ING Research adopts a mildly bearish bias on EUR/USD over the coming month.

"It looks like FX markets are entering a period where the dollar will be back in demand. Our house call is that energy prices will remain high or rise further into July as inventory drawdown strategies are questioned. This inflation shock will be with us for longer. With a stable labour market, the Federal Reserve will have to delay its easing cycle deep into 2027. Bearish flattening of the yield curve means cyclical dollar strength should be with us through the summer," ING notes.

"Having already hiked to 2.25%, we expect another hike from the European Central Bank either in July or September. But the stagflationary shock will be felt more in the eurozone than in the US. EUR/USD could be pushed to 1.13/14 in July – but this is not 2022," ING adds.