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Goldman Sachs sees JPY as an attractive hedge to AI slowdown.
"Last week, USDJPY was the go-to instrument for FX and cross-asset clients who had exposure to AI Credit or Equities and needed structural hedges, with demand for 3m-6m downside binaries. FX will typically outperform on a cross-asset basis when you get higher recession risk, and JPY has a high beta within FX to an AI slowdown. Japan also owns $1.3trn of US Equities, which would be a second-order impact supporting this trade," GS notes.
"More generally, currencies that have more to come out in terms of rate hike premium are going to do worse relative to those that don't have much in already – EURAUD works on this front, and it has also crossed the multi-year technical break at 1.60," GS adds.