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May 25 - 02:36 PM

GBP/USD - COMMENT-Sterling Should Probably Be Lower

By Peter Stoneham  —  May 25 - 04:40 AM

Mired in negative news, sterling should probably be heading lower, faster.
However, there are signs of resilience and even out-performance versus the EUR.
Coronairus-impacted UK retail sales data Friday wasn't a surprise, and most economic releases are being taken in the market's stride.
Sales fell by a record 18% in April; the weak data backdrop, record-breaking government borrowing in April nL8N2D4140, a Brexit standoff, intensifying debate on negative Bank of England interest rates nL8N2D255F and dollar strength nL8N2D41I8 are all conspiring against the pound at the start of the week.
The fact that sterling is not rolling over fires a warning to bears, and the technical picture also hints at the potential for a short-squeeze.
Price is contained by only a thin Ichimoku cloud, and the cloud has a June 4 twist above market at 1.2307-1.2330, which could attract nL1N2D7092.
However, any GBP/USD rebounds are likely to attract fresh selling, with better entry levels being exploited as the May bear trend holds.

GBP/USD daily Ichimoku chart: Click here

Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary


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