• Americans head to the polls on Tuesday

• Democrats widely predicted to win the House of Representatives

• Binance sees spike in withdrawals after hack; crypto wobbles

• Euro under pressure from Fitch's revision of France's outlook

(Updates to Asia afternoon)

By Rae Wee

SINGAPORE, Nov 2 (Reuters) - The dollar and other major currencies were in a holding pattern on Monday as investors turned their attention to this week's US midterm elections, which could shift the balance of power in Congress and control over the federal purse strings.

In cryptocurrencies, bitcoin and ether rebounded slightly following last week's record $6.3 billion heist at Binance, the world's largest crypto exchange.

Traders were bracing for a packed week dominated by the US midterm elections, October US jobs data and central bank rate decisions in Britain, Australia, Norway and Sweden.

Ahead of the week's events, the euro was nursing losses and remained not far from a 17-month low at $1.1182 in Asian trade, weighed down by Fitch's revision of France's outlook to "negative" from "stable" after Friday's close.

Sterling was little changed at $1.3394, while the dollar eased 0.15% to 101.83 against a basket of currencies.

Americans head to the polls on Tuesday to determine whether Democrats can wrest control of Congress away from US President ​Donald Trump's Republican Party. Democrats are widely predicted to win the House of Representatives, but the Senate is more in doubt.

"The challenge we face in analysing election outcomes is that polling suggests strong anti-incumbent sentiment, but that does not always translate into actual election outcomes - as we have seen in Brazil and now in Israel," said Eric Robertsen, global head of research and chief strategist at Standard Chartered.

In the event of a Democratic sweep of Congress, Robertsen said spending plans for data centres and AI infrastructure could face increasing obstacles at the state level, while the next debate on raising the US debt ceiling would be among the most contentious in recent history.

Meanwhile, Andreja Cobeljic, head of derivatives trading at AMINA Bank, said hedge funds had suffered "significant losses" in October, leaving markets with "little capacity" to absorb any surprises from the midterm elections.

In other currencies, the yen fell 0.1% to 157.73 per dollar. Japan's real interest rates have risen recently, especially in the long- and super-long zones, the central bank said on Monday in a full version of its quarterly outlook report.

The Australian dollar eased 0.15% to $0.7022 ahead of Tuesday's policy decision, where the Reserve Bank of Australia is widely expected to raise its cash rate to a near two-decade high of 4.85%.

The New Zealand dollar fell 0.26% to $0.5616, having slid 1.2% last week in the wake of its central bank's surprise decision to leave rates unchanged.

Elsewhere, bitcoin was up 0.6% at $78,262.63, having fallen to a six-week low on Friday. Ether rose 1.14% to $2,287.18, having similarly slid to a two-month trough last week.

Binance customers pulled $3.64 billion, or 2.1% of its assets, as the world's biggest crypto exchange resumed service after hackers stole $6.3 billion from the platform last week in a security breach that the FBI has blamed on North Korea.

The exchange moved to reassure crypto investors and said withdrawals were stabilising after an initial spike and deposit volumes had remained "substantial" after what analysts believe may be the world's biggest financial robbery ever.

"While the incident delivered a shock to market confidence, it has not yet triggered widespread panic or a massive, concentrated withdrawal by users," said Tim Sun, senior researcher at HashKey Group.

"On the one hand, the capital outflows likely include normal withdrawal and asset adjustment demands; on the other hand, some investors may not have transferred their funds to other exchanges, choosing instead to disperse asset risks through self-custody wallets or similar methods."

(Reporting by Rae Wee; Editing by Lincoln Feast and Jamie Freed)

• USD/JPY rallies 0.15% after early Asia dip on risk aversion fades

• Decline to 157.45 from Fri 157.64 close sees strong demand on Fed rate bets

• Steady rise to 157.98 ensues as traders brace for US mid terms on Tuesday

• Japan sees no change in US FX coordination after midterm elections-Katayama

• EUR/JPY +0.2% after falling to a 1-yr low on Fri amid Europe fiscal concerns

• Upside for pair limited on France outlook cut, Frankfurt riots and looting

• USD support 157.40-45, 157.00-05, resistance 158.00-10, 158.50-60
JPY rates

(Krishna Kumar is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

• Australian gold stocks fall as much as 3.7%, posting their biggest intraday pct drop since October 23

• Despite a slight uptick in gold prices in early Asia trade, bullion hovered near a more-than-one-year low, as persistent inflation concerns reinforced expectations that the US Federal Reserve could raise interest rates later this year [GOL/]

• Higher interest rates increase the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding bullion, reducing its appeal to investors

• Shares of Evolution Mining fall 2.3%, while Northern Star Resources down 3.8%

• YTD, gold sector is down over 9%

(Reporting by Shruti Agarwal in Bengaluru)

• NZD/USD -0.1% Mon, activity subdued despite building macro uncertainty

• NZ Q3 jobs data due Wed (prior 5.6% unemployment, +0.5% jobs growth q/q)

• Futures pricing currently implies 73.6% probability of Dec 9 RBNZ hike

• Attention turns to U.S. midterm elections with control of Congress at stake

• AI trade worries continue to build on capex concerns, Nasdaq -2.9% Fri

• Iran state media reports two tankers damaged by mines in Strait of Hormuz

• NZD fails to sustain rally above 0.5639 21-DMA, drift lower likely

• Range NZ 0.5622-29, support 0.5566 0.5485, resistance 0.5995 0.6012
NZD Daily 21/55/100-DMA

(James Connell is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

• Americans head to the polls on Tuesday

• Democrats widely predicted to win the House of Representatives

• Binance sees spike in withdrawals after hack; crypto wobbles

• Euro under pressure from Fitch's revision of France's outlook

By Rae Wee

SINGAPORE, Nov 2 (Reuters) - The dollar and other major currencies were in a holding pattern on Monday as investors turned their attention to this week's US midterm elections, which could shift the balance of power in Congress and control over the federal purse strings.

In cryptocurrencies, bitcoin and ether were nursing losses following last week's record $6.3 billion heist at Binance, the world's largest crypto exchange.

Traders were bracing for a packed week dominated by the US midterm elections, October US jobs data and central bank rate decisions in the UK, Australia, Norway and Sweden.

Ahead of the week's events, the euro languished near a 17-month low at $1.1159 in early Asian trade, weighed down by Fitch's revision of France's outlook to "negative" from "stable" after Friday's close.

Sterling was little changed at $1.3387, while the dollar steadied at 101.94 against a basket of currencies.

Americans head to the polls on Tuesday to determine whether Democrats can wrest control of Congress away from US President ​Donald Trump's Republican Party. Democrats are widely predicted to win the House of Representatives, but the Senate is more in doubt.

"The challenge we face in analysing election outcomes is that polling suggests strong anti-incumbent sentiment, but that does not always translate into actual election outcomes - as we have seen in Brazil and now in Israel," said Eric Robertsen, global head of research and chief strategist at Standard Chartered.

In the event of a Democratic sweep of Congress, Robertsen said capex plans for data centres and AI infrastructure could face increasing obstacles at the state level, while the next debate on raising the US debt ceiling would be among the most contentious in recent history.

Meanwhile, Andreja Cobeljic, head of derivatives trading at AMINA Bank, said hedge funds had suffered "significant losses" in October, leaving markets with "little capacity" to absorb any surprises from the midterm elections.

In other currencies, the yen eased 0.15% to 157.78 per dollar. The Australian dollar was flat at $0.7033 ahead of Tuesday's policy decision, where the Reserve Bank of Australia is widely expected to raise its cash rate to a near two-decade high of 4.85%.

The New Zealand dollar fell 0.11% to $0.5625, having slid 1.2% last week in the wake of its central bank's surprise decision to leave rates unchanged.

Elsewhere, bitcoin was up 0.22% at $77,975.62, having fallen to a six-week low on Friday. Ether was up 0.27% to $2,268.42, having similarly slid to a two-month trough last week.

Binance customers pulled $3.64 billion, or 2.1% of its assets, as the exchange went back online on Sunday after hackers the FBI links to North Korea stole billions from the platform last week.

Binance said withdrawals were stabilising after an initial spike and deposit volumes had remained "substantial". The exchange said it had now covered 95% of the $6.3 billion of stolen assets.

"The crypto industry has spent a decade making blockchains mathematically secure. It still runs on the assumption that an employee's laptop can be trusted," said Richard Forss, chief technology officer at global prime broker EXANTE. "That assumption is now the weakest point in digital finance."

(Reporting by Rae Wee; editing by Lincoln Feast.)

• USD/JPY remains bid after early Asia dip on risk aversion fades

• Decline to 157.45 from Fri 157.64 close sees strong demand on Fed rate bets

• Fed officials make case for rate hikes amid ongoing inflation concerns

• EUR/JPY unchanged after falling to a 1-yr low Fri on Europe fiscal concerns

• Upside for pair limited on France outlook cut, Frankfurt riots and looting

• Midterm US elections Tue, earnings, jobs data loom for AI-wary markets

• Support 157.40-45, 157.00-05, resistance 158.00-10, 158.50-60

• Asia Monday range 157.45-157.82; Japanese markets closed on Tuesday
Big Tech:

(Krishna Kumar is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

• USD/JPY eases slightly in early Asia on tech and metals selloff

• Quoted at 157.45/55 on trading platforms from NYK close of 157.64

• Wall St slumps as AI cash burn fears spark tech selloff, Intel slides

• Nasdaq posted largest one-day percentage drop since early June on Friday

• Tech rout drives gold to one-year low, white metals sink

• Midterm US elections, earnings, jobs data loom for AI-wary markets

• France outlook downgrade, Frankfurt riots likely to weigh on EUR/JPY

• Iran developments eyed as oil prices hit 6-mth high, may cap JPY upside

• USD also buoyed on Friday by Fed officials making case for rate hikes

• Friday range 157.96-157.89; Japanese markets closed on Tuesday
JPY:

(Krishna Kumar is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

• USD IMM net spec G10 long -$1.8bn to +38.6bn in Oct 21-27 reporting period; $IDX +0.56%

• Take today's data lightly, the dollar on higher oil and lower AI tech is lower in current period

• EUR$-1% in period; specs -9.4k contracts now -143.9k; French bond/fiscal tumult weighs

• $JPY -0.12%; specs +31.7k contracts now +101.6k; specs maintain JPY long on hawkish BoJ

• GBP$ -0.53%; specs +1k contracts now -79.4k; runup to UK budget kept bulls on sideline

• $CAD -0.05%; specs +8.3k contracts now -66.4k; BoC on more hawkish path than Fed

• AUD$ +0.27%; specs -1k contracts now -128.3k; despite less hawkish 2027 view, RBA has high rates

Majors w/IMM Performance Chart:


IMM Position Table:

(Paul.Spirgel is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

The euro fell against a mixed dollar at month-end Friday as risk-off sentiment fueled by AI spending concerns and higher oil prices lifted demand for haven currencies.

The Nasdaq fell to its lowest in nearly three months, while a potential escalation in the US-Iran conflict after the US midterm elections helped lift crude.

Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan said at least two more Fed hikes may be needed to curb inflation.

St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem said a key priority is ensuring elevated inflation does not spread through the broader economy, while Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin said policy remains on a clear tightening path, though the pace of hikes is uncertain.

San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly said AI is already influencing how central bankers think about policy.

The dollar index formed a doji after rebounding from its 101.59 lower Bollinger, though a turn lower in one-month risk reversals points to growing downside bias.

EUR/USD slid to 1.1137 amid risk-off dollar demand and remains bearish below its 10- and 21-DMAs and 1.1172 resistance.

GBP/USD edged higher and remains constructive near its 100-day moving average, supported by expectations of a BOE rate hike next week.

AUD/USD formed a doji above 0.7000 after a brief dip to 0.7014, maintaining a constructive tone while holding above its 10- and 21-DMAs.

USD/JPY remained mildly bearish below its 21-DMA at 157.90 heading into next week's event risks, with support at the lower Bollinger at 156.95 ahead of its cloud bottom at 156.63 and resistance at 158.44 cloud top.

Treasury yields were down 3 to 9 basis points as the curve steepened. The 2s-10s curve was up about 1 basis point to +34.7bp.

The S&P 500 fell 2.4% as weakness in tech weighed.

WTI oil rose about 2% to over $104/bbl.

Gold slumped 3.4% to a new YTD low while copper fell about 2.3%.

Heading toward the close: EUR/USD -0.09%, USD/JPY -0.25%, GBP/USD +0.15%, AUD/USD +0.03%, DXY -0.17%, EUR/JPY -0.33%, GBP/JPY -0.10%, AUD/JPY -0.19%.(Editing by Burton Frierson Robert Fullem is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• NY opened near 0.7035 after 0.7043 traded overnight, the pair fell early

• Soured risk drove USD buying & gold, silver, stocks sharply lower

• US yields softened as investors sought safer assets

• AUD/USD fell to 0.7014 but then managed to bounce off that low

• The pair hit 0.7037, sat just above 0.7030 late in the day, traded up +0.05%

• USD/CNH lift above 6.6540, firm USD helped AUD/USD move downward

• Rising RSIs, pair's hold above the 10- & 21-DMAs are bullish signals

• Monthly bull hammer and bull pennant on monthly chart add to bull signs
audusd

(Christopher Romano is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

Goldman Sachs Research addressed the potential allocation shift by Japan’s Government Pension Investment Fund (GPIF), and the likely implications for the Yen.

"The higher probability of a shift in flows relative to earlier this year, combined with a faster pace of tightening by the BoJ, means that valuation can play a bigger role in JPY performance as the policies that have justified the Yen’s undervaluation for years appear to be shifting in a more constructive direction," GS notes.

"That leaves short USD/JPY a much more attractive portfolio hedge now than it has been in recent years, especially with the likelihood of greater AI-related volatility that could push both equities and yields lower together—a market regime that typically benefits the Yen most," GS adds.

• EUR/CHF has fallen 3% since scaling a 17-month peak near 0.95 on Sept 30

• 0.9185 marks the EBS 17-week low for EUR/CHF today (Oct 30)

• French fiscal concerns have rattled the euro since Oct 1

• 10-year French-German bond yield spread hit 15-year high in October

• SNB made 11.6 billion franc profit from its foreign currency positions in Q3

• Swiss Oct inflation data due Tuesday (Nov 3); CPI forecast at 1.3%

EURCHF

(Robert Howard is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

MUFG Research reviews the October BoJ meeting,

"At today’s policy meeting the BoJ decided to leave the policy rate at 1.25% with only one dissenter. Hajime Takata voted in favour of a hike considering that that with underlying inflation having reached the price stability target, the situation had shifted to a new phase in which the Bank needs to step up the pace of policy tightening to bring the policy rate closer to the neutral rate. The main surprise in the policy statement was that the BoJ unanimously decided to sped p the pace of ETF sales. The annual pace of equity ETF sales will increase from JPY330 billion to JPY860 billion on a book-value basis from January 2027. As a share of total stock market trading value the sales will increase from 0.05% to 0.1% while the estimated period required to complete the sales of all ETF holdings will shorten from around 112 years to 43 years. It remains unclear why there was a need to suddenly increase the pace of selling," MUFG notes.

"The BoJ’s increased policy focus on the risk of an inflation overshoot was one reason why the BoJ decided to speed up the pace of rate hikes at the last policy meeting in September when they signalled that policy had entered a new phase. We expect the faster pace of tightening to continue with the BoJ delivering another quarterly hike in December," MUFG adds. 

• Shares of silver miners down, tracking prices of bullion [GOL/]

• Spot silver falls 5.3% to $49.63/ounce

• Prices plunge as rising crude oil prices and persistent inflation worries reinforced expectations of US interest rate hikes

• Hecla Mining and Coeur Mining down 5.8% and ~6%, respectively

• Canadian miners: Endeavour Silver slides 6.2% and Silvercorp Metals slips 5.7%

• Physical Silver Shares ETF and iShares Silver Trust each plunge 5.2%

(Reporting by Dharna Bafna in Bengaluru)

Credit Agricole CIB Research on USD outlook into next week's US midterm elections.

"Ahead of the US midterms on 3 November, betting odds markets predict a victory for the Democratic Party that could see it potentially gaining control over the US Congress. In a recent focus piece, we analysed the USD performance after US elections since 1976 and concluded that the FX market impact depended on whether Democrats controlled the House only, or the Senate as well. In the case of the former, the USD rebounded strongly while it sold off in the case of the latter," CACIB notes.

"Assessing the FX impact from the midterms is further complicated by two seemingly conflicting USD drivers that could play out sequentially in the coming months. In the immediate aftermath of the vote, investors will focus on any indication that the Trump administration would re-escalate the conflict in Iran and thus boost the appeal of the high-yielding, safe-haven King USD across the board. The initial USD positive impact need not last, however, if we end up with another TACO (Trump Always Chickens Out) situation," CACIB adds.

ANZ Research discusses Gold outlook and targets.

"Gold traded in a narrow range this week, briefly slipping below USD4,000/oz. The macro backdrop remains challenging amid increasing rate hike expectations, though the Fed held rates steady at its latest meeting. Geopolitics adds to the pressure. The growing likelihood of renewed US strikes on Iran after the mid-term elections raises the risk of fresh supply disruptions across the energy complex, keeping energy prices elevated and inflation expectations high," ANZ notes.

"While the long-term investment case for gold remains compelling, underpinned by strong central bank buying, reserve diversification and fiscal concerns, we see downside risk towards USD3,800/oz in the short term," ANZ adds

• AUD/USD fell below the 10-DMA in Asia, 0.7018 traded, buyers emerged

• 0.7043 hit in Europe's morning, NY opened near 0.7035, up +0.11%

• USD selling, US yield & USD/CNH drops helped limit the downside

• Drops in gold, silver, copper & equities helped cap AUD/USD's upside

• AUD/USD traded positive overnight despite soured risk sentiment

• Techs are bullish; RSIs are rising, pair is above the 10- & 21-DMAs

• Monthly bull hammer, bull pennant on monthly chart reinforce bull signals
audusd

(Christopher Romano is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• Yen gains after BOJ; AI jitters dent dollar

• USD/JPY has slipped from 157.89 to 157.12, on Friday, according to EBS data

• Spot stuck within the daily cloud that currently spans 156.63-158.44 region, 155.96 50% level supports

• BOJ keeps rate steady at 1.25%, declares victory in hitting price target, signals near-term hikes

• Japanese stocks could face more downside with BOJ accelerating ETF sales

• USD/JPY and EUR/JPY tend to move in tandem, 30 and 60-day log correlations are high above +0.5

Daily Chart


Correlation Chart

(Martin Miller is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• AUD/USD has traded a 24.5 pip range thus far Friday; 0.7018-0.70425

• Those parameters are within Thursday's 0.7015-0.7068 range

• 0.7068 was five-week high (0.6895 was 15-week low last week)

• CFTC data at 2030 GMT will show if net AUD short shrank in week to Oct 27

• Net AUD short hit all-time high of 127,292 contracts in week Oct 20

• Thirty out of 32 economists polled by Reuters expect RBA hike on Nov 3

AUDUSD

(Robert Howard is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• FX options expire at 10am New York / 14:00 GMT on Friday October 30

• EUR/USD: 1.0925 (495M), 1.0975 (600M), 1.1000-05 (477M), 1.1015 (230M), 1.1025 (596M), 1.1045-50 (200M), 1.1075-80 (1.7B), 1.1100 (1.8B), 1.1120-25 (1.1B)

• EUR/USD: 1.1150-55 (5.7B), 1.1160-65 (615M), 1.1170-75 (2.9B), 1.1200-05 (4.6B), 1.1220-25 (896M), 1.1235-40 (448M), 1.1250 (762M), 1.1275-80 (1.1B), 1.1300-05 (1.1B)

• USD/JPY: 153.00-05 (551M), 153.75 (272M), 154.00 (508M), 155.00 (2.2B), 155.40 (1.9B), 155.50 (431M), 156.00 (1.3B), 156.95-157.00 (1.6B), 157.20-25 (329M)

• USD/JPY: 157.47-50 (876M), 157.70-75 (299M), 157.80-85 (870M), 157.95-158.00 (2.2B), 158.05-10 (233M), 158.15-20 (710M), 158.30-35 (418M), 158.50 (203M), 159.30-35 (257M)

• GBP/USD: 1.3000 (241M), 1.3100 (574M), 1.3150 (499M), 1.3200-05 (492M), 1.3250 (262M), 1.3300 (726M), 1.3320-25 (224M), 1.3400 (246M), 1.3500 (533M), 1.3545-50 (238M)

• EUR/GBP: 0.8400 (270M), 0.8500 (270M), 0.8580-85 (887M). EUR/SEK: 11.2500 (384M)

• USD/CHF: 0.8205-10 (512M), 0.8325 (610M), 0.8400 (202M). EUR/CHF: 0.9250 (452M), 0.9275-80 (268M), 0.9350 (641M), 0.9365 (200M)

• AUD/USD: 0.6925 (612M), 0.7000-05 (902M), 0.7010 (275M), 0.7025-30 (1.6B), 0.7050 (463M), 0.7060 (288M), 0.7075-80 (606M), 0.7350 (299M)

• NZD/USD: 0.5550-55 (220M), 0.5620 (207M). AUD/NZD: 1.2300 (1.2B), 1.2325 (412M), 1.2400 (623M), 1.2475 (411M)

• USD/CAD: 1.3725 (201M), 1.3900 (369M), 1.3920-25 (370M), 1.3995-1.4000 (409M), 1.4025-30 (1.2B), 1.4035-40 (796M), 1.4045-50 (325M), 1.4070-75 (292M), 1.4095-1.4100 (503M)

• USD/ZAR: 15.2500 (225M), 16.0000-16.0500 (695M), 16.2000-16.2465 (225M), 16.4925-16.5000 (333M), 16.7500-16.7550 (237M)(Martin Miller is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• GBP/USD climbs to 1.3412 (one-week high) as AI jitters weigh on dollar

• Stocks sink, bonds leap as AI giants' spending spooks investors

• Prior AI jitters helped inflate cable to 1.3418 (five-week peak) last week

• 1.3383 (Thursday high) is now a support point (1.3378 was Asia low)

• Thursday low was 1.3299. Wednesday low was 1.3274 (pre-UK budget)

• Binance freezes assets after $6.3 billion heist, crypto industry's biggest

GBPUSD

(Robert Howard is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

(Adds coding for topics and RICS)

• EUR/USD rises from 1.1105 on Thursday to 1.1215 EBS on Friday

• US 10-year yield drops to 4.92%

• Spread with Germany narrows to 159bps, tightest since late Sep

• Traders were heavily short euros in advance ECB meeting

• Drop was stretched at base Bollinger bands

• Bigger rise toward 1.1248 or 1.1336 correction targets possible

•
EURUSD

(Jeremy Boulton is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• Australian silver stocks fall, while the broader mining sub-index slips 0.8%

• Spot silver prices slide alongside those of gold and platinum as higher oil prices and robust US inflation data strengthen the case for another Fed rate hike [GOL/]

• Sun Silver slips as much as 5.2% to A$0.73, their largest intraday pct fall since October 23; stock set to eke out slight 1.4% weekly gain

• Silver Mines declines as much as 4.2% to A$0.115; however, stock set to gain 9.5% for the week

(Reporting by Nikita Maria Jino in Bengaluru)

• Australian copper stocks fall on the day, adding to the broader mining sub-index's 0.8% decline

• Prices for the red metal fell from two-week highs overnight as investors remained wary of high US inventories and cautious overthe level of AI-related demand [MET/L]

• Shares of Sandfire Resources fall as much as 1.7% to A$19.92; still set for 9% weekly gain

• Australia-listed shares of Capstone Copper slip as much as 1.8% to A$11.81, though still on track for 6.5% gain on the week

• Capstone on pace to snap four straight weeks of losses

(Reporting by Nikita Maria Jino in Bengaluru)