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Sept 29 (Reuters) - USD/JPY could be broadly steady until the US jobs report on Friday. The data will likely sway market expectations for the next Federal Open Market Committee policy decision on October 28.
Official comments have helped cap USD/JPY for now with Japanese Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Japan's top currency diplomat Atsushi Mimura speaking out against a weak yen late last week and Monday , , , .
Markets are currently pricing around a 70% chance of a 25-basis-point FOMC hike in October, though expectations are not uniform so soon after this month's hike .
The Reuters poll forecasts a 90,000 increase in non-farm payrolls in September following August's 162,000 gain. The unemployment rate is seen unchanged at 4.1%.
Ahead of this crucial release, USD/JPY could be a story of the battle between Japanese importers and exporters and another battle between those now long the yen and bears looking to short again.
Japanese importer demand remains undiminished given elevated import costs. Energy prices are higher again due to the resumption of Middle East hostilities.
However, Japanese exporters have plenty to repatriate given good sales and especially with most budget assumptions for the fiscal year above USD/JPY 155. They are likely to continue with forward sales following the scare when USD/JPY plunged to 152.89 EBS on September 8.
As to positioning, IMM CTAs have pared some yen longs entered on the USD/JPY drop to 152.89. Net JPY longs have fallen to 71,982 as of September 22 from 120,359 contracts as of September 15 . More long liquidation appears to have occurred since, with USD/JPY climbing to 159.03 on September 24.
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USD/JPY:
Fed rate expectations and short-term yields:
(Haruya Ida is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own. Editing by Sonali Desai)