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Goldman Sachs Research previews the US July jobs report due on Friday.
"We expect a 75k increase in payrolls in July. We expect a small further boost from World Cup hiring, which only began to unwind after the July reference period. On the negative side, payrolls have missed consensus expectations in July in recent years, and there have also been large negative revisions to job growth for prior months," GS notes.
"We expect the unemployment rate to rebound 0.1pp to 4.3%, in part because of modest upward pressure from compositional effects related to the reversal of June’s large decline in participation. We forecast a 0.3% increase in average hourly earnings, reflecting neutral calendar effects. Wage growth appears to have stabilized in the mid-3s, where our wage tracker and wage survey leading indicator have roughly converged," GS adds.