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Morgan Stanley Research prefers hedging further USD runs via short GBP/USD expressions over short EUR/USD exposure.
"For investors looking to hedge for a potential further USD run, we think GBP/USD shorts are the most attractive expression... On the whole, we think consensus is generally less constructive on European currencies. In risk-on periods, we think short EUR/ EM and short EUR versus cyclical G10 currencies (e.g., EUR/AUD) have been popular. If investors pivot from cyclical risk-on currencies toward a safer haven USD, EUR and GBP are likely to be prime candidates to express this view," MS notes.
"We would prefer GBP/USD over EUR/USD because, in the near term, we think there remains scope for investors to add GBP-negative risk premium. For more on our GBP cautious view, see here," MS adds.