Synopsis:

BofA forecasts solid job growth for August, with nonfarm payrolls expected to rise by 200k. They anticipate declines in the unemployment rate and labor force participation rate, alongside moderate increases in earnings and hours worked.

Key Points:

1. Job Growth Expectations:

   • Nonfarm Payrolls: Forecasted to increase by 200k, up from 114k in July. This includes a 30k rise in public sector hiring, driven by local employment, and a 170k increase in private payrolls.
   • Sector Highlights: Robust hiring is expected in education and healthcare.

2. Unemployment and Participation Rates:

   • Unemployment Rate: Expected to decline by 0.1pp to 4.2%.
   • Labor Force Participation Rate: Anticipated to decrease by 0.1pp to 62.6%.

3. Earnings and Hours Worked:

   • Average Hourly Earnings: Forecasted to rise by 0.3% m/m.
   • Average Weekly Hours: Expected to increase to 34.3 hours.

Conclusion:

BofA predicts a strong jobs report for August, with significant payroll gains, slight decreases in unemployment and labor force participation rates, and moderate increases in wages and hours worked.