• AUD/USD flat Thur in Asia, trading subdued ahead pivotal U.S. inflation data

• U.S. Aug PPI due Thur (poll +0.4% m/m), CPI Fri (poll +0.4% m/m, +3.4% y/y)

• Futures pricing implies 60% chance FOMC hikes FFR 25 bps on Sep 16

• U.S. & Iran undertake biggest shipping attacks since start of the war

• Brent crude +0.1% to $101.33 a barrel, highest levels since May 22

• AUD target 0.72825 50-month high, break above raises topside potential

• Range Asia 0.7213-23 support 0.7122 0.6920, resistance 0.72825 0.7661
AUD Daily 21/55/100-DMA

(James Connell is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

• USD/JPY consolidating recent losses above Tuesday's 152.89 low

• Key US Aug econ data awaited including PPI tonight, YY 5.3% eyed, 4.7% prev

• US CPI due Friday, YY 3.4% eyed, unchanged from July, core 2.4%, 2.5% prev

• USD/JPY 153.32-60 EBS so far, holding below 153.78-154.59 hourly Ichi cloud

• Descending 100-HMA just above the cloud at 154.63

• Higher-than-eyed US PPI could see cloud resistance challenged

• Fed expectations figure large too with many eyeing possible hike this year

• Option expiries today 152.00/15 $511 mln, 153.00 $1.5 bln, 153.50 $535 mln

• Also up top between 154.00-05, at 154.50 total $1.3 bln

• JGB-US Treasury rate differentials on wide side, in 2s @256, 10s @191 bps

• Related comments , , ,

• And , also , on yen carries

• US markets , , ,

• Fed/BOJ polls , , poll on PM Takaichi

• On Middle East , for more click on [FXBUZ]

USD/JPY daily:


USD/JPY hourly:

(Haruya Ida is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• Shares of gold miner St Barbara rise as much as 20.6% to A$0.880, highest level since March 3

• Shares post biggest intraday pct gain since Jan 21

• Co agrees to sell remaining interest in New Simberi Gold Project to Lingbao Gold

• Consideration includes A$410 million ($296.06 million) in cash

• YTD, SBM shares up 47.4%

($1 = 1.3848 Australian dollars)

(Reporting by Nichiket Sunil in Bengaluru)

• AUD/USD flat late Wed after hitting 0.7238 4-month high in London

• U.S.-Iran engaged in largest shipping attacks since war began

• Brent crude +3.8% to $101.67 a barrel, gold +1.1%, copper +0.7%

• U.S. Treasury bond buyback announcement underwhelms, UST yields higher

• Focus on U.S. inflation data: Aug PPI due Thur, CPI Fri (poll +0.4% m/m)

• AUD target remains 0.72825 50-month high, rally will accelerate above

• Overnight range 0.7210-38 support 0.7122 0.6920, resistance 0.72825 0.7661
AUD Daily 21/55/100-DMA

(James Connell is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

JP Morgan Research discusses the latest batch of data on Japanese flows and FX positions.

"The closely monitored monthly data revealed net foreign equity purchases of ¥0.6trn (JPMe: -¥1.7trn) and net foreign bond purchases of ¥2.3trn (JPMe: + ¥0.9trn) by "Trust Accounts," which reflect pension funds' activities. Both figures point to continued net accumulation of foreign assets contrary to prevailing market speculation which expects a shift towards domestic assets from foreign assets," JPM notes.

"Retail investors turned JPY short following the sharp JPY move last week.  Retail investors net purchased ¥1.3trn of foreign equities in August, the largest net purchase since January, underscoring sustained appetite for foreign assets despite a concurrent rise in retail JGB demand," JPM adds.

• Shares of gold miners gain, tracking rise in bullion prices [GOL/]

• Spot gold up 1.3% at $4,414.61 per ounce as the U.S. dollar remained under pressure, while investors awaited key inflation data this week that would provide clues to the Federal Reserve's monetary policy amid an oil price rally

• Top miners Newmont , Barrick Gold up 2.4% and 1.4%, respectively

• U.S.-listed shares of South African miners Gold Fields

rise marginally, Harmony Gold jump 3.2%, AngloGold Ashanti gain 1.4% and Sibanye Stillwater

adds 1.8%

• Canadian miners Agnico Eagle Mines rise 1.3% and Kinross Gold add ~1%

(Reporting by Pooja Menon in Bengaluru)

• GBP$ holds slight gain in NY 1fternoon, +0.14% at 1.3559; NorAm range 1.3567-1.3536

• Dollar index traded either side of flat, bid after UST buyback announcement faded

• Risk mixed, USTs, equities under pressure; precious metals, copper higher

• Early GBP rise after Bessent warned of betting against yen, said I am the house now

• Despite recent rise GBP bulls may run out of gas on fiscal, monetary concerns

• GBP$ res 1.3567 Wednesday high, 1.3600 psychological lvl, 1.3650 upper 30-d Bolli

• Supt 1.3533/31 lwr 30-DMA/Wed low, 1.3400 big-figure supt, 1.3451 the 200-DMA

GBP Chart:

(Paul.Spirgel is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

(Adds headline)

• NY opened near 1.1630 after EUR/USD traded downward in Europe's morning

• The pair rallied early and struck an 8-session high of 1.1654 on USD selling

• Rallies in gold, silver and USD/CNH's drop to 6.7033 contributed to the pair's rally

• Sellers emerged though after the US Treasury announced its buyback program

• USD, yields rallied & stocks, gold, silver moved downward

• EUR/USD fell to 1.1620, buyers emerged and the pair neared 1.1640 late in the day

• A halt in USD buying and lifts in gold, silver and stocks helped buoy EUR/USD

• EUR/USD traded near the 200-DMA and +0.12% in NY's afternoon

• Techs lean bullish; RSIs are rising & a monthly bull hammer is in place

• US August PPI report is a key data risk for Thursday
eurusd

(Christopher Romano is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

Danske Research discusses USD outlook going into next week's September FOMC meeting.

The Fed remaining on hold next week would mark a short-term upside risk to our bearish EUR/USD view, but the exact vote split will matter a lot for the market reaction. If Warsh again votes for a hold despite his hawkish remarks at Jackson Hole, markets could reconsider their confidence in his communication. The outcome would likely mirror the repricing seen after the July meeting, with higher long-end inflation expectations driving curve steepening and broadly weaker USD FX.

However, if he votes for a hike, and simply fails to get the committee majority on board, we would expect markets to maintain pricing for hikes in the later meetings. At the end of the day, we think the macro case for tightening policy at a later stage is still very much alive. In the latter scenario, we would consider any temporary USD sell-off as a good opportunity to re-enter USD longs," Danske addas.

(Corrects typo in line 5)

• NY opened near 0.7215 after AUD/USD hit a 4-month high of 0.7238 overnight

• The pair rallied early with help from gold, silver gains & broad-based USD selling

• US yields , USD then rallied sharply after the US Treasury buyback news

• Stocks added to losses while gold, silver moved downward, AUD/USD hit 0.7210

• The USD then weakened while stocks moved up & gold, silver, copper rallied

• AUD/USD sat near 0.7220 late, it traded up +0.06% in NY's afternoon

• Daily & monthly RSIs indicate upward momentum but a daily doji formed

• US August PPI is a key data risk for Thursday
audusd

(Christopher Romano is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

Morgan Stanley Research previews the US August CPI report due on Friday

"We expect core CPI to rise 0.23% m/m (2.4% y/y), broadly in line with July's 0.22% increase, as core goods inflation moderates following the one-off price increases in Apple electronics. Overall, we believe tariff-related inflation is nearing its end, and therefore expect further normalization in goods prices," MS notes.

"On the services side, we forecast a modest pickup despite softer airfares, largely reflecting a rebound in categories that were unusually weak in July.In particular, we expect stronger readings in hotel prices and household operations, two components that tend to be especially volatile. We expect headline CPI at 0.41%m/m (3.4%y/y), pushed by gasoline prices," MS adds.

Sterling's sloth-like rise from its early-September low near 1.3475 toward today's 1.3566 high has come as fiscal concerns ebb on softening long-end yields, and broad USD selling against other major currencies — but the recovery looks fragile and may leave the pound trailing as other major central banks shift to more hawkish tacks.

This recent ascent can largely be attributed to the unwinding of long USD positions, driven by a persistent global inflation narrative that has bolstered hawkish expectations for central banks across developed markets. However, this macro shift poses a risk of sidelining sterling in comparison to its peers.

Despite sterling being one of the higher yielding currencies, the pivot to a tighter monetary policy by the Fed, ECB, BoC, and even the traditionally cautious BoJ could see the pound lagging, as the Bank of England (BoE) maintains a relatively static policy stance.

While UK inflation remains stubbornly high, with July's headline figure rising to 2.9% from 2.6% in June, the BoE's cautious approach to tackling inflation may disadvantage sterling against other G7 currencies.

Additionally, growth concerns stemming from high borrowing costs are choking off investment and consumption, contributing to increased fiscal anxiety. UK long-end yields have surged to multi-decade highs, raising questions about Prime Minister Andy Burnham's fiscal strategies ahead of the upcoming UK Autumn Budget in October.

As the central bank meeting cycle unfolds, with a fully priced ECB hike and 60-80% odds for rate increases from the Fed, BoJ, and RBA, sterling faces a 12% chance for a BoE hike, according to LSEG's IRPR. While a BoE hike is anticipated by year-end, the recent GBP/USD gains may face headwinds as other central banks potentially act sooner.
Sterling Chart:

(Paul Spirgel is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

MUFG Research discusses the latest comments from US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent

"The yen has continued to strengthen overnight resulting in USD/JPY falling back towards the 153.00-level. The stronger yen has been encouraged by bullish comments from US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent overnight who stated that “I am the house now, so when we intervene with the Japanese yen, I have pretty good insight into what the Japanese, what the Bank of Japan is going to do, what Japanese policymakers are going to do...and you can bet against me if you want”. He pushed back against his critics who have criticized the decision to intervene alongside Japan to support the yen by stating “whenever people say, ‘Oh, well, Treasury Secretary is taking a risk’, - well, it’s my dream, I have asymmetric information”.," MUFG notes.

"The comments will reinforce expectations that the Japan has agreed to change domestic policies to provide more support for the yen and back up support from joint intervention. It already appears increasingly likely the BoJ will speed up the pace of rate hikes this month which is helping the yen to rebound without the need for further intervention," MUFG adds.

Goldman Sachs highlights the key levels in USD/JPY going into this week's August PPI (Thurs) and CPI (Fri) reports.

" Levels: Into CPI/PPI expect USDJPY to hold into the 152-153 area as clients take profit and some CTA positioning cleaned up. Expect spot to stall into 155.20 and 158.50 to be major resistance," GS notes.

On a break of 152.00, target 148.00," GS adds.

• AUD/USD rallied to 0.7238 overnight as USD fell & gold, silver rallied

• Sellers emerged after the 4-month high traded and the pair turned lower

• USD rallied on US yield gains & oil breaking $100 per barrel

• Drop in equities & pull backs in gold, silver added weight on AUD/USD

• 0.7212 traded ahead of NY's open, the pair was down -0.01% in early NY

• Daily techs warn bulls; RSI diverged on the high, inverted hammer candle formed

• Rising monthly RSI, 15-mo Bolli bands & monthly bull hammer a bullish signals
audusd

(Christopher Romano is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• EUR/USD unable to close above the 200-dma at 1.1634 - a break might encourage bulls toward 21 Aug highs at 1.1711

• Limited/familiar ranges continue to weigh on FX option prices - implied volatility languishes at long term lows

• Even overnight expiry which includes the more significant than usual PPI data, is only marginally above recent lows

• Actual/realised volatility measures are below implied - further sapping incentive for long option positions

• Directional trades remain limited too - further evidence that the EUR/USD FX option market is lacking conviction

• Risk reversal contracts recognise the lack of conviction too - all expiry dates returning to a neutral, from downside bias

• Related - FX option expiries - the big strikes for Wednesday September 9
EUR/USD FX options


EUR/USD 25 delta risk reversals

(Richard Pace is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• Cable falls from 1.3566 to 1.3541 as Brent crude hits $100/barrel

• 1.3541 is fractionally fresh intra-day low (1.35415 was Asia low)

• Two and five-year gilt yields rise to one-week high on $100 oil price

• 1.3566 is high since August 28 (when USD rose on hawkish Warsh)

• Rise to 1.3566 influenced by Bessent's "I am the house now" boast

• UK food price inflation to rise above 6% next year, industry body says

GBPUSD

(Robert Howard is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• Cable rises to 1.3566, its highest level since August 28

• 1.3598 was August 28 high - before dollar rose on hawkish Warsh

• Dollar weakness against the yen is source of support for GBP/USD

• Bessent: "I have pretty good insight into what the BOJ is going to do"

• 1.3550 (former resistance level) is now a GBP/USD support point

• Bailey pushes back against idea of BoE rate hike being inevitable

GBPUSD

(Robert Howard is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• EUR/USD rising to highest since Aug 28 at 1.1645 on Sep 9

• Brent crude oil has risen by $11 pb since Aug 28

• Price of natural gas has increased by 19% in same period

• The eurozone imports energy which the U.S. exports

• Higher cost of energy should weigh EUR/USD

• $100 oil is a huge spanner in works of plans to strengthen the yen

•
EURUSD, natgas and oil

(Jeremy Boulton is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• AUD/USD hits 0.72365 after extending north from 0.7218 (Asia low)

• 0.72365 is fresh four-month high (0.7231 was Tuesday top)

• Australian dollar buoyed by hawkish RBA rate expectations

• Goldman Sachs now forecasts RBA hike on September 29

• GS also says a follow-up RBA hike in November is "a material risk"

• AUD/USD bull targets include 0.7277 (May high) and 0.73

AUDUSD

(Robert Howard is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• AUD/USD +0.3% mtd, post-Jun rally extending as RBA hike anticipation builds

• Strong commodity prices and hawkish RBA rhetoric remain key AUD drivers

• Brent crude +1.8% Wed in Asia as U.S.-Iran war broadens and escalates

• Focus shifting toward U.S. Aug PPI due Thur, and CPI Fri (poll +0.4% m/m)

• AUD targets 0.72825 50-month high, break above will amplify upside potential

• Range Asia 0.7218-265 support 0.7122 0.6920, resistance 0.7277-82 0.7661
AUD Daily 21/55/100-DMA

(James Connell is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

• GBP/USD inches higher in Asia but resistance at 1.3550-60 likely to cap

• Escalation in U.S.-Iran conflict, higher oil prices constrain upside

• U.S. PPI Thu, CPI Fri key; will determine whether Fed hikes rates on Sep 16

• UK has busy Fri too; July GDP, industrial & manufacturing output, trade due

• Next week brings July employment, Aug inflation, BoE rate decision Sep 17

• BoE to hold rates, show patience with war-driven inflation: Reuters poll

• More resistance at 1.3575, 1.3600; support 1.3520, 1.3500, 1.3470-75

• Tuesday range 1.3522-1.3561, Asia 1.3541-1.3548
GBP:

(Krishna Kumar is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

• AUD/USD +0.1% Wed, oil prices surging as U.S.-Iran war broadens & escalates

• Futures pricing now implies 72.9% probability RBA will hike 25 bps in Sep

• RBA's Hauser says board will debate Sep hike amidst inflation concern

• Focus will shift to U.S. Aug PPI due Thur, and CPI Fri (poll +0.4% m/m)

• AUD targets 0.72825 50-month high, break above will boost topside potential

• Range Asia 0.7218-26 support 0.7122 0.6920, resistance 0.7277-82 0.7661
AUD Daily 21/100/200-DMA

(James Connell is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

• Australian gold stocks fall as much as 2.6%, their biggest intraday pct loss since September 2

• Bullion prices fell on Tuesday amid rising inflation concerns and expectations of a rate hike by U.S. Federal Reserve this month [GOL/]

• Major producers Evolution Mining and Northern Star Resources trade ex-dividend; stock down 3.7% and 3.1%, respectively

• Shares of Westgold Resources fall over 6%, becoming one of worst performers in the benchmark index

• Sub-index up ~1.4% YTD, including the session's moves

(Reporting by Anjali Singh in Bengaluru)