• AUD/USD +0.1% Wed, oil prices surging as U.S.-Iran war broadens & escalates

• Futures pricing now implies 72.9% probability RBA will hike 25 bps in Sep

• RBA's Hauser says board will debate Sep hike amidst inflation concern

• Focus will shift to U.S. Aug PPI due Thur, and CPI Fri (poll +0.4% m/m)

• AUD targets 0.72825 50-month high, break above will boost topside potential

• Range Asia 0.7218-26 support 0.7122 0.6920, resistance 0.7277-82 0.7661
AUD Daily 21/100/200-DMA

(James Connell is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

• Australian gold stocks fall as much as 2.6%, their biggest intraday pct loss since September 2

• Bullion prices fell on Tuesday amid rising inflation concerns and expectations of a rate hike by U.S. Federal Reserve this month [GOL/]

• Major producers Evolution Mining and Northern Star Resources trade ex-dividend; stock down 3.7% and 3.1%, respectively

• Shares of Westgold Resources fall over 6%, becoming one of worst performers in the benchmark index

• Sub-index up ~1.4% YTD, including the session's moves

(Reporting by Anjali Singh in Bengaluru)

• USD/JPY seeing only dead-cat bounces in recent downturn, bias still down

• Some bounce yesterday to from 152.89 low to 154.43 but off again since

• Asia so far 153.93 to 153.36 EBS, Japanese exporter sales again tipped

• Other players may have joined too with market still seen net long

• Talk by some players near-term specs trading from short side, net short

• That said, USD shorts recently profitable, no need to change sell-rally tack

• Good resistance at descending hourly Ichimoku cloud, now 154.63-155.27

• Bounce yesterday well short of this cloud, tenkan now 153.86, kijun 153.66

• USD/JPY seeing no large nearby option expiries today, only 154.20 $450 mln

• JGB-US Treasury 2-yr rate differentials narrow @253 bps, 10s wider @190 bps

• Seems yen now less attentive to Middle East news, crude oil price moves

• Japan Inc still dependent on Middle East oil but plenty near-term reserves

• Related comments , , ,

• And , ,

• US markets , , ,

• On Middle East , for more click on [FXBUZ]

USD/JPY daily:


USD/JPY hourly:

(Haruya Ida is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• NZD/USD -0.5% from Tue 0.58835 high; Iran-backed Houthis attack Saudi cities

• Brent crude +2.5% to $99.39 a barrel as U.S.-Iran hostilities continue

• RBNZ Assistant Governor Silk speaks Wed, followed by Governor Breman on Thur

• AUD/NZD hits 13-year 1.2352 high on RBA hike anticipation, weighs on NZD

• NZD targeting 0.5762 support, may encounter some buyers near 0.5831 55-DMA

• Aug U.S. inflation data looms large, PPI due Wed followed by CPI on Thur

• Range NZ 0.58526-595, support 0.5762 0.5627, resistance 0.5995 0.6012
NZD Daily 21/55/100-DMA

(James Connell is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

• AUD/USD +0.15% Wed after hitting 0.7231 in NY, highest traded since May

• Pair retains strong upside bias, 0.72825 50-month high the short-term target

• RBA Deputy Governor Hauser worried on inflation, board will debate Sep hike

• Futures pricing now implies 71.9% probability RBA will hike 25 bps in Sep

• Iran-backed Houthis strike Saudi cities; U.S.-Iran hostilities continue

• Markets wary U.S. Aug inflation data, PPI due Thur, CPI Fri (poll +0.4% m/m)

• Overnight range 0.7205-31 support 0.6920 0.6866, resistance 0.7277-82 0.7661
AUD Daily 21/55/100-DMA

(James Connell is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

Danske Research previews the US August CPI report due on Friday.

"Friday’s August CPI print will have potentially large market implications. We forecast headline inflation at 0.4% m/m SA, or 3.4% y/y, up from 3.3%, as higher oil prices lifted retail gasoline prices," Danske notes.

'The Fed will focus more on whether underlying inflation continues to trend lower. We expect core inflation at 0.2% m/m SA, or 2.4% y/y, down from 2.5% and in line with consensus. Our forecast includes a small uptick in ‘supercore’ services inflation momentum, which has remained near its pre-pandemic average over recent months. However, for the Fed, an upside surprise in broader services inflation beyond our forecast would be difficult to disregard as just a one-off. Also watch Thursday’s August PPI, which is unusually released before CP, and could therefore carry more market weight than usual," Danske adda.

The euro firmed against most of its peers on Tuesday as short positions were trimmed ahead of Thursday's expected rate hike by the European Central Bank and U.S inflation data later this week.

In geopolitics, oil rose amid concerns about explosions near Iran facilities, while worries over Houthi attacks on Saudi cities subsided. Separately, the Trump administration announced additional Iran-related sanctions.

Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey pushed back on expectations of inevitable rate hikes, while BOE Deputy Governor Dave Ramsden said inflation pressures appear relatively benign.

NY Fed survey showed U.S. inflation expectations were little changed in August, despite rising concerns over jobs and household finances.

DXY remained capped below its 200-day moving average at 99.14, with quarterly-roll activity boosting futures volumes.

The Canadian dollar outperformed its G10 peers, supported by fresh multi-decade highs in commodity indices despite Canada's retaliatory tariffs on U.S. goods taking effect.

EUR/USD edged up amid weakness in U.S. equites and a firmer CNH, but a doji below a nearby 200-DMA at 1.1634 keeps the near-term outlook slightly bearish, unless a rising 21-DMA at 1.1612 supports.

GBP/USD was steady within a 1.3523-1.3562 range, with a neutral near-term outlook below its 21-DMA of 1.3555 ahead of next week's Bank of England meeting.

AUD/USD climbed amid stronger metals and a stronger CNH, but a daily doji signals near-term indecision, with support at 0.7205-0.7220 and broader outlook remaining constructive.

USD/JPY rebounded to 154.43 on short-covering and stronger commodities, with scope to test 154.97 and 155.00 ahead of U.S. CPI, while support lies 153.31 100-WMA ahead of 152.10.

Treasury yields were up about 2 basis points, leaving the 2s-10s curve steady at +40.6bp.

The S&P 500 slipped 0.43%.

WTI oil rose 2.3% to a three-month high.

Gold fell 0.81% and copper gained 1.8%

Heading toward the close: EUR/USD +0.03%, USD/JPY -0.28%, GBP/USD +0.05%, AUD/USD +0.03%, DXY -0.35%, EUR/JPY -0.28%, GBP/JPY -0.29%, AUD/JPY -0.25%.(Editing by Burton Frierson Robert Fullem is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• NY opened near 1.1615 after the pair fell to 1.1608 overnight

• Rally ensued as USD, US yields moved downward

• Upward moves in gold, silver & USD/CNH's drop helped lift EUR/USD

• 1.1634 traded but the pair neared 1.1625 late, was up +0.02% late

• Firmer USD, yields & drop in equities helped push EUR/USD downward

• A daily doji formed and EUR/UDS held below the 200-DMA

• EUR/USD rallied back above the 10- & 21-DMAs which comforted bulls
eurusd

(Christopher Romano is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

ANZ Research previews this week's ECB September policy decision.

"The ECB meets this week for its policy decision, alongside updated staff forecasts. A 25bp rate hike is fully priced, with recent ECB comments suggesting this week’s decision is largely a done deal. ECB member, Gabriel Makhlouf, noted in a 2 September interview that the decision “will not be a surprise”, so we do not expect the rate decision itself to be a major catalyst for the EUR. The focus will instead be on the ECB’s assessment of the inflation outlook and guidance on the policy path beyond September," ANZ notes.

"Against this backdrop, if the ECB maintains a neutral, datadependent tone and refrains from materially upgrading its inflation outlook, markets may scale back some of the additional tightening currently priced beyond September. This could create tactical downside pressure on the EUR in the near term. Overall, we remain constructive on EUR/USD and would view any ECB-induced weakness as an opportunity to add long positions," ANZ adds.

• NY opened near 0.7210 after 0.7205 traded overnight, pair rallied early NY

• Softer US yields , lifts in gold, silver, copper buoyed the pair

• USD/CNH drop toward 6.7060 also contributed to the pair's early lift

• A 4-month high of 0.7231 traded but the pair fell from its high

• Yields, USD firmed while gold, silver, copper traded softer

• AUD/USD neared 0.7220 late, it traded close to flat on the session

• A daily doji formed which suggests investors are a bit indecisive

• Monthly bull hammer, rising monthly RSI are bullish signals however
audusd

(Christopher Romano is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

Credit Agricole CIB Research previews the US August CPI report due on Friday.

"We expect US headline CPI to come out at 3.39% YoY in August, almost unchanged from the 3.36% YoY recorded in July. Our take is in line with the Bloomberg average consensus and what the market prices in (also 3.39%)," CACIB notes.

"We expect core at 0.24% MoM SA, marginally stronger than the 0.22% recorded in July. Our take is 2bp above the 0.22% MoM SA Bloomberg average consensus...The 3M ma annualised core would come out at 1.73% in August, following 1.63% in July and 2.27% in June, but we emphasise that this level is currently abnormally low because of the -0.02% MoM recorded in June," CACIB adds.

USD/JPY's slide from last week's highs near 160.00 showed no signs of abating on Tuesday, breaching 154.00 in Asian trade and extending losses to 152.89.

It's the options market telling the real story, however: Since the September 2-3 breakdown, demand for volatility and downside protection has been relentless, with 150.00 strikes actively sought. One-month implied volatility surged through the late-July intervention high of 10.5, trading as high as 11.4 in Asia — the highest in over a year — while even 1-year expiry vol is participating in the repricing. The skew tells the same story: 1-month 25-delta risk reversals jumped from 1.75 to 2.75, just shy of July's 3.0 peak, while the 3-month tenor has actually eclipsed that high at 2.0, its richest since May 2025. USD/JPY traded volumes are running at double the year-to-date norm, with downside protection demand more than double that at any point since January 2024 — a market caught offside by the scale of the move.

EUR/USD remains the polar opposite, sleepwalking through event risk with implied volatility remaining close to long-term lows. Large option expiries clustered around 1.1600 are helping pin the pair in its recent range, reinforcing the lack of movement even with the ECB and U.S. CPI both due this week.

That lack of conviction runs across G10 FX. Implied vol remains stuck at multi-year lows in almost every major pair bar JPY, and realised vol is often lower still — genuine calm, not mispricing. Positioning reflects the same story: Outright flows are thin, and demand for low-delta, tail-risk strikes has dried up. Risk reversals reinforce it — EUR/USD's 1-month 25-delta briefly reached 0.45 in favour of downside strikes through late August/early September but has already faded back to 0.2, while GBP/USD's equivalent eased from a 0.6 peak to 0.45. Both flirted with a USD-bullish skew and are already unwinding it.

The clearest expression of this malaise is EUR/GBP, where implied volatility is trading at record lows — 3.0 for 1-month, 3.6 for 3-month, 4.75 for 1-year. If options are the market's best guess at future movement, EUR/GBP is currently pricing in very little.

Together, it's a market split in two: JPY in the grip of a genuine, broadening repricing, and the rest of G10 stuck in a holding pattern, aware of the geopolitical and macroeconomic risks but unwilling to commit to a direction just yet.
EUR/USD 25 delta risk reversals-


Benchmark 1-month expiry FXO implied volatility


EUR/USD FXO strike expiries Sept 8-11

(Richard Pace is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

JP Morgan sees USDJPY a sell on rallies into the 1555 zone in the near-term.

"We retain decent length in JPY here but reduced a touch this morning given the distance we have come and the fact we have grazed the 152 handle which caused  so much disappointment back in Q1, would expect rallies back to 155.00/20 to be sold going forward," JPM notes.

"Risk-event- wise the BoJ could be tricky with so much priced in but we think the Fed could add fuel to the fire; 15bp priced is too much in my opinion given Williams and Waller (and Trump!) comments, roll on CPI. As mentioned, 152.10/25 is a sharp double bottom from Q1, through the big big figure of 150 the next target for me is 145.50/00," JPM adds.

Goldman Sachs Research previews this weeks' September ECB policy meeting.

"We expect the Governing Council to hike the policy rate by 25bp this week, as widely expected and fully priced. Investor focus will be on the updated staff projections and President Lagarde's commentary on the policy outlook during the press conference," GS notes.

"We maintain our view that September is more likely than not the last hike of this tightening cycle given our forecast for below-trend H2 growth, modest further core pressures, our forecast for lower energy prices than currently implied by forwards, and no Fed hikes. That said, we now see a low hurdle for a third hike in December if energy prices do not fall from here or inflation firms more notably, especially if the Fed hikes in coming months," GS adds.

• AUD/USD traded 0.7223-0.7205 overnight, was down -0.08% early NY

• US yield , USD/CNH gains helped to weigh down the pair

• Drops in gold, silver, equities also contributed to the pair's slide

• Rally of more than 2.0% in copper helped to limit AUD/USD's downside

• The pair's tight range suggests consolidation of recent gains is possible

• Daily RSI didn't confirm Monday's high, needs to unwind near overbought condition

• Consolidation is a healthy development for the broader up trend

• Rising monthly RSI, Bolli bands & monthly bull hammer are longer-term bull signals

• US August PPI, CPI due later this week might help keep ranges tight
audusd

(Christopher Romano is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

(Repeat with no changes )

• FX option strikes expire at 10am New York/14:00 GMT on Tuesday September 8

• EUR/USD: 1.1560-70 (2.3BLN), 1.1585-90 (1.3BLN), 1.1600-10 (506M), 1.1620-25 (831M), 1.1630-35 (1.3BLN)

• 1.1650 (1.3BLN), 1.1670 (513M), 1.1700 (2.2BLN)

• USD/CHF: 0.8080-85 (273M), 0.8100 (583M). EUR/CHF: 0.9335-40 (390M), 0.9400 (180M)

• GBP/USD: 1.3460-70 (489M), 1.3555-60 (324M). EUR/GBP: 0.8600 (725M)

• AUD/USD: 0.7135 (1.8BLN), 0.7145-50 (880M), 0.7185 (362M), 0.7240 (511M)

• NZD/USD: 0.5810 (603M), 0.5850 (205M), 0.5895-0.5905 (242M)

• USD/CAD: 1.3720 (280M), 1.3785 (506M), 1.3800 (336M), 1.3825 (258M)

• USD/JPY: 151.00 (253M), 153.50 (710M), 154.50 (232M), 155.00 (793M)(Richard Pace is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

Sept 8 (Reuters) - The price of natural gas, which has risen swiftly to a near four-year high since June, could weigh on EUR/USD.

The euro zone imports almost 90% of its natural gas needs, as well as all of its liquefied natural gas (LNG). The United States is the dominant LNG supplier. LNG prices have almost doubled since June.

During the period in which gas prices have surged, EUR/USD rallied from 1.1353 on June 24 to 1.1711 on August 21, before settling near 1.1600 in September. Traders who were short almost €9 billion pared their bearish positions to around €3 billion in the first week of September, leaving them less prepared for a decline that could result from higher gas prices.

Although the price increase following Russia's invasion of Ukraine in 2022 was far greater — causing the euro zone's current account to swing sharply from surplus to deficit — the scale of this year's move is still significant. A Middle East conflict that was expected to last weeks has instead endured for almost seven months, providing sufficient reason to hedge the growing risk that changes in trade and capital flows could seriously undermine the euro.

EURUSD and natural gas

(Jeremy Boulton is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• Yen's rally to seven-month high weighs on dollar ahead of US CPI

• USD/JPY has dropped from 154.31 to 152.89, Tuesday, EBS data shows

• The yen's sudden surge is upsetting the carry trade faithful

• USD/JPY on course to end the week below the broken 154.78 Fibo, that would be bearish

• 154.78 Fibo is a 38.2% retrace of the 139.89 to 163.99 (April to July) rise

• Fin Min Katayama emphasized that Japan and the US remain aligned on FX policy

• BOJ commentary, nudge from Bessent cements Japan Sept rate hike

• USD/JPY and EUR/JPY tend to move in tandem, log correlations are high above +0.5

Daily Chart


Weekly Chart


Correlation Chart

(Martin Miller is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• AUD/USD has traded a 17 pip range thus far Tuesday; 0.7206-0.7223

• 0.7223 is two pips shy of Monday's four-month high

• AUD supported by hawkish guidance from RBA's Hunter

• Markets currently see two-in-three chance of RBA rate hike on Sept 29

• China August iron ore imports up 0.4% vs expected decline

• Iron ore is Australia's single-biggest export earner

AUDUSD

(Robert Howard is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• EUR/USD 1.1623-35 EBS range on Tuesday

• The influential 200-DMA is 1.1634

• Traders have been betting on euro dropping since start July

• Probability of short covering would increase on any close over 200-DMA

• Potential buy signal if 21-DMA at 1.1612 rises over 200-DMA at 1.1634

•
EURUSD

(Jeremy Boulton is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• FX option strikes expire at 10am New York/14:00 GMT on Tuesday September 8

• EUR/USD: 1.1560-70 (2.3BLN), 1.1585-90 (1.3BLN), 1.1600-10 (506M), 1.1620-25 (831M), 1.1630-35 (1.3BLN)

• 1.1650 (1.3BLN), 1.1670 (513M), 1.1700 (2.2BLN)

• USD/CHF: 0.8080-85 (273M), 0.8100 (583M). EUR/CHF: 0.9335-40 (390M), 0.9400 (180M)

• GBP/USD: 1.3460-70 (489M), 1.3555-60 (324M). EUR/GBP: 0.8600 (725M)

• AUD/USD: 0.7135 (1.8BLN), 0.7145-50 (880M), 0.7185 (362M), 0.7240 (511M)

• NZD/USD: 0.5810 (603M), 0.5850 (205M), 0.5895-0.5905 (242M)

• USD/CAD: 1.3720 (280M), 1.3785 (506M), 1.3800 (336M), 1.3825 (258M)

• USD/JPY: 151.00 (253M), 153.50 (710M), 154.50 (232M), 155.00 (793M)

• FX options wrap - USD/JPY roars again, EUR/USD sleepwalks into event risks (Richard Pace is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• EUR/USD doing little in Asia, 1.1623-34 EBS and in stasis

• Holding in tad lower 1.1584-1.1641 range established September 3

• Still capped in area of flat-ish 200-DMA at 1.1634, 100-DMA 1.1561 below

• In middle of now tapering 1.1408-1.1746 weekly Ichimoku cloud

• Massive nearby option expiries to again help contain spot action

• On 1.15 handle total E8.1 bln, 1.1600-25 E1.4 bln, 1.1630-1.1700 E6.4 bln

• EUR/JPY in almost free fall, 179.32 at Asia open to 177.86 EBS so far

• JPY bid broadly across the board as shorts continuing to pare positions

• EUR/JPY lowest since 177.37 Nov 10, 2025, Nov trough 175.75 on 5th

• EUR/GBP 0.8577-87, above 0.8548-71 daily Ichi cloud, below 0.8600 100-DMA

• Option expiries today include 0.8600 E725 mln, some between 0.8535-60

• EUR/CHF quiet, 0.9405-09 EBS, in higher 0.9374-0.9435 range since Sept 2

• Some option expiries today in 0.9335-40 window

• Related comments , , ,

• Also , for more click on [FXBUZ]

EUR/USD:


EUR/USD nearby option expiries this week:


EUR/JPY:

(Haruya Ida is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• Shares of Barton Gold rise 4.4% to A$1.18, their highest level since March 5

• Gold developer on track for best day since August 28, if gains hold

• Co receives approval of its environmental Scoping Report for its Tunkillia gold project from Department for Energy and Mining South Australia

• The report is prepared as part of the environmental approval process for a proposed mine or mining expansion

• Stock down 10.6% YTD

(Reporting by Jasmeen Ara Shaikh in Bengaluru)

• AUD/USD flat Tue, trading subdued in run-off from U.S. Labor Day holiday

• Westpac Sep consumer sentiment index -5.2%, interest rates & fuel impacting

• RBA officials Sarah Hunter and Andrew Hauser speaking in Sydney later Tue

• AUD targeting 0.72825 50-month high, break above opens topside toward 0.7661

• Iran warns U.S. of retaliatory attacks on energy infrastructure in the Gulf

• U.S. Aug PPI due Thur (poll +0.4% m/m) followed by CPI Fri (poll +0.4% m/m)

• Range Asia 0.72156-23 support 0.6920 0.6866, resistance 0.7277-82 0.7661
AUD Daily 21/55/100-DMA

(James Connell is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)