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Jan 13 - 02:55 PM

Morgan Stanley: What We Expect form the UK December CPI Report on Wednesday

By eFXdata  —  Jan 13 - 01:00 PM

Synopsis:

Morgan Stanley expects UK headline inflation to decline slightly to 2.5% year-on-year (YoY) in December, driven by easing core inflation, while fuel prices provide a partial offset.

Key Points:

  1. Headline Inflation:

    • Forecasted to decrease to 2.5% YoY in December, down from 2.6% YoY in November.
  2. Core Inflation:

    • Expected to fall to 3.3% YoY, compared to 3.5% YoY in the prior month.
  3. Fuel Prices Impact:

    • Fuel prices are projected to contribute positively, but this is not sufficient to offset the decline in core inflation.

Conclusion:

The slight moderation in headline inflation reflects a broader trend of easing price pressures, primarily in core components, as the UK economy navigates through persistent economic challenges.

Source:
Morgan Stanley Research/Market Commentary

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