD
USD / JPY
USD / CAD
AUD / USD
NZD / USD
USD / CHF
AUD / JPY
AUD / NZD
EUR / CHF
EUR / GBP
EUR / JPY
GBP / JPY
By Peter Stoneham  —  May 26 - 02:05 AM
  • Monday's holiday market delivered a tight EUR/USD doji candle

  • Warns of pause-direction change: opens Tues back inside a thick daily cloud

  • Cloud parameters are at 1.0908 and 1.1065

  • Close inside the cloud opens up a run at 100-200DMAs, 1.0960-1.1012 resp.

  • We are short, no cost, at 1.0960 for 1.0760 but chart turning against us

  • 14-day positive momentum increasing and RSI now climbing

  • Wed-Thurs dark cloud cover candles, bearish, risk being negated nL1N2D708L






EUR/USD Trader

EUR/USD daily Ichimoku chart: Click here

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By eFXdata  —  May 26 - 10:10 AM

Credit Agricole Research maintains a bearish bias on GBP in the medium-term. 

"It feels like a perfect storm has engulfed the GBP with the currency buffeted by an increasing number of headwinds. More recently, expectations of negative BoE rates have been added to the persistent no-trade-deal-Brexit fears and postCovid-19 growth concerns and thus darkened further the already gloomy outlook for the pound. Negative policy rates seemed to be viewed favourably a number of MPC members," CACIB notes. 

"Negative rates could fuel sharp portfolio outflows, trigger wild GBP gyrations and FX volatility, reducing further the appeal of UK assets for foreigners and increasing FX hedging costs to the detriment of corporate profits. Negative rates have the potential to deal a significant blow to the GBP and send it towards 1.20 or lower vs the USD and toward 0.92 or higher vs the EUR," CACIB adds. 

Source:
Crédit Agricole Research/Market Commentary
By Richard Pace  —  May 26 - 02:00 AM
  • Options expire at 10-am New York/15.00 London

  • EUR/USD: 1.0800-15 (1BLN), 1.0875 (364M), 1.0900 (720M), 1.0935-45 (1.3BLN)

  • GBP/USD: 1.2125 (254M). EUR/GBP: 0.8900 (350M)

  • USD/CAD: 1.4035 (215M), 1.4050 (400M)

  • USD/JPY: 107.25 (440M), 107.90-108.00 (650M)

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By eFXdata  —  May 26 - 08:33 AM

Credit Suisse discusses USD/CHF technical outlook and flags some key levels to watch for in near-term.

"USDCHF remains in a near-term consolidation post last week’s sharp reversal back higher from the key uptrend from the late March low, reinforcing the view of an extension of the rangebound environment.

Resistance is seen initially at .9721/36, then .9750/61, removal of which would negate the recent bearish ‘outside day’ and open the door to a move back to the 200-day average and recent highs at .9784/9803. A clear and closing break above here is needed to resolve the rangebound phase to the upside, with next resistance seen at .9834 initially," CS notes. 

Support is seen at the important zone at .9650/38, which contains the recent lows and March uptrend. Whilst we would be alert for a potential floor here if tested again, a break would suggest a test of the lower end of the current range at .9595/80, where we would have even more confidence in the market finding a floor to maintain the range," CS adds. 

Source:
Credit Suisse Research/Market Commentary
By Ewen Chew  —  May 26 - 12:45 AM
  • AUD/USD pushes through chart barrier to extend rally; last 0.6576

  • Unlocks Bollinger uptrend channel at 0.6555 as stocks power up

  • ASX leaps 2.4% on Novavax vaccine trial nL4N2D705O

  • S&P futures climb nearly 2.0% amid broad risk-on sentiment

  • China hinting at more easing coaxes more AUD gains nB9N2D300S

  • But 200 DMA at 0.6660 may attract offers, impede AUD progress
















Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By Andrew M Spencer  —  May 26 - 12:05 AM
  • +0.1% in a 1.2188-1.2223 range with decent interest from the full Asia open

  • PM's aid toughs out resignation calls after lockdown trip nL8N2D71ID

  • Cummings issue raises concerns for government and GBP nL1N2D801O

  • Charts; momentum studies, 5, 10 & 21 DMAs edge lower - negative setup

  • 1.2292, 38.2% April-May fall capped last week and remains pivotal resistance

  • 1.2159, 61.8% of last week's bounce provided a base Friday - now key support

  • Sustained 1.2159 break would initially target test of the 1.2075 May low

  • Asian 1.2223 high then Friday's 1.2233 top are initial resistance

gbp2 may 26 Click here

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By John Noonan  —  May 25 - 11:50 PM
  • AUD/USD opened 0.6543 and after trading at 0.6538 it tracked higher

  • S&P futures and Asian equity markets surged between 1% and 2% higher

  • Hopes of economic recovery from easing coronavirus restrictions underpinned

  • Market pushing aside concerns over rising U.S.-China tensions

  • Risk and the AUD given an added boost by PBOC pledge to strengthen policy nL4N2D80JH

  • AUD/USD traded to 0.6575 before settling around 0.6565 into the afternoon

  • Resistance @ May 20 high @ 0.6616 with key resistance @ 200-day MA at 0.6660

  • Support at the 21-day MA at 0.6497 with buyers at 0.6505

  • Key will be whether the S&P 500 breaks the 200-day MA at 3,000 nL4N2D80X5










aud/usd Click here

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By John Noonan  —  May 25 - 11:35 PM

S&P Emini futures traded to 2,995 this morning in Asia as risk assets are in strong demand.
Hopes of an economic recovery resulting from an easing of coronavirus lockdowns and other restrictions are crowding out concerns of an escalation in tensions between the U.S. and ChinanL4N2D72UL.
Adding to the buoyant mood in Asia was a promise by the PBOC to strengthen policy stimulus to help speed up China's economic recovery nB9N2D300S.
The test will come later today when the U.S. returns from a three-day holiday.
If the S&P 500 convincingly breaks above the 200-day moving average at 3,000 it will likely force cashed up investors back into equities for fear of missing out (FOMO). BofA's May fund manager survey last week stated that the pain trade for equities was a break above 3,020 in the S&P nL4N2D24JB.
The AUD/USD has been tracking the S&P since the start of the coronavirus crisis nL4N2D106G.
If the index sustains a break above 3,000, the AUD/USD would likely make a run at its 200 DMA around 0.6660.
A break above the 76.4 Fibonacci retracement of the 0.7032-0.5510 decline at 0.6672 targets a complete retracement to the Dec 31 high at 0.7032.


aud/usd Click here

aud S&P Click here

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By John Noonan  —  May 25 - 11:30 PM
  • EUR/USD opened 1.0895 and moved higher as AXJ equity index rose over 1.3% nL4N2D805T

  • The rise in risk appetite weighed on the USD and JPY through the session

  • EUR/USD underperforming considering the better German IFO and rise in risk

  • EUR/USD might be on the sidelines ahead of EU summit on Franco-German plan nL8N2D71ER

  • EUR/USD support at 61.8 of 1.0775/1.1008 move at 1.0864

  • Resistance comes in at the 100-day MA around 1.0960













Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By John Noonan  —  May 25 - 09:05 PM
  • AUD/USD traded as high as 0.6565 so far, as sentiment in Asia is risk-on

  • S&P futures, ASX 200 and Nikkei all up over 1.0% in early Asia

  • AUD/JPY demand helping to support AUD/USD with cross up over 0.30%

  • AUD/USD resistance at Friday's 0.6572 high and break targets 0.6616










aud/usd Click here

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By Andrew M Spencer  —  May 25 - 07:40 PM
  • Flat after closing up 0.2% with an inside day and London and NY on holiday

  • PM's key aid toughs out resignation calls after lockdown trip nL8N2D71ID

  • Johnson fully backs advisor Cumming's actions during lockdown nL9N2AV01B

  • Charts; momentum studies, 5, 10 & 21 DMAs head lower - negative setup

  • 1.2292, 38.2% April-May fall capped last week and remains pivotal resistance

  • 1.2159, 61.8% of last week's bounce provided a base Friday - now key support

  • Sustained 1.2159 break would open the door to a test of the 1.2075 May low

  • 1.2202/03, European high, 5 & 10 DMA are initial resistance

gbp may 26 Click here

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By John Noonan  —  May 25 - 06:45 PM
  • EUR/USD remained heavy and sluggish despite better than expected German IFO nL8N2D71P4

  • EUR/USD failed to gain from bounce in equities and fall in Italian yields nL8N2D7335nL8N2D71W8

  • Upcoming EU vote on Franco-Germany recovery plan keeping buyers sidelined nL4N2D723P

  • EUR/USD tested the 21-day MA (1.0876 today) with the low at 1.0870

  • More support at 61.8 of the 1.0775/1.1008 move at 1.0864

  • A break below 1.0860 targets a full retracement to 1.0864

  • Resistance at yesterday's 1.0914 high and break eases downward pressure










Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By John Noonan  —  May 25 - 06:15 PM
  • Risk assets fared well on a holiday impacted Monday and underpinned AUD/USD

  • S&P futures gained 1.24% despite rising tensions between the US and China nL4N2D604O

  • Investors instead are pricing in a recovery as coronavirus restrictions lift nL8N2D7166

  • AUD/USD closed 0.12% higher at 0.6543 from Friday's close at 0.6535

  • Sellers at 0.6550 capping for now with resistance at Friday's 0.6572 high

  • Support at the 10-day MA at 0.6517 and 21-day MA at 0.6495










aud/usd Click here

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By Krishna K  —  May 25 - 05:45 PM
  • USD/JPY trades in narrow 107.63-107.78 range Monday; U.S. holiday impacts

  • Positive risk mood supports ; S&P E-Mini +1.25%, nears 2998-3000 resistance

  • Boosted by easing of lockdowns in many centres, German IFO survey rebound

  • Japan lifts Tokyo's state of emergency, eyes fresh stimulus nL4N2D60CM

  • Rising U.S.-China tensions over Hong Kong to cap gains nL4N2D32O6

  • Resistance 107.80-85, 108.00-08, support 107.50, 107.30-35, 107.00-10

Japan is so behind on coronavirus testing: Click here

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By Peter Stoneham  —  May 25 - 06:05 AM
  • Cable holding to a small bull bias early Monday: EUR/GBP offered

  • Should probably be lower given GBP backdrop nL1N2D70AT

  • However, resilience shown and warns bears of potential rebound

  • Technically, a 1.2307-1.2330 June 4 cloud twist could attract

  • Weekly action trying to base but last wk's long upper candle shadow bearish

  • But number of GBP econ negatives in the mix: could yet force a 1.20 break

  • Overall, sterling remains at risk to haven dollar this week






GBP/USD daily Ichimoku chart: Click here

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By Richard Pace  —  May 25 - 05:35 AM
  • EUR/USD 1.0908-1.0871 Monday, limited flows as UK/US holidays impact

  • Closed below 55-dma Fri, now resistance 1.0909, daily cloud base 1.0920

  • Close below 21-30-dma 1.0873-70 would open risk to May 18 low 1.0800

  • Options market directionally neutral n-t, volatility risk low nL1N2D7090

  • Direction may hinge on Wed's EU council rescue fund/budget plan nL1N2D70AS


EUR=EBS Click here

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By Richard Pace  —  May 25 - 05:20 AM
  • AUD/USD 21-dma 0.6492 now passing above 100-dma 0.6491 - bullish sign

  • AUD/USD slipped from Wed's 0.6616 recovery high, bases 0.6495 Monday

  • Long with tight stops prudent, break/close below dma target 15 May low .6402

  • AU Trade worries with China likely to limit upside however

  • Mon/Fri/Thurs/Wed highs 0.6550/72/99/0.6616 all now resistance levels

  • AUD correlation with stocks also works against recovery as S&P falters at 3k

  • 1-month implied volatility hit new crisis lows 10.6 Thurs, regains 11.5 now

  • Shows options wary of more volatility - usually coincides with AUD losses


AUD=D3 Click here

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By Peter Stoneham  —  May 25 - 04:40 AM

Mired in negative news, sterling should probably be heading lower, faster.
However, there are signs of resilience and even out-performance versus the EUR.
Coronairus-impacted UK retail sales data Friday wasn't a surprise, and most economic releases are being taken in the market's stride.
Sales fell by a record 18% in April; the weak data backdrop, record-breaking government borrowing in April nL8N2D4140, a Brexit standoff, intensifying debate on negative Bank of England interest rates nL8N2D255F and dollar strength nL8N2D41I8 are all conspiring against the pound at the start of the week.
The fact that sterling is not rolling over fires a warning to bears, and the technical picture also hints at the potential for a short-squeeze.
Price is contained by only a thin Ichimoku cloud, and the cloud has a June 4 twist above market at 1.2307-1.2330, which could attract nL1N2D7092.
However, any GBP/USD rebounds are likely to attract fresh selling, with better entry levels being exploited as the May bear trend holds.





GBP/USD daily Ichimoku chart: Click here

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By Peter Stoneham  —  May 25 - 02:40 AM
  • Daily cloud twist out to Jun 4 1.2307-1.2330 can't be ignored

  • Cloud twists can attract as the last two cable twists proved

  • Shallow bear bias just holding under the thin daily cloud, 1.2250-1.2307

  • 14-day negative momentum beginning to fade and RSI is flat lining

  • Weekly action trying to base but last wk's long upper candle shadow bearish

  • Key support and likely accelerator at 1.2075, May 18 low

  • 50% Fibo retrace off 1.1413-1.2648 climb a bear target at 1.2031












GBP/USD Trader:

GBP/USD daily Ichimoku Chart: Click here

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By Richard Pace  —  May 25 - 02:40 AM
  • Options show EUR/USD downside risk premiums significantly reduced last week

  • 1-month option risk reversals basically neutral now - no directional premium

  • Implied volatility sits near crisis lows across 1-12-month maturities

  • Shows lower perceived volatility risk, near term range trading expected

  • Medium to longer term, there's still an air of caution about EUR/USD losses

  • Near term risk is Wednesdays EU council rescue fund proposal/budget

  • Agreement from EU 27 would be EUR supportive, but rejection can weigh



EURUSD risk reversals Click here

EUR/USD implied volatility Click here

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By Peter Stoneham  —  May 25 - 02:20 AM
  • Wed-Thurs dark cloud cover candles, bear signal, holding well nL1N2D40E9

  • Stalling to the downside but weight of a thick daily cloud to contain

  • A low of 1.0887 and we lower our short stop to 1.0960 entry

  • 10 and 30DMA provide initial support at 1.0887 and 1.0870

  • Minor 61.85 Fibo off the recent 1.0767-1.1008 climb comes at 1.0859

  • We continue to target 1.0760, just ahead of the lower 30DMA Bolli line

  • Weekly action giving few clues as price pans out sideways below 21DMA



EUR/USD Trader

EUR/USD daily Ichimoku chart: Click here

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By John Noonan  —  May 25 - 12:00 AM
  • AUD/USD opened lower at 0.6512 as very early Asia sold on US-China jitters nL1N2D604G

  • S&P futures opened 0.50% higher and AUD/USD traded up to 0.6550

  • AUD/JPY selling capped the rally and AUD/USD settled around 0.6630

  • Support is found at the 10-day MA at 0.6509 and 21-day MA at 0.6491

  • Break below 0.6490 would warn there may be a top in place at 0.6616

  • Resistance at Friday's 0.6571 high with sellers at 0.6550

  • AUD/USD resilient as it continues to correlate with the S&P

  • China related risks will likely discourage aggressive attempts higher










aud/usd Click here

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By Andrew M Spencer  —  May 24 - 11:55 PM
  • +0.1%, with only occasional interest in a 1.2168/1.2190 range

  • Sunak authorises bailout for strategically important companies nL8N2D60KE

  • Pressure on PM to fire key advisor Cummings on lockdown breach nL8N2D60BR

  • Charts; momentum studies, 5, 10 & 21 DMAs head lower - negative setup

  • 1.2292, 38.2% April-May fall capped last week and remains pivotal resistance

  • 1.2159, 61.8% of last week's bounce provided a base Friday - now key support

  • Sustained 1.2159 break would open the door to a test of the 1.2075 May low

  • 1.2207/12, NY high, 10 & 5 DMA are initial resistance

gbp2 may 25 Click here

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By John Noonan  —  May 24 - 11:40 PM
  • EUR/USD opened 0.42% lower at 1.0904 and traded 1.0887/1.0908

  • It is around the session low heading into the afternoon

  • EUR/USD trading heavy despite S&P futures trading 0.33% higher

  • FX market remains wary of building tensions between US and China

  • Uncertainty on future of France-German support plan also weighs nL8N2D5064

  • EUR/USD approaching decent support between 1.0860/1.0885

  • 10-day MA is 1.0885; 21-day MA is 1.0873 and 61.8 of 1.0775/1.1008 is 1.0864

  • A break below 1.0860 targets the May 14 low at 1.0775

  • Hourly resistance is at 1.0915 and sellers re tipped 1.0950










Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
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