• AUD/USD fell below the 10-DMA in Asia, 0.7018 traded, buyers emerged

• 0.7043 hit in Europe's morning, NY opened near 0.7035, up +0.11%

• USD selling, US yield & USD/CNH drops helped limit the downside

• Drops in gold, silver, copper & equities helped cap AUD/USD's upside

• AUD/USD traded positive overnight despite soured risk sentiment

• Techs are bullish; RSIs are rising, pair is above the 10- & 21-DMAs

• Monthly bull hammer, bull pennant on monthly chart reinforce bull signals
audusd

(Christopher Romano is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• Yen gains after BOJ; AI jitters dent dollar

• USD/JPY has slipped from 157.89 to 157.12, on Friday, according to EBS data

• Spot stuck within the daily cloud that currently spans 156.63-158.44 region, 155.96 50% level supports

• BOJ keeps rate steady at 1.25%, declares victory in hitting price target, signals near-term hikes

• Japanese stocks could face more downside with BOJ accelerating ETF sales

• USD/JPY and EUR/JPY tend to move in tandem, 30 and 60-day log correlations are high above +0.5

Daily Chart


Correlation Chart

(Martin Miller is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• AUD/USD has traded a 24.5 pip range thus far Friday; 0.7018-0.70425

• Those parameters are within Thursday's 0.7015-0.7068 range

• 0.7068 was five-week high (0.6895 was 15-week low last week)

• CFTC data at 2030 GMT will show if net AUD short shrank in week to Oct 27

• Net AUD short hit all-time high of 127,292 contracts in week Oct 20

• Thirty out of 32 economists polled by Reuters expect RBA hike on Nov 3

AUDUSD

(Robert Howard is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• FX options expire at 10am New York / 14:00 GMT on Friday October 30

• EUR/USD: 1.0925 (495M), 1.0975 (600M), 1.1000-05 (477M), 1.1015 (230M), 1.1025 (596M), 1.1045-50 (200M), 1.1075-80 (1.7B), 1.1100 (1.8B), 1.1120-25 (1.1B)

• EUR/USD: 1.1150-55 (5.7B), 1.1160-65 (615M), 1.1170-75 (2.9B), 1.1200-05 (4.6B), 1.1220-25 (896M), 1.1235-40 (448M), 1.1250 (762M), 1.1275-80 (1.1B), 1.1300-05 (1.1B)

• USD/JPY: 153.00-05 (551M), 153.75 (272M), 154.00 (508M), 155.00 (2.2B), 155.40 (1.9B), 155.50 (431M), 156.00 (1.3B), 156.95-157.00 (1.6B), 157.20-25 (329M)

• USD/JPY: 157.47-50 (876M), 157.70-75 (299M), 157.80-85 (870M), 157.95-158.00 (2.2B), 158.05-10 (233M), 158.15-20 (710M), 158.30-35 (418M), 158.50 (203M), 159.30-35 (257M)

• GBP/USD: 1.3000 (241M), 1.3100 (574M), 1.3150 (499M), 1.3200-05 (492M), 1.3250 (262M), 1.3300 (726M), 1.3320-25 (224M), 1.3400 (246M), 1.3500 (533M), 1.3545-50 (238M)

• EUR/GBP: 0.8400 (270M), 0.8500 (270M), 0.8580-85 (887M). EUR/SEK: 11.2500 (384M)

• USD/CHF: 0.8205-10 (512M), 0.8325 (610M), 0.8400 (202M). EUR/CHF: 0.9250 (452M), 0.9275-80 (268M), 0.9350 (641M), 0.9365 (200M)

• AUD/USD: 0.6925 (612M), 0.7000-05 (902M), 0.7010 (275M), 0.7025-30 (1.6B), 0.7050 (463M), 0.7060 (288M), 0.7075-80 (606M), 0.7350 (299M)

• NZD/USD: 0.5550-55 (220M), 0.5620 (207M). AUD/NZD: 1.2300 (1.2B), 1.2325 (412M), 1.2400 (623M), 1.2475 (411M)

• USD/CAD: 1.3725 (201M), 1.3900 (369M), 1.3920-25 (370M), 1.3995-1.4000 (409M), 1.4025-30 (1.2B), 1.4035-40 (796M), 1.4045-50 (325M), 1.4070-75 (292M), 1.4095-1.4100 (503M)

• USD/ZAR: 15.2500 (225M), 16.0000-16.0500 (695M), 16.2000-16.2465 (225M), 16.4925-16.5000 (333M), 16.7500-16.7550 (237M)(Martin Miller is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• GBP/USD climbs to 1.3412 (one-week high) as AI jitters weigh on dollar

• Stocks sink, bonds leap as AI giants' spending spooks investors

• Prior AI jitters helped inflate cable to 1.3418 (five-week peak) last week

• 1.3383 (Thursday high) is now a support point (1.3378 was Asia low)

• Thursday low was 1.3299. Wednesday low was 1.3274 (pre-UK budget)

• Binance freezes assets after $6.3 billion heist, crypto industry's biggest

GBPUSD

(Robert Howard is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

(Adds coding for topics and RICS)

• EUR/USD rises from 1.1105 on Thursday to 1.1215 EBS on Friday

• US 10-year yield drops to 4.92%

• Spread with Germany narrows to 159bps, tightest since late Sep

• Traders were heavily short euros in advance ECB meeting

• Drop was stretched at base Bollinger bands

• Bigger rise toward 1.1248 or 1.1336 correction targets possible

•
EURUSD

(Jeremy Boulton is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• Australian silver stocks fall, while the broader mining sub-index slips 0.8%

• Spot silver prices slide alongside those of gold and platinum as higher oil prices and robust US inflation data strengthen the case for another Fed rate hike [GOL/]

• Sun Silver slips as much as 5.2% to A$0.73, their largest intraday pct fall since October 23; stock set to eke out slight 1.4% weekly gain

• Silver Mines declines as much as 4.2% to A$0.115; however, stock set to gain 9.5% for the week

(Reporting by Nikita Maria Jino in Bengaluru)

• Australian copper stocks fall on the day, adding to the broader mining sub-index's 0.8% decline

• Prices for the red metal fell from two-week highs overnight as investors remained wary of high US inventories and cautious overthe level of AI-related demand [MET/L]

• Shares of Sandfire Resources fall as much as 1.7% to A$19.92; still set for 9% weekly gain

• Australia-listed shares of Capstone Copper slip as much as 1.8% to A$11.81, though still on track for 6.5% gain on the week

• Capstone on pace to snap four straight weeks of losses

(Reporting by Nikita Maria Jino in Bengaluru)

• Australian gold stocks decline as much as 1.3%, breaking a four-day streak of gains to head for their worst day in a week

• Gold prices edge lower in Asian trading on Friday after tumbling more than 1% in the previous session, as persistent US inflation reinforced expectations of additional Federal Reserve interest rate hikes, denting demand for bullion [GOL/]

• Shares of Evolution Mining drop 0.3%, while Northern Star Resources gains 0.7% on the sub-index

• YTD, gold stocks down 8.5%

(Reporting by Subhalakshmi Dey in Bengaluru)

• USD/JPY slumping into the BOJ policy announcement

• From an early high of 157.89 to 157.19 EBS, still looking weak

• Fall could be on second thoughts on a BOJ hike today?

• Tokyo October CPI data high and well above BOJ's 2% target

• Expectations for continuing rises in national inflation data too

• Also of interest fall in more AI-technology stocks after NYSE close

• In addition to Alphabet profit miss, Amazon and Intel profits down too

• AI-hyperscaler concerns on the rise again

• Recent USD/JPY moves tied to moves in global equities

• JPY again seen as a haven of sorts?

• This despite Nikkei falls as foreign investors take off currency hedges

• Related , on Tokyo CPI/economy

• On Amazon, Intel shares , for more click on [FXBUZ]

USD/JPY hourly:


S&P E-Minis Index - hourly:


Nikkei 225 hourly:

(Haruya Ida is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• AUD/USD flat Fri amid softening sentiment as AI trade starts to wobble

• AUD Q3 PPI +1.1% q/q, +3.6% y/y (prior +1.3% and 3.6% respectively)

• Alphabet revenue miss, Amazon sales downgrade stoke U.S. equity fears

• AU domestic attention firmly trained on Tue's RBA meeting outcome

• Futures pricing currently implies 89.2% probability of 25 bps RBA hike Tue

• AUD break above 0.7071 55-DMA would open window for challenge of 0.7140

• Range Asia 0.7018-30 support 0.6865 0.6834, resistance 0.7140 0.7282
AUD Daily 21/55/100-DMA

(James Connell is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

• USD/JPY trading tad lower ahead of BOJ, Asia 157.60-89 EBS

• USD tad lower across the board with Wall Street, US Treasury yields off

• USD/JPY still ensconced in 156.63-158.44 daily Ichi cloud, 200-DMA 158.55

• Pivoting around 157.84-158.03 ascending hourly Ichimoku cloud

• Support from area of 100/200-HMAs at 157.68/67? Bids below?

• Some large option expiries in area again today, to help contain spot?

• On 156 $2.1 bln, 157.00-50 $2.5 bln, 157.65-95 $1.3 bln, 158.00 $2.1 bln

• Also between 158.05-75 strikes total $1.9 bln

• JGB-US Treasury rate differentials narrower again, 2s @278, 10s @216 bps

• BOJ hawkish hold eyed but surprise hike would send yen higher

• Japanese exporters, others to sell on any hike, importer buys on slump

• Related comments , , ,

• And , , also

• US markets , , ,

• More on BOJ , Fed ,
USD/JPY daily:


USD/JPY hourly:


USD/JPY nearby option expiries into next week:

(Haruya Ida is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• NZD/USD +0.5% from Thur 0.56071 low, as impact from RBNZ hold dissipates

• Traders now contemplating magnitude and timing of subsequent OCR hikes

• Futures pricing currently implies 77.3% probability of Dec 9 RBNZ hike

• Alphabet revenue miss, Amazon sales downgrade add to U.S. equity anxiety

• U.S. Sep core PCE +0.3% m/m (inline), Q3 GDP advance +3.4% y/y (poll 3.2%)

• NZ Q3 jobs data due Wed (prior 5.6% unemployment, +0.5% job growth q/q)

• NZD sellers ahead of 0.5639 21-DMA, break above likely to flip narrative

• Range NZ 0.5626-35, support 0.5566 0.5485, resistance 0.5995 0.6012
NZD Daily 21/55/100-DMA

(James Connell is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

ING Research reviews the October BoC policy meeting.

"The Bank of Canada raised rates by 25bp to 2.50% yesterday, in line with market expectations. Stronger activity and growing concerns about cost pass-through suggest this is unlikely to be a one-and-done move, although policymakers stressed they will proceed carefully. We expect another 25bp hike in 1Q27, most likely in January, with the risk that persistently high energy prices bring that move forward to December. That said, we think markets are too hawkish in pricing around 90bp of tightening over the next 12 months. The BoC’s central estimate of neutral is around 2.75%, and while second-round inflation effects should emerge as firms pass higher costs to consumers, we expect them to remain contained, particularly when it comes to wage growth. Our base case therefore remains that rates peak at 2.75%," ING notes.

"For CAD, oil remains the key swing factor. High prices can keep December hike expectations alive and support the currency, but we remain bearish on oil and think a correction would trigger dovish BoC repricing. We therefore see limited room for CAD gains from the domestic story alone and retain our year-end USD/CAD target of 1.420," ING adds.

• AUD/USD -0.5% from Thur 0.7068 high as markets recalibrate pre-RBA meeting

• Futures pricing currently implies 83.8% probability of 25 bps RBA hike Tue

• AUD break above 0.7072 55-DMA would pave way for challenge of 0.7140

• AU Q3 PPI due 0030 GMT, prior +1.3% q/q, +3.6% y/y

• Alphabet revenue miss, Amazon sales downgrade add to U.S. equity anxiety

• U.S. Sep core PCE +0.3% m/m (inline), Q3 GDP advance +3.4% y/y (poll 3.2%)

• Overnight range 0.70146-465 support 0.6865 0.6834, resistance 0.7140 0.7282
AUD Daily 21/55/100-DMA

(James Connell is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

The euro gained on Thursday after the European Central Bank left rates unchanged, as expected, but warned on energy-cost inflation risks, reinforcing bets for a December hike.

ECB policymakers are expected to hike rates in December before pausing as higher bond yields weigh on growth, sources told Reuters.

ECB President Christine Lagarde resigned and will step down on February 7.

The dollar was pressured by softer Treasury yields, lower oil prices amid peace-talk hopes, and Nasdaq weakness driven by AI spending concerns.

Yields fell despite US PCE inflation accelerating in September to 3.6% annualized, Q3 GDP beating forecasts and new jobless claims hovering near 57-year lows.

In geopolitics, Russian President Vladimir Putin supports restoring ties with Europe but is prepared for war if tensions escalate, though it wants to avoid conflict.

President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said Ukraine has intelligence that Russia is planning new ballistic missile strikes and needs the means to counter them.

In a hopeful sign of improving relations, President Donald Trump, who has been engaged in a tariff war with Canada, told a rally that Canada has been "treating us extremely nicely recently".

His comments followed European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen saying that the EU and Canada are continuing talks on Canada becoming the bloc's first associate member.

Sweden's parliament speaker said he has decided lawmakers will vote on Centre Party leader Elisabeth Thand Ringqvist as prime minister although she has said earlier she has not been able to secure a majority.

The dollar was mostly lower, with large futures block trades pointing to month-end repositioning.

The pound and Swedish krona outperformed their G10 peers ahead of expected rate hikes by the Bank of England and Riksbank next week.

EUR/USD rebounded from a 17-month low at 1.1105 to 1.1173 as softer US yields offset the ECB hold, with scope for a short squeeze while support at 1.1105 holds.

GBP/USD climbed toward its 100-DMA at 1.3388, supported by BOE hike expectations and the UK's rate advantage, with the 50% retracement at 1.3406 in focus.

USD/JPY remained rangebound around 158 ahead of the BOJ, with nearby support at the 55-DMA of 157.62 and resistance at 158.44 cloud top and 158.55 200-DMA, with intervention risks likely to intensify on gains.

AUD/USD fell as risk assets and metals weakened, leaving techs mixed above the 0.70 level and below its 55- and 200-DMAs as a falling RSI weighs.

Treasury yields fell 4 to 8 basis points as the curve steepened. The 2s-10s curve was up about 1 basis point to +33.0bp.

The S&P 500 slipped 0.54% as a drop in tech shares weighed.

WTI oil fell 0.68%, paring a steeper loss.

Gold slid 1.3% toward $4000/oz and copper dropped just over 1%.

Heading toward the close: EUR/USD +0.08%, USD/JPY +0.06%, GBP/USD +0.25%, AUD/USD -0.34%, DXY -0.16%, EUR/JPY +0.15%, GBP/JPY +0.35%, AUD/JPY -0.26%.(Editing by Burton Frierson Robert Fullem is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• NY opened near 0.7040 after 0.7068 traded overnight, pair's slide then extended

• Soured risk weighed; gold, silver, stocks, copper sank which weighed on AUD/USD

• The pair pierced the 10-DMA, traded to 0.7015, buyers then emerged however

• USD selling took hold& yields added to earlier losses; 0.7041 was neared

• A slight pull back had AUD/USD near 0.7035 late, it traded down only -0.28%

• Techs are mixed; daily RSI is falling & AUD/USD holds below the 55- & 200-DMAs

• Rising monthly RSI, hold above the 10- & 21-DMAs give bulls some comfort
audusd

(Christopher Romano is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

Goldman Sachs sees JPY as an attractive hedge to AI slowdown.

"Last week, USDJPY was the go-to instrument for FX and cross-asset clients who had exposure to AI Credit or Equities and needed structural hedges, with demand for 3m-6m downside binaries. FX will typically outperform on a cross-asset basis when you get higher recession risk, and JPY has a high beta within FX to an AI slowdown. Japan also owns $1.3trn of US Equities, which would be a second-order impact supporting this trade," GS notes.

"More generally, currencies that have more to come out in terms of rate hike premium are going to do worse relative to those that don't have much in already – EURAUD works on this front, and it has also crossed the multi-year technical break at 1.60," GS adds.

• Ether fell below the 38.2% Fib of 1510.95-2805.45 earlier in the session

• Traded down to a 5-session low of 2292.26, buyers then emerged however

• Ether turned positive, neared 2365.00 after Europe's close, was up +0.28%

• Drops in US yields and USD selling helped lift Ether off the low

• Bitcoin's sharp rally off its low, positive turn contributed to Ether's buoyancy

• Ether's price action has daily techs flashing warnings to Ether bears

• Daily RSI diverged on the low & is rising, daily bull hammer candle formed

• Ether still traded within its recent consolidations range however

• Break & sustained hold above 10-DMA, 2400/2415 could lead to a short squeeze
eth

(Christopher Romano is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

Morgan Stanley Research previews the October BoJ decision on Friday.

"We expect the BoJ to keep the policy rate unchanged at 1.25% and maintain our view that the next rate hike will come in December.

The BoJ is likely to judge, for the first time since the price stability target was introduced in 2013, that underlying inflation is around 2%," MS notes.

(removes link in 2nd bullet)

• Euro dips after ECB rate hold, with EUR/GBP down to 0.8347

• 0.8347 is new 18-month low (0.8355 was low before ECB rate hold)

• Bids likely around 0.8333 and 0.8300, including corporate interest

• 0.8333 equates to GBP/EUR 1.20. Cross last at 0.8300 in March 2025

• News briefing from outgoing ECB chief Lagarde starts at 1345 GMT

• BoE rate decision next week (Nov 5); 25 bps hike to 4% expected

EURGBP

(Robert Howard is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

JP Morgan on USD/JPY into the October BoJ decision on Friday.

"USD/JPY's stubbornness in the high 150s reflects a tug-of-war between a firm policy ceiling and fading yield support, rather than any single dominant driver...The October BoJ meeting is unlikely to be the catalyst that breaks this range, even as the Bank formally claims a historic milestone. Per Reuters, the BoJ is set to acknowledge in its Outlook Report that it has hit the 2% inflation target for the first time in nearly 14 years — but we expect this to validate the September hike and underpin a quarterly tightening cadence rather than spur back-to-back moves, as the BoJ will want time to assess policy transmission before acting again," JPM notes.

"Because a quarterly pace of rate hikes is already priced into the OIS curve, confirmation alone is unlikely to lift terminal pricing, and the Bank's reluctance to signal consecutive hikes could cap more aggressive tightening bets — leaving limited scope for material JPY appreciation out of the October MPM, and leaves the currency more exposed to global risk and rates development," JPM adds.

Bank of America Global Research previews the October BoJ meeting on Friday.

"We expect the BoJ Policy Board to keep the policy rate unchanged at 1.25% at the 29-30 October Monetary Policy Meeting (MPM). The most likely vote is 8-1, with board member Takata casting the lone dissent in favor of a hike. In the Outlook Report, we expect the board to judge, for the first time, that "underlying inflation" has reached the 2% target," BofA notes.

"But the BoJ has already shifted to a policy stance that assumes underlying inflation is near 2% and places greater weight on preventing an overshoot. Rather than signaling a further acceleration in hikes, the Outlook Report and Governor Ueda's press conference should reinforce expectations for continued quarterly hikes, with the next move likely in December," BofA adds.

• EUR/GBP eyes 0.8361 (this week's 17-month low) as Lagarde exit news digested

• European Central Bank chief Lagarde will step down from her role on Feb 7

• ECB rate hold expected at 1315 GMT; Lagarde briefing starts at 1345 GMT

• Euro could weaken if Lagarde is relatively dovish; 0.8333 is EUR/GBP bear target

• 0.8333 = GBP/EUR 1.20. UK will reduce "unsustainable" welfare costs, Healey says

• UK lenders approve fewest mortgages since 2023 as borrowing costs rise

EURGBP

(Robert Howard is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)