Bank of America Global Research previews the November BoE decision on Thursday.
"We don't expect a BoE display that will scare the children on 5th November. A 25bp hike is the catherine wheel that has been pinned to the post for a long time, but we see this is a 'safety first' event - resilient real data and the threat from energy price pass through justifies action. But it is preemptive insofar as it's about the threat of second round effects; actual signs of such effects are conspicuously modest so far," BofA notes.
"Without ruling anything out, we expect the MPC to temper the market's enthusiasm for an aggressive hiking trajectory, which would likley be seen ex-poste as a gentle appeal for calm. With this in mind, we recommend receiving June MPC-dated Sonia. The UK is not the only place where we see fewer hikes than the market prices, but it is where our market-vs-forecast "hawkish gap" is greatest. If we're right, a "dovish hike" would be a headwind for GBP, but we don't expect that it would do lasting damage with fundamentals improving," BofA adds.
