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Nov 07 - 12:12 PM
USD/JPY - COMMENT-USD/JPY Good For 110.50 In A Trade Deal Driven Breakout
First appeared on eFXplus on Nov 07 - 10:10 AM

If USD/JPY can clear the cluster of recent highs and technical hurdles in the 109.29-41 range, perhapsif the U.S. confirms China's indications of a deal to begin tariff de-escalation has been agreed in principle nL2N27N0L9, the next logical target will be by 110.50.
That level is the minimum measured objective -- an A = C-wave target derived from the rises off the August and October lows -- and the 76.4% Fibo of 2019's drop at 110.52.
The uptrend has stalled by the Aug.
1 pre-trade war escalation high, weekly cloud base and 61.8% of 2019's drop at 109.32/37, as well as the monthly kijun at 109.42.
Today's 108.65 low found strong support by the rising 21-DMA and daily tenkan, reaffirming the uptrend, as prices again flirt with recent highs by 109.30.
Fresh record highs in S&Ps, rebound highs in Treasury yields and USD/CNY's break below 38.2% of this year's trade-war driven rise all feed the risk-on USD/JPY uptrend.
The missing ingredient is U.S. confirmation of a signing date for a phase one trade deal that features tariff reductions. Traders can be forgiven for awaiting hard proof of a deal given twists in trade negotiations in the past.


Chart: Click here

Chart: Click here

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary

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