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EUR / USD
GBP / USD
USD / JPY
USD / CAD
AUD / USD
NZD / USD
USD / CHF
AUD / JPY
AUD / NZD
EUR / CHF
EUR / GBP
EUR / JPY
GBP / JPY
By Rob Howard  —  Nov 12 - 02:45 AM
  • Cable extends south to 1.2801, lowest since Aug 15, following UK jobs data

  • Job vacancies at lowest level since May 2021; jobless rate 4.3% vs 4.1% f/c

  • UK ex-bonus earnings up 4.8% YY, lowest since June 2022 (4.7% was forecast)

  • 1.2819 was Asia low (200DMA), pre-UK data, courtesy of more 'Trump trades'

  • Republicans projected to win majority of House seats in government sweep

  • 1.2798 was Aug 15 low. 1.2835 (last week's low) is now a resistance level

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By Jeremy Boulton  —  Nov 12 - 02:45 AM
  • Gold drops to $2595/oz - close minor correction target for this year's rise

  • A 23.6% retracement 2023 rise from $1984.09 to $2790.15 is $2600

  • Sell-off is stretched below $2622 base 20-day Bollinger Bands

  • Specs pared gold longs in advance U.S. election

  • Longs reduced from 315k to 255k contracts

  • Those who booked profits may be tempted to reenter bullish bets

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By Peter Stoneham  —  Nov 12 - 02:05 AM
  • Sterling in deeper trouble as GBP/USD tests the 200-day moving average

  • The average has supported the pound since May

  • A drop under the 1.2819 200DMA brings the August 1.2666 low into play

  • A steep three-day decline but momentum readings are not over sold

  • There is room for sterling to test the 1.2800 level

  • It would take a climb above the 100DMA, at 1.3000 to worry sterling bears

  • GBP/USD trader TGM2338

    For more click on FXBUZ

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By Ewen Chew  —  Nov 12 - 12:30 AM
  • AUD/USD slips into Bollinger downtrend channel, last 0.6553

  • Tues close below 0.6566 confirms bearish technical bias

  • Points to test of last Wed trough 0.6510, then 0.6500 barrier

  • Below that psych level, Aug low of 0.6346 becomes visible

  • Looming Trump threat to China, thereby commodities, weighs

  • Market still pricing in likely inflationary Trump policies

  • For more click on FXBUZ

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By eFXdata  —  Nov 11 - 04:30 PM

Synopsis:

HSBC expects Japanese authorities to remain vigilant as USD/JPY nears the 155.00 level, which could prompt a currency intervention or price check. The JPY has gained recently amid speculation of intervention, but external pressures, including high US Treasury yields and the renewed popularity of carry trades, continue to weigh on the currency.

Key Points:

  • Intervention Risks: Japanese officials, including Finance Minister Kato, have emphasized monitoring FX moves with urgency, signaling possible intervention if USD/JPY approaches excessive one-sided levels, particularly around 155.00.

  • Market and Policy Dynamics: With US Treasury yields remaining elevated after a less dovish FOMC, USD remains firm, adding pressure on the JPY as yield differentials favor the USD.

  • BoJ Outlook and Carry Trade Resurgence: Market expectations for a BoJ rate hike in December are slim, and recent comments by Japan’s Democratic Party head support a steady BoJ stance. Higher US yields amid reduced election uncertainty are fostering carry trades, further weighing on the JPY.

Conclusion:

HSBC anticipates possible intervention or price checks as USD/JPY approaches 155.00, though carry trades and high US yields add downside pressure to JPY. With intervention risks and external headwinds in play, HSBC sees JPY navigating between potential support from Japanese authorities and ongoing USD strength driven by yield differentials and risk-on sentiment.

Source:
HSBC Research/Market Commentary
By Andrew M Spencer  —  Nov 11 - 10:05 PM
  • Trades off 0.1% in a 1.0642-1.0663 range, with the U.S. dollar up 0.1%

  • German and EZ ZEW economic sentiment leads data - unlikely market moving

  • Pressure builds on German chancellor Scholz to agree to a quicker election

  • Charts - daily momentum studies fall as 21-day Bollinger bands expand

  • 5, 10 & 21-day moving averages edge lower, signals retain a bearish setup

  • Monday's 1.0728 high then Thursday's 1.0824 top are initial resistance

  • 1.0608, 0.382% of 2022/2023 rise and 1.0601 2024 low are major support

  • 1.0625 1.110 BLN and 1.0725 2.285 BLN are the major close strikes for Nov 12

For more click on FXBUZ

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By Andrew M Spencer  —  Nov 11 - 10:00 PM
  • Off 0.15% at the base of a quiet 1.2849-1.2873 range on LSEG FX Matching

  • Employment leads today's UK data, a major factor in the BoE's rate outlook

  • BoE Chief Economist Huw Pill speaks - unlikely to contradict Friday's view

  • Charts - daily momentum studies slip, 21-day Bollinger bands gently ease

  • 5, 10 & 21-day moving averages edge lower - daily signals are negative

  • Bearish setup suggests further losses - on USD strength not GBP weakness

  • Last week's 1.2835 base, then 1.2732 0.618% Apr/Sep rise initial supports

  • Monday's 1.2925 top then last week's 1.3046 high are first resistance

    For more click on FXBUZ

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By Andrew M Spencer  —  Nov 11 - 06:55 PM
  • -0.05% after closing down 0.45% with the U.S. dollar up 0.5%, EUR/GBP -0.2%

  • UK employment data will be closely watched by markets and the BoE

  • BoE Chief Economist Huw Pill to speak in London, likely as per Friday's view

  • Charts - daily momentum studies slip, 21-day Bollinger bands gently ease

  • 5, 10 & 21-day moving averages edge lower - signals are negative

  • Last week's 1.2835 base, then 1.2732 0.618% Apr/Sep rise initial supports

  • Monday's 1.2925 top then Last week's 1.3046 high are first resistance

  • Sterling trades above the recent range base, which looks vulnerable

    For more click on FXBUZ

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By Andrew M Spencer  —  Nov 11 - 06:45 PM
  • Steady after closing down 0.6%, with the U.S. dollar up 0.5%

  • The service sector in Germany may be the much needed engine for growth

  • The German government remains under pressure to call a quick election

  • Charts - negative daily momentum studies, 21-day Bollinger bands expand

  • 5, 10 & 21-day moving averages edge lower, signals retain a bearish setup

  • Monday's 1.0728 high then Thursday's 1.0824 top are initial resistance

  • 1.0608, 0.382% of 2022/2023 rise and 1.0601 2024 low are major support

  • 1.0625 1.110 BLN and 1.0725 2.285 BLN are the major close strikes for Nov 12

For more click on FXBUZ

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By eFXdata  —  Nov 11 - 03:00 PM

Synopsis:

ING expects EUR/USD to remain under pressure, with the pair likely unable to hold gains above 1.0750 and set to break below 1.0600 in the near term. German political uncertainty, with a possible no-confidence vote and snap elections in early 2024, and dovish ECB expectations are key headwinds.

Key Points:

  • German Political Instability: Reports of a potential no-confidence vote in December and early elections in February add to EUR downside, as fiscal shifts in Germany appear unlikely.

  • ECB Dovish Outlook: ING anticipates a 50bps rate cut from the ECB in December, greater than the 28bps currently priced by markets, placing more pressure on the eurozone economy to rely on monetary support.

  • Wide Rate Differentials: The two-year EUR swap rate differential remains heavily in favor of the USD, currently around 170bps, limiting EUR/USD upside and supporting the USD.

  • Near-Term Outlook: ING foresees EUR/USD struggling to maintain levels above 1.0750, with a break below 1.0600 expected as dollar strength persists.

Conclusion:

ING projects further EUR/USD weakness driven by German political risks and a more dovish ECB outlook. With rate differentials favoring the USD, EUR/USD is likely to fall below 1.0600, facing limited upside potential in the current economic and political environment.

Source:
ING Research/Market Commentary
By Krishna K  —  Nov 11 - 05:00 PM
  • AUD/USD on defensive in Asia as USD index jumps to highest since early July

  • Undermined by worries over future U.S. trade and monetary policy

  • Weighed down by falling commodity prices and negative China sentiment

  • Copper hits 7-week low, Dalian iron ore slumps to 2-week low, gold falls 2%

  • Weak China inflation and credit data, stimulus measures disappointment weigh

  • U.S. CPI, Australia wages & jobs, China monthly activity data key this week

  • Speeches by Fed Chair Powell and RBA Governor Michele Bullock Thu awaited

  • Support 0.6550, 0.6510-15, resistance 0.6625; Monday range 0.65635-0.65985

  • Test of key support at 0.6489, 76.4% of Aug-Sep rally, likely in coming days

  • For more click on FXBUZ

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By Robert Fullem  —  Nov 11 - 02:15 PM
  • USD/JPY settles near top of 152.62 to 153.955 EBS range in modest turnover due to a U.S. holiday

  • Yen is on its back foot versus all its G-10 counteparts as U.S. shares advance though the Treasury market is closed

  • Pair holds above its pre-election Nov. 6 low of 151.30

  • U.S. inflation data and Fed speakers may offer the USD support later in the week

  • The weekly cloud top of 152.89 is nearby support ahead of a bullish 21-DMA versus 200-DMA crossover just below 152

  • Strong resistance is seen at last' week's double-top near 154.71

For more click on FXBUZ

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By Robert Fullem  —  Nov 11 - 02:05 PM

EUR/USD sank to its lowest level in over six months amid fears that U.S. policies, including tariffs, under President-elect Donald Trump could threaten growth in the euro zone.

The common currency has been further pressured by ongoing German political concerns following the collapse of the three-way governing coalition.
German Chancellor Olaf Scholz said over the weekend he would be willing to call a vote of confidence in parliament before Christmas.

Additionally, the Netherlands announced it will impose controls on its land borders to curb immigration.

The dollar index surged to its highest level since early July.
U.S. trading was thinned by the Veterans Day holiday and closed bond markets.
Focus turns to inflation data and Fed speakers later this week.

The pound rose against the euro for a fifth session, reaching a new two-year high.
U.K. data this week includes September employment and GDP.

The Mexican peso was lower after Tom Homan was selected as Trump's "border czar" and CNN reported immigration hard-liner Stephen Miller would be White House deputy chief of staff for policy.

Commodity currencies were dragged lower by falling metal prices and a 3% slump in oil.
Disappointment over China's stimulus plan and expectations of more U.S. energy production once Trump takes office weighed on the commodity complex.

Treasury markets were closed due to a U.S. holiday.

The S&P 500 was little changed with financial shares gaining while tech fell.

Gold slid 2.70% amid a broadly stronger greenback.
Bitcoin surged to a record.

Copper fell 1.5% to a seven-week low on the stronger dollar and weak Chinese credit data.

Heading toward the close: EUR/USD -0.67%, USD/JPY +0.75%, GBP/USD -0.50%, AUD/USD -0.21%, DXY +0.54%, EUR/JPY +0.10%, GBP/JPY +0.29%, AUD/JPY +0.56%.




For more click on FXBUZ

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By eFXdata  —  Nov 11 - 01:30 PM

Synopsis:

Credit Agricole sees USD/CAD poised to test the 1.40 psychological level in the near term as CAD underperforms against USD. Despite stable rate differentials and steady oil prices, the CAD has lagged other commodity currencies, partly due to market expectations of further BoC rate cuts if Canada’s unemployment rate continues to rise.

Key Points:

  • CAD Underperformance: Following recent US jobs data and election results, CAD has underperformed other commodity currencies, like MXN, without clear economic drivers for the gap.

  • Focus on Canadian Labor Data: October’s labor report is critical; a continued rise in unemployment could lead markets to expect more aggressive BoC rate cuts, with the policy rate potentially reaching the upper neutral range by December.

  • Rate Cut Expectations and USD/CAD Upside: Consecutive 50bp cuts from the BoC could weaken CAD further, pushing USD/CAD toward the key 1.40 level.

  • Market Positioning: Heavy CAD short positions provide some resilience, though Credit Agricole cautions that further CAD declines could still breach 1.40.

Conclusion:

Credit Agricole expects USD/CAD to approach 1.40 as Canada’s labor data and potential BoC rate cuts heighten CAD vulnerability. With CAD underperformance and expectations for rate easing growing, the pair may challenge the psychological barrier, although market shorts provide slight downside cushion.

Source:
Crédit Agricole Research/Market Commentary
By Paul Spirgel  —  Nov 11 - 11:45 AM
  • $CAD holds slight gain into Europe cls, +0.2% at 1.3920; NY range 1.3950-19

  • Rate spreads key driver, liquidity light Veterans & Remembrance Day holidays

  • Trump trades intact, UST futures and commodities lower weighs on CAD

  • $CAD res 1.3950 Mon high, 1.3959 2024 high on Nov 1, 1.3976 upper 21-d Bolli

  • Supt 1.3888 daily conversion line, 1.3862 the 21-DMA, 1.3813 the Oct 24 low

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By eFXdata  —  Nov 11 - 10:45 AM

Synopsis:

ANZ forecasts that USD/JPY will consolidate in the low 150s in the near term, with resistance below the 155 level despite post-election USD strength and rising US yields. While the pair could end the year above 145, improving Japanese wage data suggests potential for BoJ policy normalization, which could lead to JPY strength in December if the BoJ hikes rates.

Key Points:

  1. Resistance at 155: USD/JPY has failed to break above 155, with ANZ seeing consolidation in the low 150 range as USD momentum stabilizes.

  2. Carry Trade and Yield Spread Support: A favorable US-Japan yield spread is expected to persist, particularly if the Fed’s easing cycle in 2025 is gradual, supporting USD/JPY above 145 into year-end.

  3. BoJ Policy Shift Potential: Japanese wage data show promising growth, aligning with BoJ targets and indicating potential for a 25bps BoJ rate hike in December, which is currently priced at less than 50%.

  4. December JPY Strength Risk: If the BoJ moves to raise rates at its December 19 meeting, USD/JPY could see downside pressure as markets adjust to anticipated policy normalization.

Conclusion:

ANZ maintains a cautious near-term outlook for USD/JPY, expecting the pair to consolidate without breaking 155. A potential December BoJ rate hike, supported by improving wage data, could strengthen JPY and prompt USD/JPY to retreat from recent highs, while the broader yield spread remains favorable for USD into 2025.

Source:
ANZ Research/Market Commentary
By Christopher Romano  —  Nov 11 - 09:35 AM
  • Ether rallied above the 50% Fib of 4093.70-2149.53, hit a 4-month high

  • 3251.10 traded, NY opened near 3156.00, traded up +7.2% in early NY

  • Ether, bitcoin gains extended after election of Trump, pro-crypto candidates

  • Rally in shares of cryptocurrency related companies reinforced Ether's rally

  • Ether techs are bullish; Ether is above 10- & 50-DMAs, monthly RSI is rising

  • Daily RSI is overbought, consolidation needed, would healthy for the rally

  • 61.8% Fib 4093.70-2149.53 (3351.03), July monthly high (3562.20) in focus

  • For more click on FXBUZ

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
Nov 11 - 10:55 AM

BofA: G10 After The US Elections

By eFXdata  —  Nov 11 - 09:30 AM

Synopsis:

BofA anticipates that FX markets will refocus on economic data in the coming weeks, as the immediate political impact from the US election subsides. While a second Trump term adds policy uncertainty, near-term USD strength appears restrained by mixed technical signals and market caution. Investors may await specific policy details in January, with long-term USD impacts contingent on the Fed's response and global reactions to US policy.

Key Points:

  1. Shift Back to Data: Market attention is likely to return to data-driven trading, especially after last week's weak NFP print and better Eurozone data supporting the EUR.

  2. Short-Term USD Constraints: BofA suggests a tempered USD outlook in the near term, citing mixed DXY signals, low realized volatility, and muted risk reversals. USD bulls are encouraged to adopt a medium-term focus.

  3. Uncertain Long-Term USD Impact: Post-inauguration, the USD's trajectory will depend on Trump’s policy specifics, the Fed’s inflation response, and potential global reactions, including from the EU. BofA anticipates an FX impact more complex and less linear than during Trump’s first term.

  4. Global Response and EU Reforms: The alignment of US policies with Trump’s campaign promises could provoke international responses, particularly EU reforms that, though gradual, may provide EUR support amid growing geopolitical concerns.

Conclusion:

BofA foresees restrained USD momentum in the near term as markets digest election outcomes and shift focus to data. However, the USD’s medium-term path depends on the specifics of Trump’s policies, Fed reactions, and global responses. This nuanced outlook suggests a cautious FX approach, with a complex USD trajectory shaped by evolving US policy and international dynamics.

Source:
BofA Global Research
By eFXdata  —  Nov 11 - 08:32 AM

Synopsis:

Goldman Sachs sees scope for continued GBP outperformance on the crosses, supported by a strong global risk environment, the BoE’s gradual rate-cut approach, and a favorable UK growth outlook relative to Europe. These factors, combined with resilience to geopolitical risks, suggest GBP strength particularly against EUR.

Key Points:

  1. Global Risk and Positive Beta: GBP’s positive beta to global risk should keep it supported, particularly if US equities continue to rise, positioning it favorably against other rate-sensitive currencies like JPY.

  2. BoE’s Gradual Rate-Cut Approach: The Bank of England’s gradual easing strategy, with a likely pause in December, makes GBP an outlier among major currencies, adding to its attractiveness.

  3. Relative Growth Advantage: A more constructive UK growth outlook, supported by potential Chinese stimulus, bolsters GBP, especially against other European currencies where economic forecasts remain weaker.

  4. Resilience to Geopolitical Risks: In scenarios of escalating geopolitical tensions or oil price spikes, GBP is likely to be less vulnerable than other European currencies, adding to its defensive appeal.

Conclusion:

Goldman Sachs expects GBP to maintain strength on the crosses, driven by favorable global risk appetite, the BoE’s cautious easing path, and the UK’s relative growth advantage. The currency’s resilience against potential geopolitical shocks further supports its outperformance, particularly against EUR, which has already fallen to two-year lows against GBP.

Source:
Goldman Sachs Research/Market Commentary
By Justin Mcqueen  —  Nov 11 - 07:00 AM
  • USD/CNH prints fresh post-election high (7.22) as dollar bid extends

  • With RBA playing second fiddle, yuan price action should guide AUD

  • For now, U.S. election/trade risks to trump local AU newsflow

  • Talk of trade hawk Lighthizer as Trade Sec pushed back nL1N3MF12A

  • Though such outcome would likely prompt kneejerk move lower for CNH, AUD

  • A move through 7.30 in USD/CNH could take AUD below 0.65

  • Resistance in AUD/USD = 0.6630 (200DMA), 0.6688 (post-election high)

  • Support = 0.6513 (Nov 6 low), 0.6500

For more click on FXBUZ

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By Jeremy Boulton  —  Nov 11 - 05:35 AM

If you don't expect EUR/USD, which has traded in tight ranges for years, to do much you may make more money.

EUR/USD hasn't done much for a long time despite much speculation to the contrary, and the pair may well continue trading on well trodden ground while traders flip from one position to another with little success.

Since the start of 2023 EUR/USD has traded 1.0448-1.1276 with its range narrowing to 1.0601-1.1214 this year.

The range traded last year was the second smallest on record and it has continued to quieten.

While this has suppressed the will to gamble it has not stopped it and like most gamblers, many of those speculating on the direction of EUR/USD have lost.

The liquidation of bets on EUR/USD rising fuelled the slide to this year's low, a tumble at the end of June and the current plunge from this year's high at 1.1214 which traded in September.

Traders who shorted the euro had pared bets around the time of the U.S. election, but may be encouraged to sell again by speculation about a damaging trade war or political instability in Germany.

While both could and probably will weigh on the euro and inspire short selling, neither may lead to a break from well established ranges.
Should a situation arise that does trigger a break out, then hedges must be adjusted.
But until that occurs, it's wise to anticipate another failed gamble where those who are excited by the long odds lose again.

For more click on FXBUZ

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By Martin Miller  —  Nov 11 - 04:55 AM
  • AUD/USD's upside remains limited by the thick daily cloud (0.6646-0.6813)

  • Daily momentum remains negative, reinforcing the underlying bearish market

  • There is scope for eventual losses towards the 0.6489 Fibo

  • 0.6489 Fibo is a 76.4% retrace of the 0.6349 to 0.6943 (EBS) rise

  • AUD/USD Trader TGM2347. Previous update nL1N3MB091

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By Jeremy Boulton  —  Nov 11 - 03:45 AM

Changes July's low to June's

  • EUR/USD dives to 1.0679 EBS in Europe having opened around 1.0720

  • June low which was base for rise to this year's high is 1.0666

  • The 2024 low which traded in April is 1.0601

  • Currently the sell-off is stretched below base 20-day BBs at 1.0740

  • The base of 20-week Bollingers is 1.0660

  • Dip represents opportunity for those short to book profits

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By Rob Howard  —  Nov 11 - 03:40 AM
  • Cable falls to 1.2888 as dollar benefits from fresh 'Trump trades'

  • 1.2888 is three pips shy of Friday's low (1.2925 was Asian session high)

  • Euro fares worse than pound, with EUR/GBP down to 0.8286 (31-month low)

  • GBP/USD bear targets include 1.2835 (Nov 6, six-week low) and 1.2800

  • US CPI data due Wednesday: 0.2% MM; 2.6% YY forecast. Core f/c 0.3% MM

  • CFTC data showed net GBP long fell 32% to 16-week low before Trump win

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
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