• AUD/USD hit a 2-1/2-month low of 0.6875 in Asia on broad-based USD buying

• USD/CNH rally to 6.8094 and drop in equities also helped weigh

• The USD buying abated however & selling emerged, AUD/USD rallied off the low

• Drop in US yields , rallies in gold, silver, copper helped lift AUD/USD

• The pair neared 0.6905 into NY's open, AUD/USD traded down only -0.11%

• Daily RSI didn't confirm the low, daily bull hammer formed; worries for bears

• Falling monthly RSI, AUD/USD below 10- & 21-DMAs gives bears comfort though
audusd


(Christopher Romano is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• GBP/USD rises to 1.3226 as lower oil prices weigh on the safe-haven dollar

• 1.3226 is the highest level since Tuesday (1.3219 was Thursday high)

• Offers likely near 1.3250 (10DMA, 23.6% Fibo and June 22 high beyond)

• Cable was on 1.34 handle before Warsh-led Fed's hawkish hold last week

• Warsh taps two veteran Fed economists as advisers - WSJ

• Incoming UK PM Burnham is expected to give a speech on Monday

GBPUSD


(Robert Howard is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• USD/CAD topside momentum fading - break below 1.42 takes the heat out of the recent squeeze

• Spot holding sub-1.42 with broader USD offered, shifting focus back to downside levels

• 1.4140 now key - Nov 2025 high and confluence with 200-hour MAs

• Area shaping up as the near-term “face test” for the pullback and whether we see extension lower

• Clean break below opens room for follow-through, particularly if USD pressure persists

• That said, CAD not out of the woods - USMCA July 1 deadline keeps a layer of event risk in play

• Limited noise so far, but headline risk remains

• Any rhetoric around USMCA exit could see USD/CAD rip back through recent highs quickly
USDCAD hourly


Justin McQueen is a Reuters market analyst. (The views expressed are his own). ((Email: ))

• AUD/USD holds below 0.69 following its Asian session fall to 0.6876

• 0.6876 is the lowest level since April 2 (0.6860 was the low that day)

• Drop to 0.6876 prompted by Asian stock losses (AUD is risk-sensitive)

• Nikkei closed down 4%; Kospi closed down 5.8% (having been down 9%)

• 0.69 is a former support point. There is a big 0.6900 option expiry today

• RBA's Bullock due to speak on Sunday; Kent due to speak on Monday

AUDUSD


(Robert Howard is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• USD/JPY from 161.85 early Asia to 161.54 EBS into afternoon trading

• Pre-weekend spec long liquidation seen behind push away from 162.00

• Still plenty of offers ahead mostly to defend option barriers at strike

• Some Japanese exporter offers seen mixed in

• Threat of Japan FX intervention too if 162.00 looks to be breached

• This especially so with large stops eyed above, likely surge on break

• Hourly Ichimoku cloud between 161.55-69 providing cushion to downside

• Low limited to area of cloud base, more tech support at 161.21 200-HMA

• Option expiries today also supportive, total $2.7 bln 161.00-50

• Related , for more click on [FXBUZ]

USD/JPY hourly:

(Haruya Ida is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• Cable has traded a 23.5 pip range thus far Friday; 1.3182-1.32055

• 1.3182 is also the low water-mark since Thursday's 1.3219 high

• Ascent to 1.3219 influenced by lower chance of July Fed hike after U.S. PCE data

• 1.3152 was Thursday's low, pre-PCE data (1.3140 was 7-month low Wednesday)

• There are large 1.3200-10 option expiries for the 10am ET NY cut

• Oil prices lower even though a cargo vessel was hit near Oman on Thursday

GBPUSD


(Robert Howard is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• FX options expire at 10am New York/15:00 GMT on Friday June 26

• EUR/USD: 1.1325 (2.5BLN), 1.1330-40 (840M), 1.1350-55 (2.9BLN), 1.1370-75 (2.2BLN), 1.1385-90 (1.2BLN)

• 1.1400-10 (4.6BLN), 1.1420-25 (1.6BLN), 1.1450 (1.3BLN)

• USD/CHF: 0.8050 (180M), 0.8100 (201M). EUR/CHF: 0.9180-90 (340M), 0.9215-25 (466M)

• GBP/USD: 1.3100 (340M), 1.3200-10 (1.1BLN), 1.3245-50 (730M), 1.3300 (356M). EUR/GBP: 0.8700 (851M)

• AUD/USD: 0.6875 (517M), 0.6900 (737M), 0.6925-30 (621M), 0.6975 (361M)

• NZD/USD: 0.5625 (600M). AUD/NZD: 1.2000 (797M)

• USD/CAD: 1.4100 (270M), 1.4200 (297M)

• USD/JPY: 161.20-25 (645M), 161.50 (1.3BLN), 162.00 (352M), 162.40 (420M)

• FX options wrap - Signs of a USD top as NFP risk hits radar (Richard Pace is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• AUD/USD -0.4% Fri as commodities resume retreat in Asia

• Pair reaching for 0.6834 support, break below would accelerate slide

• Brent crude -1.7%, gold -0.7%, silver -2.7%, iron ore -0.9%

• Iraq threatening to abandon OPEC unless oil quota raised

• Fed hikes remain on the table after U.S. PCE price increase

• RBA Governor Bullock participating in Swiss panel discussion late Sun

• RBA Assistant Governor Kent speaking in Sydney early Mon

• Range Asia 0.68754-0.6914, support 0.6834 0.6660, resistance 0.7089
AUD Daily 55-DMA

(James Connell is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

• Shares of Australia's Zuleika Gold rise as much as 20% to A$0.036, their highest point since May 19

• The gold explorer says it will merge with CZR Resources

via recommended takeover offer for Zuleika

• Company says under the offer, Zuleika shareholders will receive 0.1742 CZR shares for each Zuleika share held

• Independent Zuleika board unanimously recommends shareholders accept the offer - ZAG

• Adds the deal values Zuleika at A$44.8 million ($30.81 million)

• ZAG down 28.3%, YTD

($1 = 1.4541 Australian dollars)

(Reporting by Keshav Singh Chundawat in Bengaluru)

• USD/JPY up to a fresh 161.95 EBS high overnight but no further

• Asia so far today 161.75-82, pair inching up but offers thick pre-162

• Many of offers to defend 162.00 option barriers, exporters likely in mix

• Threat of Japan FX intervention too though lack of action so far surprise

• MOF feeling effect of intervention here small in light of USD strength?

• But break above 162.00 and ensuing surge would leave USD higher still

• MOF maybe not aware of impact of option KOs, lingering after-effects

• More KOs likely up at 163.00, 164.00 and seen monster at 165.00

• Even if intervention at 165, likely downside limited to around 160.00

• Supporting likely FX action view the recent surge in JPY shorts

• Hourly Ichi kijun 161.75, likely pivot today, hourly cloud 161.55-72

• Ascending 100-HMA 161.65 and 200-HMA down at 161.17

• Option expiries today include 161.00-50 $2.7 bln, 162.00-40 $1.2 bln

• JGB-US Treasury 2-year rate differentials off some but still wide @273 bps

• Fed seen on hold in July but market increasingly eyeing September hike

• Consensus still for BOJ July hold too but many see September hike likely

• Action in Tokyo likely subdued this morning with eyed on World Cup soccer

• Related comments , , ,

• And , , , also

• US markets , , ,

• On Fed , Fed-speak ,

• On US data , US-Iran ,
USD/JPY daily:


USD/JPY hourly:

(Haruya Ida is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• NZD/USD -0.1% Fri as losing streak extends into eighth-consecutive day

• RBNZ's hawkish rhetoric lending no support to NZD whatsoever

• Futures pricing currently imply 64.4% probability of RBNZ hike Jul 8

• Strait of Hormuz evacuation paused after Iran attacks cargo ship

• U.S. PCE prices rise as anticipated, broad USD index +0.1% Fri

• RBNZ Manager Forecasting Truong speaks Fri, Anna Breman at BIS conference

• Range NZ 0.5643-525, support 5580, resistance 0.5990-95 0.6012 0.6093
NZD Daily 55-DMA


DXY Daily 55-DMA

(James Connell is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

• Australian gold miners rise as much as 2.6%, snapping a three consecutive session of losses

• Sub-index, however, has lost over 5% this week, set for its worst week since mid-May

• Bullion prices reversed course and rose overnight after a U.S. inflation reading came largely in line with expectations [GOL/]

• Gold miners Northern Star Resources , Evolution Mining up 1.9% and 2.1% respectively

• Sub-index has fallen 16.2% this year, including the session's moves
(Reporting by Roshan Thomas in Bengaluru)

ANZ Research discusses its latest macro forecasts for the Australian economy.

"The Australian economy will slow over 2026 and into 2027 under the combined influence of higher interest rates, a housing market slowdown and uncertainty associated with the Middle East conflict. The slowdown in growth that we expect over 2026 and into 2027 should give the RBA comfort that inflation will ultimately ease back toward target. The most recent monthly inflation data point to Q2 2026 trimmed mean inflation at 3.7% y/y, a little below the RBA's May forecast of 3.8% y/y. That and the softening in consumer spending over recent months and the drift higher in the unemployment rate are giving us more comfort that the current 4.35% will mark the peak in the cash rate," ANZ notes.

"Inflation remains a risk though, and further tightening in monetary policy is possible if price pressures prove more persistent than expected. The more likely outcome is that the soft outlook for demand, pressure on businesses' margins and a resolution to the Middle East conflict will keep the RBA on hold in 2026 before a very modest easing cycle over the second half of 2027," ANZ adds.

(Corrects headline word order)

• AUD/USD +0.15% late Thur as commodities get slight short-term relief

• Strait of Hormuz evacuation paused after Iran fires on cargo ship

• Brent crude +1.7% post-attack as confidence in normalization effort wobbles

• U.S. PCE prices elevated, but largely in line with expectations, DXY -0.2%

• AUD drift toward 0.6834 support likely unless RBA dials up hawkish rhetoric

• RBA Governor Bullock participating in Swiss panel discussion late Sun

• RBA Assistant Governor Kent speaking in Sydney early Mon

• Overnight range 0.68871-0.6927, support 0.6834 0.6660, resistance 0.7089
US Inflation Gauges


AUD Daily 55-DMA


(James Connell is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

The dollar index eased from overbought levels as in-line U.S. data, quarter-end flows, and weakness in tech stocks weighed on Treasury yields. U.S. PCE inflation rose at a 4.1% annualized pace in May, its fastest in three years but broadly in line with expectations. Jobless claims held steady while price hikes from Apple and Microsoft added to inflation concerns. Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee said inflation is moving the wrong way, though the latest PCE report wasn’t entirely negative, with inflation clearly the main concern in the Fed’s mandate. Oil rose after a cargo vessel was hit by an unknown projectile near Oman, raising concerns over the pace of Middle East supply normalization. IMF said energy and commodity prices have fallen since the U.S.-Iran deal, though normalization in prices and Gulf trade will take time. Conflicting stances on Israeli troop withdrawals from Lebanon suggest a deal is not imminent. Iran’s top negotiator denied U.S. claims it would use unfrozen assets to buy U.S. agricultural goods. Iran estimates Strait service fees could generate about $40 billion annually for participating states, WSJ reported. EUR/USD rebounded from an oversold position above 1.13 on softer U.S. yields and a weaker dollar post-PCE, with a rising RSI and move back above its lower Bollinger supporting a constructive near-term bias. GBP/USD firmed on softer U.S. yields as hawkish Fed expectations eased, though gains were capped by equity weakness in tech and Iran-related tensions. USD/JPY held firm, printing a doji below the key 161.96 2024 high and 162 barriers, with a series of higher daily lows supporting the pair ahead of Friday’s Tokyo CPI data. AUD/USD edged up on softer U.S. yields, stronger CNH and firmer commodities, with a supportive daily RSI offset by a sub-moving average position and a weak monthly RSI limiting upside.

Treasury yields eased about 1 basis point, paring a steeper drop after the PCE data, with the 2s/10s curve rising slightly to 26.9bp

The S&P 500 was down 0.03% in choppy trade.

WTI crude oil rose 2.53%.

Gold rose 0.83% while copper was up 2.26%.

Heading toward the close: EUR/USD +0.18%, USD/JPY -0.02%, GBP/USD +0.25%, AUD/USD +0.20%, DXY -0.22%, EUR/JPY +0.14%, GBP/JPY +0.25%, AUD/JPY +0.20%.(Robert Fullem)

(Corrects USD/CNH level to 6.7971)

• NY opened near 0.6895 after 0.6908 traded overnight, the pair hit 0.6889 early

• Buyers emerged however after the US May core & headline PCE reports

• US yields & USD dropped sharply after the data

• Gold & silver turned positive and USD/CNH traded down to 6.7971

• AUD/USD rallied to 0.6927 then dipped, it sat near 0.6920 late, was up +0.24%

• Rising daily RSI gives bulls comfort but falling monthly RSI is a concern

• AUD/USD's hold below the 10- & 21-DMAs are also worries for AUD/USD bulls
audusd


(Christopher Romano is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

JP Morgan looks to sell EUR/USD on rallies above 1.14.

"We maintain current stance, given we resided forever at 1.16 this move feels enough in the short term with some factors which should provide some support (oil down here, ECB hawkishness less urgent, US yields moved enough into July data)," JPM notes.

"Whether we can bounce much is more up for debate as the market will have to consider a Fed hike conversation in July if the numbers corroborate the hawkish dot plot so trading strategy is to look to sell into any mini positioning squeeze back above 1.14 if we see it," JPM adds.

• Ether hit 1658.16 earlier in the session and also traded 1531.65 earlier

• It traded down -2.38% after Europe's close despite upbeat risk sentiment

• Lower USD and US yields were unable to inspire Ether bulls

• Rallies in gold, silver, equities & a drop in USD/CNH didn't help bulls either

• Ether traded to a 19-session low and technicals still highlight downside risks

• Daily, monthly RSIs indicate downward momentum, Ether is below the 10-DMA

• June 6 daily low is support, if it breaks the 2025 yearly low comes into focus
eth


(Christopher Romano is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

Citi Research discusses the scope for another wave of JPY intervention by Japan's MoF 

"We look at the reasons the government has so far deferred a second round of intervention to buy the JPY from the perspectives of 1) the IMF Exchange Rate Classification, 2) Japan's relationship with the US, 3) the economic policies of the Takaichi government, and 4) the overall market environment," Citi notes.

"We continue to see ¥160/$-¥162/$ as the range in which further intervention is likely, with the government likely to aim to push the USDJPY down to ¥155/$-¥157/$. However, in order to maximize the medium-term effectiveness of intervention we believe the rate needs to fall to below ¥155/$ and absorb long-term USD-buy hedging demand at small and medium size enterprises (SMEs) more completely," Citi adds.

EUR/USD traded close to flat on Thursday, with technicals continuing to signal downside risks. However, long-positioned investors found some relief in the latest U.S. inflation data. May PCE figures — both core and headline on a year-over-year basis — met estimates, while the month-on-month headline reading came in softer than expected. This was enough to shift sentiment in rates markets.

U.S. Treasury yields reversed earlier gains and moved lower on the session, with the 2-year yield hitting a 5-session low and erasing nearly 75% of the rally that followed Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's press conference the prior week. March 2027 SOFR

futures, a proxy for the Fed's terminal rate, extended their rally away from structural support, reflecting reduced expectations for further Fed rate hikes. Meanwhile, U.S.-German 2-year yield spreads tightened, narrowing the dollar's yield advantage over the euro.

Adding to the tentatively positive backdrop for EUR/USD, gold and silver both turned positive following the PCE release — a signal that U.S. interest rates and the dollar may be poised to soften.

That said, bulls will need additional catalysts to reverse the pair's broader downtrend. Attention now turns to U.S. June CPI and PPI, due July 14 and 15 respectively, ahead of the Fed's July 28-29 meeting. Cooler-than-expected inflation in those reports could weigh on the dollar and U.S. rates, potentially driving EUR/USD higher.
sofr


deus


eurusd


(Christopher Romano is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

Credit Agricole CIB Research highlights the prelim reading from its month-end fixing model.

"Global equity markets were broadly firmer in June. In FX, the USD has outperformed across the board on the month," CACIB notes.

"Overall, the moves in equity markets, when adjusted for market capitalisation and FX performance this month, suggest month-end portfolio-rebalancing flows are likely to be mild USD buying across the board with the strongest buy signal in the case of the USD vs the SEK," CACIB adds.

Bank of America Global Research extends its USD bullish bias into Q3.

"We extend our bullish USD view and forecasts into 3Q '26. Having recommended selling EUR/USD in May, we expect a breakout from the long-held range to extend to 1.12 in 3Q '26. Our constructive USD view was predicated on the yawning gap between US growth outperformance and rate differentials in early 2Q. This has narrowed, supporting USD, but there is likely further to run, especially under our base case of three Fed rate hikes this year," BofA notes.

"Our rates team forecast ~30bp widening of the EUR-USD 2y differential by 3Q '26, which based on historical betas would imply ~1.2% lower EUR/USD, consistent with our new forecast but recognising downside risks as FX is prone to overshoot. We stay short EUR/USD via put spreads," BofA adds.

• AUD/USD traded 0.6908-0.6887 ovenright, NY opened near 0.6890, down -0.14%

• USD buying, US yield gains helped to weigh down the pair

• Drops in gold and silver added bearish pressur eon AUD/USD

• Equity rally, USD/CNH drop may have helped limit AUD/USD's drop

• Techs lean bearish; RSIs indicate downward momentum, pair is below 10- & 21-DMAs

• US May headline & core PCE a key risk today, estimates are for increase from April
audusd


(Christopher Romano is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• FX options thrive on FX volatility and rapid price movements in either direction and are priced according to that risk

• However, USD/JPY FX option traders face the dilemma of elevated FX break-out risks in a very low realised volatility environment

• USD/JPY is trading tight intraday ranges near multi decade highs ahead of 162.00 over recent sessions

• There's not enough realised volatility to support implied volatility - the 1-month expiry already back at 7.25 from 8.0 this week

• But a break above huge 162.00 option barriers could fuel another USD/JPY surge higher with increased volatility

• A 162.00 break could also be the catalyst for the next bout of official intervention and a rapid USD/JPY reversal

• Butterfly spreads remain a favoured option in this environment - they would benefit from a spot break-out in either direction

• No surprise to see sub 1-month 10 delta butterfly spread still trading near to recent and multi-year highs

• Related comment - FX options ignore US PCE in favour of June NFP data
USD/JPY 10 delta butterfly spreads


Benchmark 1-month expiry FXO implied volatility


(Richard Pace is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)