CIBC Research discusses its reaction to today's FOMC minutes from the September meeting.
"The FOMC minutes from the September meeting showed similar divisions to what were seen in the earlier released statement and projections.
Participants were generally still concerned about the outlook, with trade uncertainty possibly spilling over into the labor market and consumer spending ahead, but there were some participants that did not think the risks to the outlook would derail the expansion, suggesting that outside of the two hawkish dissents, that there are some non-voters who feel that the US economy is strong enough to negate the need for further interest rate cuts. Still, there were many who saw little risk to the upside on inflation from cutting rates further, and stressed the importance of watching for signs of stress in the labor market to judge if additional monetary policy easing is necessary,' CIBC notes.
Overall, given Powell's lack of commitment to further easing in his comments yesterday, it doesn't appear that the committee is headed toward a rate cut in October unless the situation deteriorates.
As a result, we are sticking with our call that the Fed will wait until December to pull the trigger on another quarter point cut. Little market reaction is expected given that Powell provided a more up to date assessment from the viewpoint of the Fed's leadership yesterday," CIBC adds.