(Updates)

• Shares of gold miners gain, tracking rise in prices of the precious metal [GOL/]

• Spot gold up 0.6% at $4,016.37/ounce after hitting $3,975/ounce on Friday, its lowest level since July 20

• Gold prices rise, rebounding from the previous session's over-three-month low, as retreating oil prices tempered inflation concerns ahead of this week's Fed meeting

• Top miners Newmont gains ~1%, Barrick Gold

rises 1.1%

• US-listed shares of South African miners Gold Fields , Harmony Gold , AngloGold Ashanti and Sibanye-Stillwater gain ~1%-2.1%

• Canadian miners Agnico Eagle Mines adds 1.5% and Kinross Gold gains ~1%

(Reporting by Pooja Menon in Bengaluru)

JP Morgan on the USD outlook into this week's October FOMC meeting on Wednesday.

"We see USD-bullish risks around next week’s FOMC decision as the statement/presser could both lean hawkish in response to recent US data that has generally been stronger than expected, against rates pricing that has depriced significantly," JPM notes.

"Many FOMC members see above-target inflation as a temporary energy and tech shock, though some, like non-voter Goolsbee, worry the AI buildout could cause broader overheating, and there is a risk of dissents," JPM adds.

Sterling may struggle to extend its recent advance above 1.34 as a trio of risk events — the October 28 Fed decision, the UK Autumn Budget, and the November 5 BoE meeting — test a rally built on widening UK-US rate divergence and sticky UK inflation.

Cable's climb from the October 14 low of 1.3137 to last trading at 1.3374 has come amid data pointing to elevated UK prices and wages and a higher-for-longer BoE path. It has also been helped recently by an unwinding of GBP shorts put on amid recent French fiscal angst.

LSEG's IRPR implies the BoE may hike twice in 2026 against one Fed move, and further out the BoE strip futures currently indicate the BoE hiking by 116bp by the 2027 MPC meeting, versus a scant rise of 68bp for the Fed.

However, the upcoming UK Autumn Budget and central bank decisions introduce an element of uncertainty. While Prime Minister Andy Burnham has committed to current fiscal rules, market skepticism persists given the ongoing impact of inflation on UK households and the government's mandate to address affordability. Fiscal options are limited, and any perceived deviation from fiscal prudence could undermine sterling's strength.

Technically, GBP/USD meets resistance at 1.3406, the bruised 50% Fib of the 1.3675-1.3137 range, and 1.3470, the daily cloud twist. On the downside, bullish momentum wanes on a close below 1.3325, the rising 10-DMA, with bears then eyeing the October 14 French fiscal-related low at 1.3137.
GBP Chart:

(Paul Spirgel is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

Morgan Stanley Research previews the October FOMC meeting on Wednesday.

"We expect the Fed to hold rates at 3.75-4.0% in October, with two dissents. Chairman Warsh is likely to signal further tightening while emphasizing a gradual, trend-dependent approach. We expect 25bp hikes in December and March, with risks skewed toward more tightening.   No dissents, financial stability concerns, or a benign inflation assessment would be dovish signals. Three or more hawkish dissents, explicit tightening guidance, or heightened concerns about inflation and energy spillovers would be hawkish," MS notes.

"Our FX strategists expect the USD to remain supported despite an October Fed hold, with persistent US inflation, upside risks to global yields and US rate differentials, and European political uncertainty all favoring further USD strength," MS adds.

Bank of America Global Research previews the October BoC meeting on Wednesday.

"We expect BoC to hold at 2.25% on Oct 28, but it is a close call. Markets price in 85% chance of a hike, up from 35% a week prior, following hawkish communication and rising inflation expectations. Weak labor data and core inflation below target favor a hold; headline inflation above 3%, hawkish BoC communication, and rising inflation expectations leave meaningful hike risk," BofA notes

"Either outcome likely comes with hawkish communication and a move higher in Dec hike pricing. A surprise hold could trigger a sharp but short-lived rates rally, with the press conference likely to be hawkish. A hike likely delivers modest bear flattening. We would see a hike as the start of a small adjustment-2 total hikes-not a full hiking cycle," BofA adds.

• Broader G10 FX option implied volatility gains are capped by a lack of FX realised volatility

• EUR/USD 1-12-month curve retreats from last weeks highs - 1-month 6.5 vs 6.8, 1-year 7.0 vs 7.25

• A huge €10-billion+ of 1.1200 strike expiries and related hedging flow will help to shackle the pair this week

• However, risk reversal contacts show the options market remains wary of deeper EUR/USD declines

• Benchmark 1-month 25 delta risk reversals keeps last weeks new recovery high above 0.5 EUR puts over calls

• Risk reversals on other dates maintain a downside over upside strike premium, too

• Related comment - Break-even check: how far central banks could push FX this week
EUR/USD 25 delta risk reversals


Benchmark 1-month expiry FXO implied volatility

(Richard Pace is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• USD/JPY has risen from 156.66 to 157.36, so far on Monday, EBS data shows

• The daily cloud currently spans the 156.06-158.44 region, the base limited USD/JPY last week

• There seems to be solid support ahead of the 155.96 level, 50% of the 152.89-159.03 EBS rise

• Note euro firms against dollar and yen ahead of central bank meetings

• The Fed, ECB and BOJ are all expected to hold rates steady despite inflation pressures

Daily Chart


Daily Chart

(Martin Miller is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• US-listed shares of gold miners gain premarket, tracking rise in prices of the precious metal [GOL/]

• Spot gold up nearly 0.7% at $4,020.05/ounce after hitting its lowest level since mid-July in the previous session

• Gold edges higher as softer oil prices tempered inflation concerns, while investors awaited the US Federal Reserve's policy decision later this week

• Top miners Newmont , Barrick Gold up 1.4% each

• South African miners Gold Fields , Harmony Gold , AngloGold Ashanti and Sibanye-Stillwater

gain between 2.8% and 3.2%

• Canadian miner Agnico Eagle Mines rises 3.3%

(Reporting by Pooja Menon in Bengaluru)

• EURUSD is trading close to 1.1200, where a heavy run of option expiries falls this week

• Expiries and related hedging flows can help contain spot, so this level is worth watching

• Today's 10am NY cut (14.00 GMT) includes €1.7 billion of 1.1200-05 strikes

• Tuesday has €1 billion at 1.1200-10 and Wednesday has €4bn expiring between 1.1200-15

• If Wednesday's Fed fails to excite FX - Thursday brings another €2.5bn at 1.1200, and Friday €3.5bn at 1.1200
EUR/USD FX option strikes expiring Oct 26-Oct 30

(Richard Pace is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• Cable has traded a 28 pip range thus far Monday; 1.3360-1.3388

• 1.3388 was also the London and New York session high on Friday

• Support levels include 1.3355 (Thursday low), 1.3335 and 1.3300

• Mindful of the markets, UK's Healey is set to deliver a careful budget Wednesday

• CFTC data: net GBP short fell 20% from 9-year high to 80,420 in week to Oct 20

• Short-covering helped inflate GBP/USD from 1.3137 to 1.3418 (Oct 14-22)

GBPUSD

(Robert Howard is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• EUR/USD 1.1235-1.1199 EBS range on Monday

• Upside capped by 21-DMA in past week which is 1.1234 and falling

• German Oct IFO due 9GMT seen 90.0 from 89.9, expectations 90.0 from 90.4

• Oil remains elevated at $115 pb weighing EUR/USD

• Traders large $19 billion bet on euro dropping continues to underpin

• Break beyond 2026 low at 1.1113 or Oct 16 peak at 1.1270 to excite

•
EURUSD

(Jeremy Boulton is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• GBP/USD up 0.1% as dollar eases slightly & US crude futures fall 2% in Asia

• Supported by US-coordinated Qatari efforts to de-escalate regional tensions

• Upside limited; Houthi attacks in Saudi Arabia stoke energy supply concerns

• Wed UK budget eyed; two state-backed lenders to get £20 bln capital boost

• UK fin minister expected to announce 3.9% state pension increase-The Times

• Fed rate decision Wed, quarterly results from major US AI players also key

• Resistance at 55-day MA at 1.3411, 200-day MA at 1.3433, 61.8% Fibo @ 1.3469

• Support 1.3350-60, 1.3300-10; Fri range 1.3361-1.3407, Asia 1.33655-1.3388
UK tax:

(Krishna Kumar is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

• AUD/USD flat Mon, but +1.9% from 0.68945 mtd low on firming RBA hike bets

• WTI -1.9% Mon but still elevated on supply concerns, gold near 3-month lows

• AU Q3 CPI release due Wed, Reuters poll consensus 1.3% q/q, +3.9% y/y

• FOMC outcome and accompanying dialogue Wed will be heavily scrutinised

• AUD likely to encounter sellers between 0.7033 100-DMA & 0.7053 200-DMA

• Range Asia 0.7027-395 support 0.6865 0.6834, resistance 0.7053 0.7282
Gold Daily 21-DMA


AUD Daily 21/100/200-DMA

(James Connell is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

• AUD/USD -0.1% Mon, activity subdued as markets steady ahead of Fed meeting

• FOMC outcome and dialogue Wed the likely watershed events this week

• Gold consolidates below $4,000 per ounce, trades near 3-month lows

• WTI -1.4% in Asia, but remains elevated as Middle East turmoil continues

• AU Q3 CPI release due Wed, Reuters poll consensus 1.3% q/q, +3.9% y/y

• AUD likely to encounter sellers as it approaches 0.7053 200-DMA

• Range Asia 0.7027-395 support 0.6865 0.6834, resistance 0.7053 0.7282
AUD Daily 21/100/200-DMA


Gold Daily 21-DMA

(James Connell is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

• Haven demand sent JPY higher late last week, USD/JPY now around 157.00

• 157.00 likely the "new" 158.00, the new pivot of sorts

• USD/JPY 156.79-157.14 EBS so far today, off full yen from previous range

• With global equities likely heavy now on AI concerns, JPY haven still?

• Japanese exporter, other offers now seen lower by a full yen

• Japanese importer demand still but on dips only, at Tokyo fixes

• Spot ensconced in 156.07-158.44 daily Ichimoku cloud, tenkan/kijun 157.51/55

• Hourly Ichimoku 156.86-157.07, lower, descending 100-200-HMAs 157.56/86

• Option expiries today include $1.3 bln between 156.75-157.00, supportive?

• Also between 157.75-85 $517 mln, whopping $3.1 bln at 158.00 strike above

• JGB-US Treasury rate differentials narrower, in 2s @280, 10s @218 bps

• IMM CTA yen longs up as of last Tuesday to 69,878 contracts from 50,207

• USD bid elsewhere and working to limit yen gains

• Related comments , , , also

• US markets , , ,

• On IMM CTAs , also , for more click on [FXBUZ]

USD/JPY:


S&P Index:


Nikkei 225:

(Haruya Ida is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• NZD/USD flat Mon, activity subdued with NZ markets closed for holiday

• RBNZ monetary policy meeting outcome due Wed, 25 bps hike widely anticipated

• FOMC outcome (also due Wed) and associated dialogue could be pivotal for NZD

• Brent crude $116.72 a barrel as Middle East supply concerns re-escalate

• NZD remains clear of 0.5636 21-DMA, move towards 0.5770 zone seems likely

• Range NZ 0.5690-0.5700, support 0.5566 0.5485, resistance 0.5995 0.6012
NZD Daily 21/55/100-DMA

(James Connell is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

• AUD/USD +0.05% early Mon, markets cautious as AI trade concerns linger

• RBA's Hunter acknowledges government spending contributing to inflation

• AU Q3 CPI release due Wed, Reuters poll consensus 1.3% q/q, +3.9% y/y

• Futures pricing currently implies 62.3% chance of 25 bps RBA hike Nov 3

• AUD likely to encounter sellers between 0.7033 100-DMA & 0.7053 200-DMA

• Brent crude $116.72 a barrel amid ongoing Middle East turmoil, gold -0.7%

• Range early Asia 0.7027-385 support 0.6865 0.6834, resistance 0.7053 0.7282
AUD Daily 21/100/200-DMA


Brent Crude Daily & Gold Daily

(James Connell is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

• USD net G10 spec long fell $4.58bn in the Oct 14-20 IMM period; $IDX -0.42%

• Specs unwound USD purchases from previous week's French fiscal tumult

• Concurrently, Fed hike expectations reducing considerably aided USD weakness

• EUR$ +0.34% in period; specs +3k contracts now -134.5k; French fiscal concerns ebb

• $JPY -0.11%; specs +19.7k contracts now +69.9k; BoJ hike path seen outpacing Fed

• GBP$ +0.92%; specs +26.5k contracts now -80.4k; Fed-BoE policy divergence lifts GBP

• $CAD -1.12%; specs +20.1k contracts now -74.7k; oil rise, hawkish BoC boosts CAD

• Next weeks Fed decision, after current period close, in focus for Fed policy clues

Majors w/IMM Perf Chart:


IMM Position Table:

(Paul.Spirgel is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

The dollar found haven support on Friday as oil prices rose and equities slipped ahead of the weekend, with escalating US-Iran tensions and deteriorating consumer sentiment weighing on risk appetite.

President Donald Trump said the US could quickly end Iran war, but questioned whether to pursue a rapid resolution or let the conflict ease gradually.

Iran has prepared plans to target Gulf undersea communications cables if the US and Israel launch new attacks, Reuters reported.

In data, S&P Global's flash PMI showed US business activity cooled in October and the University of Michigan consumer sentiment index edged down to near a record low.

The WSJ reported that the US expected to lift 50% tariffs on some Canadian agriculture and forestry products to aid northern-state Republicans ahead of the midterms.

The dollar index rose above its 5-DMA in moderate FX turnover, but remained capped below the 101.89 21-DMA that has limited gains throughout the week.

EUR/USD gave up an early rally and slipped below 1.12 as higher Treasury yields and oil prices reinforced bearish momentum, with the pair remaining bearish while below the 10- and 21-DMAs.

GBP/USD slipped ahead of the UK budget and FOMC next week, but stays constructive above 1.3355 support, with resistance near its 1.3413 55-DMA and 1.3433.

USD/JPY steadied below its 156.90 lower Bollinger after rebounding from 156.08, retaining a mildly bearish bias in the middle of a 156.06-158.44 daily cloud ahead of next week's central bank meetings.

AUD/USD rose above its 100-DMA at 0.7032, supported by CNH strength despite firmer US yields and the dollar, keeping the near-term bias bullish while above 0.7005.

Treasury yields rose 3 to 4 basis points, leaving the 2s-10s curve steady at 30.9bp.

The S&P 500 slipped 0.43% amid weakness in consumer shares.

WTI oil rose about 4%, filling an outstanding price gap near $101/bbl.

Gold fell 0.75% while copper gained 1.6%.

Heading toward the close: EUR/USD -0.19%, USD/JPY +0.05%, GBP/USD -0.22%, AUD/USD +0.24%, DXY +0.19%, EUR/JPY -0.11%, GBP/JPY -0.15%, AUD/JPY +0.31%.(Editing by Burton Frierson Robert Fullem is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• NY opened near 1.1190, the pair rallied early on early NY USD selling

• USD buying them emerged however and US yields moved upward

• Gold, silver and equities moved down to reinforce the USD buying

• Significant gains in oil helped to weigh down the euro

• EUR/USD slid and sat near 1.1190 late in the day, it traded down -0.21%

• Falling RSIs and EUR/USD's hold below 10- & 21-DMAs are bearish tech signs
eurusd

(Christopher Romano is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

Goldman Sachs Research previews next week's October RBNZ meeting.

"In New Zealand, the focus will be on the October Monetary Policy Review. We expect the RBNZ to increase the Official Cash Rate by 25bp to 3.00%," GS notes.

"In terms of the decision statement itself, we expect the statement to maintain an overall hawkish bias in October, emphasising the pick-up in core inflation, elevated oil prices and a weaker currency. At the same time, we expect these remarks to be balanced out by commentary noting the unevenness in the economic recovery and a still-soft labour market...Further out, we forecast one final 25bp rate hike in December to a terminal rate of 3.25%," GS adds.

• NY opened near 0.7015 after 0.7005 traded overnight, rally extended in NY

• The pair rallied despite the USD and US yields trading up

• Drops in gold, silver, stocks and oil gains didn't deter AUD/USD bulls

• 0.7036 traded, the pair sat near 0.7030 late in the day & traded up +0.12%

• USD/CNH drop and rally in AUD/JPY helped to drive AUD/USD higher

• Techs are bullish; RSIs rising, consolidation of gains from Oct. 15 low persists

• Monthly bull hammer, 10-DMA crossing above 21-DMA add to bull signals
audusd

(Christopher Romano is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

Credit Agricole CIB Research previews next week's UK Autumn Statement.

Ahead of the Autumn statement on 28 October, we expect Chancellor John Healey to focus on measures to meet some immediate fiscal demands and boost the government’s fiscal headroom, which has been eroded recently by higher borrowing costs and weaker property market. According to our estimates, the shortfall could amount to c.GBP10bn and include outlays related to cost-of-living support, the funding shortfall in the Defence investment plan and the policy package announced by PM Andy Burnham after assuming office, among others. We believe that the funding gap could be filled with both higher taxes and some increase in net borrowing," CACIB notes.

"The Chancellor may thus delay tackling the UK’s long-term fiscal challenges to the March 2027 budget. Among these would be government outlays related to Burnham’s policy agenda as well as measures to deliver the planned real spending squeeze and boost its defence budget to 3% of GDP, announced by the previous government. These possible policy choices are estimated to cost the government more than GBP60bn by 2029-30. Given the scale of the public spending plans, gilt and GBP investors should remain wary about any further rise of state borrowing and any fiscal austerity measures needed to mitigate it," CACIB adds.

AUD/USD rose on Friday and looked set to close the week higher. That matters because risk sentiment has been weak lately, so the gain should encourage investors who are long the pair.

Riskier assets struggled this week as rising European bond yields unsettled investors. Money moved into the US dollar and US Treasuries as a flight to safety. Investors also sold equities, gold, silver and copper, and AUD/USD is correlated with the last three. Risk-off conditions like these have historically pushed the pair lower. This time, AUD/USD climbed above last week's high and the psychological 0.7000 level, gaining as much as 1.3% on the week.

The technical picture appears to be building confidence among bulls. The pair is consolidating the rally from the October 15 daily low. The 10-day moving average has crossed above the 21-day, which usually reinforces signals for a bullish trend. The daily and monthly RSIs are rising but not overbought, which suggests upward momentum remains. October's monthly candle is a bull hammer, and the monthly charts also show a bull pennant continuation pattern.

Next week's focus turns to Australia's Q3 CPI report and the Fed's policy decision. If CPI shows inflation running hot and the Fed leans less hawkish, AUD/USD bulls are likely to push higher. In that case, the pair could test the 0.7150 area and September's monthly high.
audusd

(Christopher Romano is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)