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Sep 02 - 12:55 PM

Morgan Stanley: What We Expect from the US August Payrolls on Friday

By eFXdata  —  Sep 02 - 12:00 PM

Morgan Stanley Research previews the US August jobs report due on Friday.

"We had expected payrolls to decelerate from their March-May pace, but not quite as much as they did: July slowed sharply, exaggerated by local education payrolls, and earlier months were revised softer. We expect August payrolls reaccelerate slightly, with private payrolls rising 40k and headline payrolls up 65k, including a temporary rebound in those education payrolls," MS notes.

"We are assuming a 15k drag on payrolls from the revocation of Temporary Protected Status (TPS) for unauthorized Haitian mmigrants, which cancelled their work authorizations. The TPS-affected Haitians account for an estimated 160k of payrolls. Our forecast assumes about 10% lost employment by the time of the August payroll survey," MS adds.

Source:
Morgan Stanley Research/Market Commentary

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