• EUR/USD resilient despite fresh highs in oil and the Bund-OAT spread

• This reinforces the view that bearish EUR trades are better expressed on the crosses (CHF, JPY)

• Dollar struggling on a softer tone in AI/tech names. Positioning has also been a problem

• Plenty of competing narratives - geopolitics, AI, French stress - keeping USD conviction low

• EUR/CHF is cleanly through the 200-day MA (0.9238). A closing below will embolden sellers

• Initial support is at 0.9215, which has been tested. Further cushion sits at 0.9180

• SNB minutes signalled less need to intervene in FX. That paves way for deeper pullback in EUR/CHF

• Bund-OAT spread remains the real-time indicator for the cross

• At fresh highs, this will keep EUR/CHF on the backfoot
EURCHF daily

Justin McQueen is a Reuters market analyst. (The views expressed are his own). ((Email: ))