• Thai baht rallied alongside gold between Apr 2025 and Jan 2026

• Baht fell with gold after it hit its record peak near $5600/oz

• Potential base for gold forming around $4000/oz

• USD/THB rally is stretched ad big topside levels loom

• Limit for correction Apr-Jan drop is 34.11, 200-WMA 34.15

•
USD/THB


(Jeremy Boulton is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• FX option strikes expire at 10am New York/14:00 GMT on Thursday July 23

• EUR/USD: 1.1370-80 (1.7BLN), 1.1400 (2BLN), 1.1420-25 (583M), 1.1435-40 (420M), 1.1450-65 (4BLN)

• USD/CHF: 0.8100 (1.2BLN), 0.8160 (402M). EUR/CHF: 0.9350 (353M)

• GBP/USD: 1.3300 (281M), 1.3390 (237M), 1.3400-10 (737M), 1.3430-40 (728M)

• AUD/USD: 0.6930 (1.3BLN), 0.6945-50 (587M), 0.6965-75 (642M), 0.7000 (558M), 0.7025-30 (860M)

• NZD/USD: 0.5845 (250M), 0.5895-0.5900 (288M). AUD/NZD: 1.1995-1.2005 (807M)

• USD/CAD: 1.4010 (220M), 1.4090 (331M). AUD/JPY: 113.00 (426M)

• USD/JPY: 162.40-50 (878M), 162.75 (784M), 163.00 (1.2BLN), 163.50 (283M), 163.65 (736M), 164.00 (576M)

• FX options wrap - USD/JPY stirs while broader FX vol slumbers (Richard Pace is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• Shares of Australia's Turaco Gold rise as much as 6.7% to A$0.635, hitting highest since April 28

• Gold exploration co says initial drilling at Woulo Woulo deposit in south-east Côte d'Ivoire confirmed significant depth extensions to mineralisation, with higher-grade gold intersected

• About 4.7 million shares trade hands, about 1.8x 30-day average

• Stock down 25.8% YTD, including session's moves

(Reporting by Subhalakshmi Dey in Bengaluru)

• AUD/USD up 0.25% in brisk Asian trading, boosted by robust AU jobs data

• Opened lower at 0.6990 from Wed 0.6998 close as Houthis actions lifted oil

• 0.6988 traded pre-data, surged as June Australian jobs blew away forecasts

• Peaks at 0.7021 before consolidation sets in; settles at 0.7015 into Europe

• Economy created 76.3k jobs vs 15.3k expected, jobless rate steady at 4.4%

• Probability of another RBA rate hike by year-end jumps to 97% from 78%

• RBA Aug 10-11 meeting will be live if Q2 CPI on Wed is higher-than-expected

• Daily close above 0.7023, 38.2% Fibo of May-June drop, a bullish signal

• Will open resistance at 0.7050, 0.7070-75; support 0.6985-90, 0.6960-65
AUD:

(Krishna Kumar is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

• EUR/USD holding in recent lower range but bid in Asia, 1.1408-26 EBS

• But still between 1.1325 on June 24 and 1.1482 July 15, range to continue?

• Techs shifting a bit though with daily Ichi kijun crossing below tenkan

• Flat tenkan at 1.1429 and descending kijun at 1.1426

• Hourly chart shows spot breaking above 1.1408-23 Ichimoku cloud

• Tenkan rising and at 1.1416, kijun 1.1411 below

• Option expiries today again likely to help contain spot action however

• Between 1.1325-90 total E3.2 bln, 1.1400 E2 bln, 1.1405-45 E1.6 bln

• Between 1.1450-95 above total E5.4 bln, 1.1500-10 E2 bln

• EUR/JPY highest since 187.55 on April 30, Asia 186.18-34 EBS

• Expectations ECB may revert to a more hawkish stance likely behind rise

• EUR/GBP buoyant, Asia 0.8533-34, rebounding from 0.8455 July 15

• Smattering of option expiries today between 0.8450-0.8500, 0.8560-0.8600

• EUR/CHF also bid, 0.9291-97 EBS, highest since 0.9299 Jan 22, 0.9308 Jan 21

• Some option expiries today at 0.9060 and 0.9350 strikes

• Related comments , , ,

• And , , also , also on ECB
EUR/USD:


EUR/JPY:


EUR/GBP:

(Haruya Ida is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• AUD/USD rallies 0.2% in Asia as Australia's June data beats expectations

• Jobs increase 76.4k vs 15.3k expected, unemployment rate steady at 4.4%

• Full time employment +29.3k, participation rate 67/0% vs 66.7% expected

• Robust jobs data will boost RBA rate hike expectations; Q2 CPI Wed now key

• Daily close above 0.7023, 38.2% Fibo of May-June drop, technically bullish

• More resistance at 0.7050, 0.7070-75; support 0.6985-90, 0.6960-65

• Asia range 0.6988-0.7021
AUD:

(Krishna Kumar is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

• Last night saw nervous USD/JPY fall back to 162.67 EBS before bouncing

• No doubt market nervous over possible Japan-US joint intervention

• Move down brief however and market bounced back up to around 163 quickly

• Asia 163.07-11 so far with nervousness continuing

• Escalating Middle East fighting remains USD supportive, higher US yields too

• JGB-US Treasury rate differentials wider again, in 2s @282, 10s @189 bps

• Technically, USD/JPY holding above 162.72-94 ascending hourly Ichimoku cloud

• Remained above too when USD/JPY shot down to 162.67 overnight

• Hourly Ichimoku kijun 162.94 at top of cloud, ascending 100-HMA 162.67 below

• Option expiries 162.00-75 $2.1 bln, 163.00 $1.2 bln, 163.20-164.00 $2.4 bln

• 163.00 strikes today likely to exert some gravitational pull ceteris paribus

• Related comments , , ,

• And , , nL1N43O01D[], also

• US markets , , ,

• On Middle East , , for more click on [FXBUZ]

USD/JPY:


USD/JPY hourly:

(Haruya Ida is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• AUD/USD steady in Asia after closing unchanged Wed as Iran war escalates

• Houthis claim attacks on Saudi tankers in Red Sea, risk of new chokepoint

• Higher oil prices, rising U.S. yields, tepid risk appetite cap AUD rally

• Australia's June jobs data, a key input for RBA rate expectations, due Thu

• Expected to rise 15.3k, unemployment rate steady at 4.4%

• Only a 4.6% jobless rate or higher would shift hawkish expectations

• Resistance 0.7020-25, 0.7050, support 0.6980, 0.6960-65

• Wednesday range 0.6980-0.70125
AUD:

(Krishna Kumar is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

SEB Research previews the July ECB policy meeting on Thursday.

"Unchanged policy rates...ECB will reiterate its data-dependent approach, not precommitting to a particular rate path, but signaling readiness to act if needed (implying further possible rate hikes)," SEB notes.

"The energy price development since the latest monetary policy meeting has been favorable and most members have recognized the possibility of not stressing the next move.  However, many members see a rate hike as highly likely, but improvements of the energy shock may call this off," SEB adds.

The dollar was mixed on Wednesday, as higher Treasury yields and oil prices amid renewed verbal threats between the U.S. and Iran weighed on haven currencies, while DAX gains and cross-related flows underpinned the euro. A dearth of U.S. data kept the focus on geopolitics, with equity markets mixed as investors prepared for second-quarter results from Alphabet GOOGL.O and Tesla TSLA.O, the first "Magnificent Seven" megacap companies to report after the bell for fresh evidence that these companies' multibillion-dollar investments in AI are paying off. President Donald Trump warned the U.S. would strike Iranian infrastructure if Iran attacked shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, while Tehran vowed to target U.S.-linked regional infrastructure in response. Trump envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner discussed diplomacy with Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelenskiy, who described the talks as constructive. Germany will launch a state-backed fund to invest directly in defense startups. U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer hopes to reach interim trade deals with Mexico and Canada this year ahead of broader USMCA changes in 2027.

The Norwegian krone topped G10 gains, while the Swiss franc lagged. DXY vols stayed near YTD lows amid subdued turnover, though yen vols firmed on intervention fears and Bank of Japan policy uncertainty. EUR/USD edged higher on risk-friendly flows and EUR/JPY strength, but the broader technical outlook remains bearish while below its 10- and 21-DMAs near 1.1412-20.

EUR/CHF notched a third consecutive gain to its highest since late January, with the move supported by bullish momentum above its upper Bollinger. GBP/USD was under pressure after a fifth straight session of lower highs and lows, with rising oil prices, U.K. fiscal concerns and elevated gilt yields keeping the bias bearish below 1.34. AUD/USD remained constructive above key moving averages despite USD strength, with dip-buying and rising risk assets helping preserve the broader bullish bias. USD/JPY remained bullish above 163, supported by higher yields and improving momentum, though intervention risks were increasing as a BOJ meeting approaches.

Treasury yields were up 1 to 4 basis points as the curve flattened. The 2s-10s curve was down about 1 basis point to +35.0bp.

The S&P 500 was flat in mixed market.

WTI oil rose over 3% to a six-week high.

Gold rose 1.5% while copper fell 0.9% as the CNH weakened.

Heading toward the close: EUR/USD +0.11%, USD/JPY -0.04%, GBP/USD -0.01%, AUD/USD -0.05%, DXY -0.05%, EUR/JPY +0.10%, GBP/JPY -0.01%, AUD/JPY -0.07%.(Editing by Burton Frierson Robert Fullem is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• NY opened near 0.6995 after 0.7013 traded overnight, the pair initially extended its drop

• Broad-based USD buying, US yield gains & USD/CNH rally sank AUD/USD

• The pair neared the rising 10-DMA, traded 0.6980, buyers then emerged

• Rallies in gold, silver and equities helped lift AUD/USD briefly above 0.7000

• The pair neared 0.6995 late in the session, it traded down -0.07% in NY's afternoon

• A daily doji formed which suggest there is indecision by investors

• AUD/USD's hold above the 10-, 21- & 200-DMAs and rising monthly RSI are bull signs
audusd


(Christopher Romano is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

Deutsche Bank previews the July ECB policy meeting on Thursday

"A pause in July is expected. Current oil prices remain below 11 June levels, and the June HICP inflation data, which came in softer than expected, cast some doubt on the rapid emergence of indirect inflation. Furthermore, our June dbDIG survey indicated a complete unwinding of the initial energy shock's impact on household inflation expectations. Waiting until September will provide the ECB with two additional HICP prints and updated staff forecasts, enabling a more informed decision," DB notes.

"We continue to anticipate a second and final hike to 2.50% in September. In the July press conference, we expect the ECB to maintain neutral communications. This implies no explicit forward guidance, emphasizing a data- dependent, meeting-by-meeting approach without pre-committing to a specific policy path. While the communication will be neutral, we believe the ECB's tone on inflation will still convey a hawkish stance, consistent with a further 25bp hike in September being highly probable," DB adds.

• EUR/GBP bid tone builds, reclaiming 200-hour MAs and shifting near-term momentum higher

• Initial topside capped at 0.8540, clean break needed to re-open 0.8600 handle

• UK CPI miss reinforces BoE “on hold” narrative, weighing on GBP near-term

• ECB seen on hold in July but retaining hawkish bias, offering relative EUR support

• Dips well supported into 0.8480–0.8500 zone, stronger base at 0.8455 (15 July low)
EURGBP hourly chart


Justin McQueen is a Reuters market analyst. (The views expressed are his own). ((Email: ))

MUFG Research on the scope for another wave intervention by Japan's MoF.

"The USD/JPY rate has hit the highest level since December 1986 and what is noticeable about that is the lack of attention this is now getting. With the move a slow grind and with broader G10 and USD/JPY volatility levels so low the MoF’s justification for intervention is simply not there. The 1-month implied volatility in USD/JPY fell below 6% last week for the first time since February 2022," MUFG notes.

"We did get a comment from Finance Minister Katayama who laid the blame for yen weakness solely on the worsening situation in the Middle East but added that “we will take appropriate and bold action at any time, should the need rise”. That’s an interesting caveat – “should the need arise” which clearly suggests a lower sense of urgency than at previous times when intervention took place. There is certainly a shift in urgency in Tokyo which may point to resignation and reluctant acceptance of allowing the yen to weaken as long as the pace of the move is gradual," MUFG adds.

EUR/USD ticked up on Wednesday but stayed locked in its downtrend from the May 11 high, trading below both the 10- and 21-day moving averages—technical signals that are bearish in their own right. More troubling for investors, though, is that the pair isn't capitalizing on a notable rise in euro zone interest rates, suggesting underlying weakness.

The catalyst for those higher euro zone rates has been the sharp rally in oil prices following the escalation of the U.S.-Iran conflict, which raises the risk of hotter euro zone inflation. This has pushed euro zone rates markets to price in a more hawkish ECB stance: the German 2-year government yield

broke above a bull pennant pattern that had been forming since March, while June 2027 Euribor futures dropped below the base of a bear pennant. Both developments point to markets anticipating the ECB may need to raise rates.

Yet despite these upward moves in euro zone rates, EUR/USD hasn't been able to rally—it's actually trading slightly lower than when the U.S. resumed bombing Iran on July 8. This suggests investors are focused more on the U.S. side of the equation, with rising U.S. rates reflecting growing bets that the Fed could hike rates later this year.

Given this dynamic, EUR/USD is likely to struggle to sustain any meaningful rally. A genuine turnaround would probably require a downward shift in U.S. inflation expectations, which could prompt markets to price in a less-hawkish Fed.
june2027euribor


de2yt


eurusd


(Christopher Romano is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

Bank of America Global Research sees NZD upside vs GBP and EUR over the coming weeks.

"A more hawkish RBNZ stands in contrast to our expectations for the rest of the G10 commonwealth countries makes it an attractive G10 long. This is compounded by significantly short speculative market positioning in NZD," BofA notes.

"We would generally prefer NZD shorts funded in GBP or EUR. This week also saw the official transition to the Burnham government in the UK, which has already brough on some financial market noise, injecting more 2-way risk into gilts and the pound. As it relates to the EUR, the NZD is attractive on a vol-adjusted carry basis, is bi-laterally insulated from potential energy terms-of-trade deterioration, and stands to benefit from higher agricultural and metals outlook," BofA adds.

Goldman Sachs Research reviews New Zealand's 2Q CPI and adds a December  hike to its RBNZ rate call.

"New Zealand's headline CPI increased 1.5% qoq in 2Q2026, with the year-over-year rate accelerating 100bp to 4.1%yoy. The outcome was above both our expectations and the RBNZ's updated July forecast (GSe/RBNZ: +3.9%yoy; BBG: +4.0%yoy)," GS notes.

"Against the backdrop of renewed upward pressure on oil prices, we expect today's CPI data will reinforce the RBNZ's recent hawkish reaction function reset. We continue to expect the RBNZ to hike the policy rate in September (+25bp to 2.75%) but now expect a final 25bp hike at December's meeting to 3.00% - following a period of assessment, the 7 November election, and with updated forecasts on hand," GS adds.

USD/JPY is pushing 40-year highs, trading above 163.00, even as sources suggest the BOJ could be open to raising rates faster than its usual six-month cadence. That hawkish signal has barely dented price action, with the pair holding higher levels regardless. Options markets are flagging the intervention risk even if spot isn't. Sub-1-month 25 delta risk reversals are holding a strong premium for JPY calls over puts — the right to buy JPY versus sell JPY. That skew is the options market's way of pricing a higher probability of a sharp downside (JPY-positive) shock than the calm spot chart and low implied volatility suggest.

Separately, realised volatility remains very low — and that's a double-edged sword for option buyers. Cheap realised vol means a straightforward option can quickly become an expensive way to protect against intervention: if spot keeps drifting quietly and realised stays subdued, the holder ends up bleeding premium for a scenario that never materialises.

A cheaper alternative is to buy out-of-the-money JPY calls — i.e., the right to sell USD/JPY (buy JPY) at a strike well below current spot. The further the strike sits from spot, the lower the upfront premium, since there's less intrinsic value and a lower probability of finishing in-the-money under normal drift. But should Japanese authorities step in to intervene, USD/JPY has historically been capable of dropping five big figures or more within minutes — more than enough to bring even a deep OTM strike into play.

Example: With USD/JPY spot at 163.00 and 1-month implied volatility at 6.2, a 1-month 163.00 JPY call — allowing the holder to sell USD/JPY at 163.00 at expiry — costs around 137 pips. That's the maximum loss if nothing happens and the option expires worthless.

Compare that with a 1-month 160.00 JPY call, which costs just 49 pips. The lower premium means less capital at risk if spot simply grinds higher and intervention never comes, yet the structure still leaves the holder positioned to profit from a sharp intervention-driven drop, since a move of that magnitude should easily push spot through 160.00.

In a market where realised volatility is low but the intervention tail-risk is real, sizing the hedge via strike selection — trading a bit of protection for a much smaller premium outlay — looks the more efficient way to stay covered without paying for volatility that isn't showing up.

Related — FX options wrap — How low can vol premiums go?
USD/JPY implied vs realised vol


USD/JPY 25 delta option risk reversals


(Richard Pace is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

Gold, considered both a safe haven and an inflation hedge, should thrive under current conditions. Because rallies in the precious metal tend to precede dollar declines, the prospect of a significant increase in gold prices is reason to anticipate larger moves in currencies. The escalation of conflict in the Middle East, which has lifted oil and gas prices, along with the enduring war in Ukraine and a global trade war that looks set to intensify with new U.S. tariffs, should support safer assets.

This backdrop seems ideally suited for gold, following a correction from near $5,600 to just below $4,000/oz, which has alleviated overbought conditions and reduced the number of wagers that had been restraining gold's rise. Gold is freer to rise amid an uncertain environment that has inflation worries at its heart.

The precious metal, which rose almost $3,000/oz between January 2025 and January 2026, has great potential to rise again, weighing on the dollar index, which plunged by around 15% over the same period. With speculators sitting on one of the largest-ever bets on a rising dollar, a slide led by gold now could be far more damaging for the U.S. currency.

Gold and betting


(Jeremy Boulton is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• Shares of Hochschild Mining up about 2.5% at 456.8p

• Co posts Q2 attributable production of 76,231 gold equivalent ounces, up 0.8% from last quarter; remains on track to meet its 2026 production guidance of 300,000–328,000 gold equivalent ounces

• Inmaculada and San Jose generated robust cash flow in Q2, while Mara Rosa improved production due to better plant stability and progress in its operational turnaround

• Gold prices at 2-week highs on Wednesday, supported by technical buying as investors monitor escalating Middle East conflict and ahead of next week's U.S. Fed meeting

• Including session gains, shares are down about 10.69% YTD

(Reporting by Jahanvi Kothari in Bengaluru)

• Shorter dated expiry GBP related FX option implied volatility is under the cosh early Wednesday

• Sales of 1-week vol from the mid 5s and 1-month at 5.9 and 5.85, plus various sub 1-month strikes

• Implied vol sales that cheapen option premiums typically indicate expectations of low realised volatility

• That fits as GBP eases now Andy Burnham is UK PM and cabinet picks remove FX surprise risk

• GBP/USD has dropped back from July 15 high since May at 1.3556 to the middle of long term ranges in the mid 1.33's

• For benchmark 1-month vol, 5.5 marks the recent and 2026 low — a likely support level

• Related comment - FX option pricing nears its limits
GBP/USD FXO implied volatility


(Richard Pace is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• USD/JPY extended 40-year highs above 163.00 on Tuesday, pushing deeper into intervention risk territory

• Options have seen downside strike premiums increasing in value compared to upside strikes - reflects intervention risk

• Sub 1-month 25 delta risk reversals marginally firmer for JPY calls over puts - the right to buy JPY vs sell JPY

• Option implied volatility increased with spot - benchmark 1-month rising from 4-year lows near 5.95 to 6.5 (now 6.3)

• A lack of follow through and continued low realised volatility continues to weigh on implied vol across all currency pairs
USD/JPY 25 delta option risk reversals


(Richard Pace is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• FX option strikes expire at 10am New York/14:00 GMT on Wednesday July 22

• EUR/USD: 1.1350-60 (802M), 1.1375-85 (1BLN), 1.1395 (450M), 1.1400 (3.6BLN), 1.1430 (430M), 1.1455-65 (583M)

• USD/CHF: 0.8065-75 (1BLN), 0.8100 (292M), 0.8200 (267M)

• EUR/GBP: 0.8500 (247M), 0.8550-60 (290M). GBP/USD: 1.3500-05 (364M)

• AUD/USD: 0.6900 (1.8BLN), 0.6975-80 (448M), 0.7040-45 (610M)

• NZD/USD: 0.5825 (352M), 0.5840 (380M). AUD/NZD: 1.2000 (300M)

• USD/CAD: 1.4075 (666M), 1.4100 (210M), 1.4115-25 (502M)

• USD/JPY: 162.50 (1BLN), 163.00 (2BLN), 163.50 (895M), 163.75 (400M)

• AUD/JPY: 113.50 , 114.00 (546M)

• Tuesday's FX options wrap - How low can vol premiums go? (Richard Pace is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• Shares of Australia's Westgold Resources rise as much as 6.4% to A$4.86

• Stock on track for its strongest intraday trading session since July 3, if moves hold

• Gold producer posts FY26 gold production of 387,354oz, above FY26 forecast range of 345,000 to 385,000oz

• Company says it has not experienced any diesel supply disruptions, retains contingency plans to manage potential supply disruptions due to Middle East geopolitical developments

• Nearly 5.0 million shares trade hands, about 1.5x the 30-day average volume

• Stock down 25.2% YTD, including current session's moves

(Reporting by Subhalakshmi Dey in Bengaluru)