CIBC Research discusses its reaction to today's US retail sales report for the month of April.
"US retailers better hope that April showers bring May flowers, because April on its own was a disappointment after a solid pick-up in March.
The headline drop of 0.2% followed on the heels of a 1.7% gain in March (prev. reported as 1.6%), so its hard to pin down the trend in these choppy results. Autos were part of the miss, but even ex-auto sales gain of 0.1% wasn't great, albeit again after a 1.3% advance in March. The "control group" that feeds most directly into consumption (autos get picked up in unit sales) was only flat, after a 1.1% gain in March, and overall is still running a bit lower than where the trend line prior to an ugly December would have had it. Ex-gasoline sales (which helps strip out the impact of higher pump prices) are up a modest 2.1% annualized in the last three months," CIBC notes.
"The below consensus results are supportive for fixed income, and a slight negative for the US dollar," CIBC adds.