Goldman Sachs likes buying AUD/USD on dips in the near-term.

"In the context of fiscal concerns, AUD and NOK should find support, but there's a pivot point were this feeds through to lower equities and traditional risk-off," GS notes.

"Alphabet issuance (5.5bn of AUD denominated bonds today) will perhaps prove a slight drag on AUDUSD as some proceeds are converted back into we have seen these patterns before on hyperscaler issuance, and it presents a buying opportunity - between 0.7070 and 0.7040 short term," GS adds.

Bank of America Global Research previews today's FOMC minutes from the July meeting.

"The July FOMC minutes will be stale because the soft July jobs and inflation data since the Fed meeting have considerably reduced market pricing of hikes.

Still, we will be looking to get a sense of how many FOMC participants (besides the three dissenters) wanted a hike or would at least have been willing to go along with one," BofA notes.

"We're also curious about the committee's thresholds for a September move, though we wouldn't expect anything too specific on this front," BofA adds.

• Cable has traded a 40.5 pip range thus far Wednesday; 1.3525-1.35655

• The peak of that range is 5.5 pips shy of Monday's three-month high

• Minutes from July's Fed meeting will be published at 1800 GMT

• Eighty of 104 economists polled by Reuters expect Fed holds through year-end

• UK CPI rose to 2.9% in July, as expected, from 2.6% in June

• Pound can bank on another 6-3 rate hold vote in September

GBPUSD


(Robert Howard is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• USD/JPY option gamma bid up and topside strike demand increased as spot tested 160.00 barriers/triggers Monday

• Subsequent spot setback toward 159.00 drained any excitement and volatility measures are back under pressure

• 1-week daily realised volatility has collapsed to 1.32 - the lowest in G10 FX to evidence the recent lack of spot activity

• With minimal daily FX movement, there's no fuel left to keep short-dated implied volatility elevated

• 1-month implied vol back around 7.0 after its late July intervention led spike from 4-year lows at 6.0 to 10.0

• 1-month daily realised vol still includes the intervention spot drop, but will revert lower when it rolls out the equation

• Related comment - Why FX options continue to snooze
1-week and 1-month expiry USD/JPY FXO implied volatility


Implied vs realised vol


(Richard Pace is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• USD/JPY has pulled away from the closely-watched 160 level

• Spot has dropped from 159.64 to 159.06, on Wednesday, on the EBS data

• USD/JPY upside has recently been limited by Japanese exporter sales

• A break and daily close below the cloud base, that is currently at 158.92, would be bearish

• USD/JPY and EUR/JPY usually struggles in August

• Investors set sights on Swiss franc for popular carry trades after yen intervention

Daily Chart


(Martin Miller is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• AUD/USD falls to 0.7067 as Asian stock losses weigh on risk-sensitive AUD

• Kospi down 5.8%, Nikkei down 3.16%; steepest drops for three weeks

• 0.7067 is the lowest level this week (0.7129 was Monday's 10-week high)

• Minutes from July's Fed meeting will be published at 1800 GMT

• RBA's Hauser warns of higher rates if inflation risks crystallise

• Australian July jobs data due at 0130 GMT; employment forecast up 15k

AUDUSD


(Robert Howard is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• Cable hugs 1.3550 option expiry after UK July CPI matches 2.9% forecast

• Match underpins expectation for another BoE interest rate hold in September

• Nearly 90% of economists polled by Reuters expect further BoE holds in Q4

• 1.3571 was three-month high for GBP/USD Monday; 1.35195 = subsequent low

• Minutes from July's Fed meeting will be published at 1800 GMT

• UK PM Burnham says Healey to outline economic strategy in September speech

GBPUSD


(Robert Howard is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• Most recent uptrend in EUR/CHF from 0.9178 on July 2 running out of steam?

• Cross in stasis of sort after peaking out at 0.9409 on Friday

• EUR/CHF still relatively bid, but carry demand looks to be flagging

• On heavy side in Asia today, off modestly from 0.9405 to 0.9396

• Heaviness above 0.9400 likely to remain barring fresh carry flows

• Some player still hold out for more upside but questionable

• Granted, more upside not ruled out but trade may have already peaked

• Key will be whether EUR/CHF can break below its 0.9388-89 hourly Ichi cloud

• Cloud looks to continue to ascend alongside 100-HMA currently at 0.9388

• Breaks below bearish and project test towards ascending 200-HMA at 0.9368
EUR/CHF hourly:

(Haruya Ida is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• USD/JPY has fallen into its 159.17-41 hourly Ichimoku cloud

• Move down modest at most however, not necessarily start of trend

• That said, USD/JPY upside recently more limited on Japanese exporter sales

• These sales seen likely to continue in Japan's FY half end in September

• Sales beyond too as exporters move to realize FY budget assumptions?

• Key support below cloud at 159.23 ascending 200-HMA

• Daily Ichimoku cloud base too at 158.92 and 200-DMA at 158.29

• $1 bln in option expiries today between 159.00-25 also seen supportive

• Related comments , , also
USD/JPY hourly:

(Haruya Ida is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• AUD/USD improves slightly on hawkish RBA dialogue, but remains -0.15% Wed

• RBA Deputy Governor Hauser says upside inflation risks may trigger OCR hike

• Markets unconvinced RBA will be able to hike as economic headwinds build

• Strait of Hormuz access remains restricted despite Trump claiming otherwise

• Oil supply concerns continue to re-escalate, Brent crude +0.7% to $91.67

• AU Jul jobs update Thur, Reuters poll consensus +15k jobs, 4.4% unemployment

• Range Asia 0.7069-885 support 0.6920 0.6866 0.6834, resistance 0.7130 0.7200
AUD Daily 55-DMA

(James Connell is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

• USD/CAD -0.1% in Asia after Trump pauses tariffs against Canada for 3 days

• Says Canada and U.S. have a deal subject to finalisation of documents

• CAD likely to test 1.3845 Mon high which was its highest in more than 2 mths

• Higher oil prices, waning Sep Fed rate hike expectations underpin CAD

• Break extends to 1.3815-20, followed by 1.3770, the May 29 low

• Resistance 1.3905-10,1.3955-60; Tue range 1.3862-1.3910, Asia 1.3872-1.3907
CAD:

(Krishna Kumar is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

• AUD/USD -0.2% Wed as oil supply concerns continue to re-escalate

• AU Q2 wage price index +0.8% q/q, +3.2% y/y (poll +0.8%, +3.2% respectively)

• RBA Deputy Governor Andrew Hauser fireside chat in Brisbane later Wed

• Strait of Hormuz access still restricted despite Trump's antithetical claims

• AUD in mean-reversion mode, slide toward 0.7034 21-DMA increasingly likely

• AU Jul jobs update Thur, Reuters poll consensus +15k jobs, 4.4% unemployment

• Range Asia 0.7069-885 support 0.6920 0.6866 0.6834, resistance 0.7130 0.7200
AUD Daily 21/100/200-DMA

(James Connell is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

• USD remained better bid yesterday, USD/JPY held on 159 despite greater sales

• USD/JPY to 159.78 high yesterday, Asia so far today 159.49-64 EBS

• Daily Ichimoku kijun at 159.59 pierced but spot still in area

• 100-DMA 160.01 above, still technical resistance, Ichi cloud 158.92-161.38

• Japanese exporters no doubt looking to sell ahead of 160.00

• Highest budget assumptions for 160 this fiscal year, must sell there/above

• Many large companies already have sales 160+, OK for FY first half Sept-end

• Threat of Japan FX intervention back above 160 cannot be ignored either

• With a BOJ hike eyed in September, maybe again in December, upside limited?

• JGB-US Treasury rate differentials may have based for now but still heavy

• In 2s differential to @246 bps Monday, yesterday @250 bps, 10s @179 bps

• Tech support from 100-HMA at 159.37, hourly Ichimoku cloud 159.10-33 below

• Option expiries today also likely supportive, $1 bln between 159.00-25

• Related comments , , ,

• And , , also

• US markets , , ,

• On US data/economy , , US-Iran
USD/JPY daily:


USD/JPY hourly:


JGB-US Treasury 2-year interest rate differential:

(Haruya Ida is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• NZD/USD -0.6% from Tue 0.59075 high as buyers take a step back

• Pair in mean-reversion mode, drift toward 0.5854 21-DMA looks likely

• NZ Q2 PPI: inputs +2.9% q/q, outputs +1.6% q/q (prior +1.4% & +0.8%)

• Strait of Hormuz shipping remains restricted despite contrary U.S. claims

• Brent crude +2.8% wtd as supply concerns re-escalate, last $91.02 a barrel

• U.S. 30-year yields trade to high near 5.32% Tue, highest level since 2007

• NZ Jul balance of trade update, and Aug S&P manufacturing PMI due Fri

• Range NZ 0.5871-746, support 0.5831 0.5762, resistance 0.5925-30 0.5995
NZD Daily 21/100/200-DMA

(James Connell is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

• AUD/USD -0.5% from Tue 0.71195 high as non-energy commodities trade softer

• AUD pushing lower hourly Bollinger band, downwards momentum likely to slow

• RBA Deputy Governor Andrew Hauser fireside chat in Brisbane Wed

• U.S. 30-year yields traded 5.32% earlier Tue, highest level since 2007

• Strait of Hormuz shipping remains heavily constrained despite U.S. claims

• AU Q2 wage price index due Wed, Reuters poll consensus +0.8% q/q, +3.2% y/y

• AU Jul jobs update Thur, Reuters poll consensus +15k jobs, 4.4% unemployment

• Overnight range 0.70826-0.71195 support 0.6920, resistance 0.7130 0.7200
AUD Daily 55-DMA


AUD Hourly Bollinger Study

(James Connell is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

Danske Research discuss the drivers and implications of the recent sharp decline in US labour force participation rate.

"The decline cannot be explained by any single driver alone, but we evaluate three possible explanations that could be in play simultaneously, 1) decline in net immigration, 2) loss of entry-level job opportunities and 3) early retirements. A sudden loss of labour supply that goes beyond the expected extent of the immigration slowdown is both a downside risk to real growth and an upside risk to inflation," Danske notes.

"We think the Fed will remain on hold in its upcoming September meeting, but eventually hike rates in December and March," Danske adds.

• NY opened near 1.1575 after EUR/USD traded a tight range in Asia & Europe

• The pair rallied early as the USD traded downward; 1.1589 traded

• Sellers then emerged as risk soured after Pres. Trump comments on negotiations

• Stocks turned lower, gold & silver added to losses, USD/CNH neared the overnight high

• EUR/USD hit 1.1575 in NY's afternoon, it traded down -0.05% late in the day

• Daily RSI, price drop following Monday's inverted hammer are concerns for bulls
eurusd


(Christopher Romano is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• Workspace search string for individual stock moves: [STXBZ]

• The Day Ahead newsletter: Click here

• The Morning News Call newsletter: Click here

August 18 (Reuters) - Wall Street's main indexes hit their lowest in two weeks on Tuesday, pressured by losses in heavyweight technology stocks, while fading hopes for a U.S.-Iran peace deal sustained gains in oil prices and kept government bond yields at multi-year peaks.[.N] At 13:30 EDT, the Dow Jones Industrial Average was down 0.17% at 53,367.72. The S&P 500 was down 0.55% at 7,702.65, and the Nasdaq Composite was down 1.14% at 26,341.41.

The top three S&P 500 percentage gainers:

• Targa Resources Corp. , up 7.6%

• Ulta Beauty Inc , up 5.6%

• Intuit Inc. , up 5.5%

The top three S&P 500 percentage losers:

• Coherent Corp. , down 11.8%

• Ciena Corporation , down 10.4%

• Teradyne, Inc. , down 10.2%

The top three NYSE percentage gainers:

• Weave Communications, Inc. , up 31.7%

• Haemonetics Corp , up 17.0%

• UGI Corporation , up 11.8%

The top three NYSE percentage losers:

• Klarna Group PLC , down 21.1%

• Fabrinet , down 20.7%

• Vishay Precision Group, Inc. , down 12.2%

The top three Nasdaq percentage gainers:

• Profusa Inc , up 166.9%

• IP Strategy Holdings Inc , up 150.1%

• Aixcrypto Holdings Inc , up 126.7%

The top three Nasdaq percentage losers:

• Lucas GC Ltd , down 82.1%

• Ucloudlink Group Inc , down 35.3%

• Zenta Group Co Ltd , down 34.9%

• EyePoint Inc : BUZZ - Falls after experimental drug misses goal, brokerages cut ratings

• DocGo Inc : BUZZ - Slips on tepid quarterly results, narrower annual outlook

• Baidu Inc : BUZZ - Fall after downbeat Q2 revenue

• Corebridge Financial Inc :

• Equitable Holdings Inc :

• Brighthouse Financial Inc :

• Lincoln National Corp : BUZZ - Life insurance stock weakness after Mark Walter headlines overdone, Evercore says

• Dynatrace Inc : BUZZ - Up after $1.25 bln convertible offering prices

• Duolingo Inc : BUZZ - Gains after D.A. Davidson upgrades rating, hikes price target

• Amylyx Pharmaceuticals Inc : BUZZ - Soars as blood sugar drug succeeds in late-stage trial

• Einride AB : BUZZ - Gains on upbeat forecast, Tesla partnership

• Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd : BUZZ - Falls as Mizuho downgrades stock to 'neutral'

• Amer Sports Inc : BUZZ - Up after raising annual forecasts

• Prenetics Global Ltd : BUZZ - Rises on Q2 revenue jump

• Pliant Therapeutics Inc : BUZZ - Rises after FDA grants fast-track tag to experimental cancer drug

• Klarna Group PLC : BUZZ - Drops after trimming revenue and volume outlook

• BioMarin Pharmaceutical Inc : BUZZ - Up after agreeing to buy drug developer in deal worth up to $490 million

• Home Depot Inc : BUZZ - Rises on quarterly sales beat

• Weave Communications Inc : BUZZ - Jumps on Francisco Partners' takeover deal

• Barrick Mining Corp :

• Newmont Corp :

• Gold Fields Ltd :

• Harmony Gold Mining Company Ltd : BUZZ - Gold miners fall as bond yields surge to highest levels in decades

Index RIC Index name Percent

change %

S&P 500 -0.55

S&P 500 Information -1.9

Technology

S&P 500 Utilities 0.46

S&P 500 Consumer 0.11

Discretionary

S&P 500 Materials -0.6

S&P 500 Industrials -1.23

S&P 500 Communication -0.42

Services (Sector)

S&P 500 Financials 0.48

S&P 500 Real Estate 0.2

S&P 500 Health Care 1.61

S&P 500 Consumer Staples 1.31

S&P 500 Energy 1.52

(Compiled by Rajarshi Roy and Varun Sahay)

• NY opened near 0.7105 after 0.7096 traded in Europe's morning

• The pair rallied early as the USD traded softly; 0.7120 traded

• Sellers emerged however as risk soured; gold, silver, copper, stocks fell

• USD/CNH rallied toward the overnight high to reinforce risk-off trading

• AUD/USD fell below the overnight low, hit 0.7088 in NY's afternoon

• The pair traded down -0.22% late in the day and near Monday's low

• Falling daily RSI, daily inverted hammer could be concerns for AUD/USD bulls

• Rising monthly RSI, 20-month Bolli bands & monthly bull hammer comfort bulls
audusd


(Christopher Romano is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

Morgan Stanley Research previews the FOMC minutes from the July meeting due on Wednesday.

"The Fed minutes should provide additional insight into how divided the Committee was at the July meeting. We will also be looking for clues on just how data dependent the Committee is and particularly how much weight participants placed on the softer June inflation and employment reports when deciding to keep rates unchanged," MS notes.

"In addition, we will be watching for any shift in the Committee's assessment of inflation risks, and any commentary around Chairman Warsh considering reducing the number of FOMC meetings per year, as was reported by news outlets after the meeting. Finally, the minutes may shed light on the Fed's reaction function," MS adds.

• Shares of gold miners down, tracking lower bullion prices[GOL/]

• Spot gold down 1% at $4,369.82/ounce as Treasury yields surged to their highest levels in decades, with rising energy prices on escalating U.S.-Iran tensions stoking inflation worries and weighing on non-interest-bearing bullion

• "The steepening of the yield curve poses a headwind for gold, while firmer oil prices are also a factor behind today's weakness," said Peter Grant, vice president and senior metals strategist at Zaner Metals

• Top miner Barrick Mining and Newmont down 1.1% and 2.8%, respectively

• South African miners Gold Fields falls ~1%, AngloGold Ashanti falls 1.15% and Harmony Gold falls 2.8%

• Canadian miners Agnico Eagle Mines slips 0.6% and Kinross Gold down 1.8%

(Reporting by Varun Sahay in Bengaluru)

Bank of America Global Research sees NZ as best placed to withstand severe El Niño shocks to global food supply chains given its large agricultural output.

"BofA Research and the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) have flagged the mounting risks to global food supply chains posed by a major El Niño weather event (NOAA highest probability: Oct-Dec '26) and Hormuz-driven shortages in fertilizer inputs (nitrogen and sulfur)," BofA notes.

 "A sustained global food supply shock is likely to be a positive terms-of-trade shock for New Zealand (NZ) given its outsized dependence on agricultural exports. We remain short AUD/NZD and forecast a sustained rally in NZD/USD from Q4," BofA adds.

Japan may soon face another credibility test as rising global yields, driven by geopolitical risks, corporate bond supply and inflation concerns, pressure a low-yielding yen.

USD/JPY's break above 159.60, the 50% retracement of its post-intervention decline, puts the 160 psychological level and the nearby 100-DMA in focus. A move beyond there would target the falling 21-DMA at 160.33.

However, momentum remains limited, with exporters selling into rallies toward 160 and U.S. growth concerns tempering dollar enthusiasm. CitiFX's U.S. Economic Surprise Index is near a three-month low and diverging from its counterpart measuring the global economy.

Subdued volatility and light speculative positioning suggest Tuesday's rise is not decisive, leaving scope for a retreat below 159 to ease bullish pressure.

But if USD/JPY holds above 160 for a period of time and eventually clears the 61.8% retracement of the 163.99-155.20 decline, the post-intervention bearish narrative may shift, especially if official pushback remains absent or concerns emerge about BOJ hawkishness.

A cautious BOJ hike in September, either due to geopolitics or a slowing economy, could steepen the JGB curve, weighing further on the yen and challenging a history of successful interventions. Against that backdrop, EUR/JPY is attracting interest as a way to play rising yields while reducing exposure to dollar-specific risks, particularly as European data continue to outperform expectations.
Economic surprise


Yen


(Robert Fullem is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

Goldman Sachs Research on the latest wave of yen-buying intervention.

"Last week's cooler inflation news seems to forecast another heat wave in this summer of carry; low volatility and dispersed levels of rates are an undeniable recipe for carry to dictate total returns. This backdrop also dampens the likelihood of success for Japan's currency intervention, which has been the central focus point for currency markets over the last few weeks," GS notes.

"We argued there was a tension between market pricing for imminent BoJ hikes and a stable Yen. So far, that tension is being resolved on the FX side, with markets quickly resetting despite officials' powerful action. We think that is largely due to this unfriendly backdrop for a low-yielding, rates-sensitive, safe-haven currency like the Yen, in contrast to more effective interventions like in 2024 that coincided with a turn in macro conditions," GS adds.