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Jul 01 - 03:55 PM

GBP/USD - Dips Below 1.20, Eyes 2022 Low As Recession Fears Weigh On Risk

By Paul Spirgel  —  Jul 01 - 01:35 PM
  • GBP$ off NorAm lows, still -1.2% at 1.2039 into cls; Fri range 1.2173-1.1976

  • Risks remain to downside amid low rate, glbl recession and EU-UK trade angst

  • Even 75% odds BOEWATCH for +50bp at Aug 4 MPC meet unable to support GBP

  • GBP$ dips below 1.20 as traders dial back hawkish moves in 2023 nL1N2YI102

  • Focus shifts to belly of Sonia strip, rate cuts exp'd in Q2 2023 0#SON3:

  • Supt at lwr 30-d Bolli by 1.1986, Fri low 1.1976, 2022 low 1.1934

  • Res Fri's daily pivot at 1.2154, then 50% Fib of 1.2405-1.1934 at 1.2191

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary

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