Credit Suisse discusses EUR/USD outlook and keeps its year-end target at 1.0350.
"FX markets have entered the phase of relative slumber we anticipated last week, especially when it comes to the broad USD. In the case of EURUSD, we suggested that the post-US Oct CPI (10 Nov) low at 1.0130 would prove a touch nut to crack," CS notes.
"We see no reason as yet to shift our end-2022 target at 1.0350. With the market pricing around 60bp for the 15 Dec ECB rate decision at the time of writing, an upside surprise for the Nov preliminary euro area CPI data on 30 Nov will be needed to propel the EUR higher by forcing markets to price in 75bp. In the meantime, there is also a floor on what can be priced out, and how low EUR can fall, given that upside CPI surprise risk needs to be partially priced. A key asymmetry in play is that the US has already started to show clear signs of an inflation peak, while the euro area hasn’t," CS adds.