• AUD/USD -1.7% wtd as sentiment sours despite U.S.-Iran peace progress

• Commodities lower across the board: Copper -2.6%, Gold -2.7%, WTI -4.6%

• AU May employment data due Thur, Reuters poll: +30k jobs, 4.4% unemployment

• RBA's Hauser welcomes lower oil prices but says inflation still far too high

• AUD targeting 0.6834 support, break below opens door for fall toward 0.6660

• Overnight range 0.6883-0.6906, support 0.6834 0.6660, resistance 0.7089
AUD Weekly 52-WMA

(James Connell is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

The dollar held broad, haven-linked gains on Wednesday as a bull flattening of the yield curve coincided with falling commodity prices, soft U.S. housing data and uncertainty over progress in U.S.-Iran talks.

Metals extended losses on China demand concerns and taught Fed policy, while WTI crude slipped below $70/bbl on increased Hormuz traffic. U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent supported scaling back Fed guidance but urged openness on inflation risks while adding that maintaining dollar dominance is essential. U.S. Energy Secretary Chris Wright said 20 million barrels of crude oil exited the Strait of Hormuz in the past 24 hours, with flows still disrupted by Iranian mines but expected to continue. U.S. President Donald Trump said Iran agreed to no tolls for Hormuz transit, while Secretary of State Marco Rubio noted Iran talks will resume later this month. Israel’s defense minister said troops will stay in southern Lebanon, a hurdle for Iran-U.S. peace talks. In data, U.S. new home sales fell for a second straight month, declining 7.3% in May. The Bank of Canada's governing council agreed to keep its monetary policy nimble to respond to new U.S. trade restrictions, the impact of energy prices, or both playing out at the same time, according to the minutes of its meeting.

The dollar index held its gains after hitting a new one-year high beyond an expanding Bollinger Band, with momentum pushing it deeper into overbought territory. Dollar call buying underpinned though a dip in futures open interest suggest longs may be getting stretched. Renewed weakness in the Chinese yuan on PBOC rate cut speculation weighed on metal prices and supported the dollar. EUR/USD fell to a one-year low of 1.1325 before settling, though bearish momentum indicators and a completed head-and-shoulders top signal further downside risk. GBP/USD dipped below its lower Bollinger to a seven-month low of 1.3140, with bearish momentum on Fed-BoE divergence signaling risks toward 1.3100. USD/JPY rose on haven dollar demand and quarter-end flows, with a series of higher lows offering an upside bias toward the 161.96 2024 high despite overbought conditions and intervention risks. AUD/USD slipped as risk sentiment deteriorated and metal prices fell, with bearish position below 0.70 and its 10-day moving average signaling downside bias.

Treasury yields were down 6 to 9 basis points as the curve bull flattened. The 2s-10s curve fell about 3 basis points to +25.8bp.

The S&P 500 fell 0.27% as tech and energy shares weighed. WTI oil dropped 4%, briefly dipping below $70/bbl as gains since the Iran war outbreak have been almost entirely erased.

Gold fell 3%, silver tumbled 8% and copper slid 3% amid dollar gains and a weaker CNH.

Heading toward the close: EUR/USD -0.22%, USD/JPY +0.12%, GBP/USD -0.30%, AUD/USD -0.40%, DXY +0.20%, EUR/JPY -0.12%, GBP/JPY -0.21%, AUD/JPY -0.29%.(Editing by Burton Frierson Robert Fullem is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• NY opened near 0.6890 after 0.6885 traded in Europe's morning, the pair then lifted

• Abatement of USD buying & rally in equities helped the pair traded 0.6906

• The rally stalled though as risk sentiment soured & USD/CNH rallied to 6.8195

• Equities turned lower & gold, silver and copper all suffered significant drops

• AUD/USD fell back toward the overnight low, it traded down -0.43% in NY's afternoon

• Techs are bearish; RSIs indicate downward momentum, pair trades below 10- & 21-DMAs
audusd


(Christopher Romano is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

Credit Agricole CIB Research maintains a bullish bias on the USD in the near-term.

"Recent client discussions have signalled that a growing number of FX investors have been turning bullish on the USD. Our positioning data has further suggested that the USD - already the biggest long in the FX market - has continued to attract buying interest in recent days. In that, most market participants agree that the recent USD gains are very consistent with the predictions of the "USD-smile" market template that links USD outperformance with (1) higher US rates; and (2) spikes in risk aversion," CACIB notes.

"In particular, the Fed's hawkish hold in June has triggered tightening of global financial conditions that, in turn, has fuelled global risk aversion. The high-yielding, safe-haven King USD should continue to smile in the near term, as a result," CACIB adds.

• Ether rallied to 1687.29 earlier in the session, sellers then emerged, Ether then turned lower

• It then struck a 3-1/2-week low of 1567.46 in NY, traded down -5.48% as of this writing

• Broad-based USD buying weighed; USD/CNH's rally to 6.8195 reinforced the USD bid

• Sharp drops in gold, silver & equities turning lower helped send riskier assets like Ether down

• Ether bears are closer to taking greater control as the June 6 daily low is approaching

• Techs are bearish; daily inverted hammer formed & daily, monthly RSIs indicate downward momentum

• Break of the June 6 low brings the 2025 yearly low struck in April at 1387.02 into focus
eth


(Christopher Romano is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

Bank of America Global Research discusses AUD/USD outlook and notes that the pair is currently undervalued.

"Intensifying headwinds have dragged AUD/USD below 0.70 and net positioning has moved short for the first time since January (Exhibit 2). 0.6850 is a key line in the sand: the 200-day moving average and the recent low during a brief equity sell-off in March. We see important headwinds (rate differentials, equity risk sentiment, strong USD) but see the outlook for other drivers as more bullish than the market (China consumer spending, demand for industrial metals). Nonetheless, our model suggests fair value is around 0.71, above the spot rate (0.6920)," BofA notes.

'In the near term, risks skew to the upside ahead of tomorrow's jobs report. Last month's report was unusually weak, but one-off factors may have weighed on employment. Our economists think the RBA is likely to remain concerned about sticky core inflation after today's report even if oil prices remain around current levels. Bottom line: we are likely stuck in a range, which would be good for collecting carry; we remain buyers on dips," BofA adds.

(Repeats with no changes)

June 24 (Reuters) -

• FX options expire at 10-am New York/1400 GMT on Wednesday 24 June

• EUR/USD: 1.1300 (550M), 1.1350-55 (1.1BLN), 1.1360-65 (576M)

• 1.1400-05 (1.1BLN), 1.1415-25 (775M), 1.1450 (2.7BLN), 1.1465-70 (518M)

• 1.1475-80 (792M), 1.1490-95 (483M), 1.1500-10 (14.93BLN)(Peter Stoneham is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

JP Morgan Research discusses the summary of opinions from the BoJ's June meeting.

"The summary of opinions from the BoJ's June meeting confirmed the Board's hawkish bias and helped justify the decision to hike. Looking ahead, many members appeared to support continuing rate hikes, but relatively few commented on the pace or specific timing of further moves. That said, two members argued for accelerating the hiking pace," JPM notes.

"Overall, the tone suggests that the Board sees downside risks to domestic and global growth receding, while concerns about upside inflation risks are intensifying. We continue to expect the next rate hike to come in October, driven by yen depreciation and ongoing inflationary pressures," JPM adds.

Morgan Stanley Research prefers hedging further USD runs via short GBP/USD expressions over short EUR/USD exposure.

"For investors looking to hedge for a potential further USD run, we think GBP/USD shorts are the most attractive expression... On the whole, we think consensus is generally less constructive on European currencies. In risk-on periods, we think short EUR/ EM and short EUR versus cyclical G10 currencies (e.g., EUR/AUD) have been popular. If investors pivot from cyclical risk-on currencies toward a safer haven USD, EUR and GBP are likely to be prime candidates to express this view," MS notes.

"We would prefer GBP/USD over EUR/USD because, in the near term, we think there remains scope for investors to add GBP-negative risk premium. For more on our GBP cautious view, see here," MS adds.

June 24 (Reuters) - Intervention risk and stretched market positioning remain the main complications in mapping the current USD/JPY rally. Any official move to support the yen could trigger a sharp dollar reversal, limiting the usefulness of conventional upside targets.

That said, if USD/JPY is allowed to extend higher, Fibonacci projection analysis offers a framework for identifying potential resistance levels above 162.00. The calculation is based on three reference points: a significant swing low, a swing high and the subsequent corrective pullback. For USD/JPY, those levels are the 155.00 low from May 6, the 161.93 high from June 22 and a pullback low at 161.27-EBS pricing.

Using that structure, the first upside marker is 162.88, the 23.6% Fibonacci projection and an initial level to watch if USD/JPY clears the 162.00 area. Further targets come in at 163.88 and 164.70, corresponding to the 38.2% and 50% projection levels, respectively. A full measured move, based on a 100% projection of the May–June advance from the corrective low, would point to 168.14.
USD/JPY Daily Chart:


(Peter Stoneham is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• U.S.-listed shares of gold miners fall premarket, as bullion prices slip for second consecutive session [GOL/]

• Spot gold down 1.1% at $4,069.81/ounce, after touching its lowest level since June 11

• Prices pressured by a stronger U.S. dollar and expectations of higher interest rates, while investors monitor progress in U.S.-Iran peace talks

• Top miners Newmont and Barrick Mining

fall 1.9% and ~1%, respectively

• South African miners Gold Fields , AngloGold Ashanti , Harmony Gold and Sibanye Stillwater

lose between 2.7% and 4.1%

• Canadian miners: Agnico Eagle Mines dips 1.3%; Kinross Gold falls 1%

(Reporting by Pooja Menon in Bengaluru)

• EUR/USD lurches lower to notch a fresh 13-month low at 1.1338

• USD strength remains the dominant driver, though positioning looks increasingly stretched

• Momentum signals flashing oversold for EUR/USD - RSI at 26, lowest since mid-March

• Fed hike now fully priced for September, lowering the bar for any dovish repricing surprise

• Near-term flow dynamics still USD supportive (corporate month-end), leaving scope for further upside

• That said, risk-reward is beginning to skew toward a tactical USD pullback from here

• Key levels: Support - 1.1291 (100WMA), 1.1200. Resistance - 1.1392-1.1409, 1.1500
EURUSD weekly chart


EURUSD daily chart


Justin McQueen is a Reuters market analyst. (The views expressed are his own). ((Email: ))

• EUR/GBP drops to 0.8603, its lowest level since August 2025

• Drop influenced by EUR/USD fall to an EBS 13-month low of 1.1338

• GBP/USD simultaneously falls to 1.3171, its lowest level since Friday

• 0.8598 was EUR/GBP low in August 2025. Tuesday low was 0.8615

• Starmer ally Jones backs Burnham after being reassured on economic plans

• Burnham is set to replace Starmer as Britain's prime minister on July 17

EURGBP


(Robert Howard is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• AUD/USD settles down to 0.6912 but largely unchanged Tues

• Still on path to test 200 DMA support currently at 0.6856

• Dollar strength persists, amid wobbly Asia stocks; ASX +0.3%

• UST yields ebb, but market's hawkish view on Fed to linger

• RBA's Hauser defends earlier rate hikes, sees work to be done

• Says inflation still too high, casts doubt on Iran peace
AUD


(Ewen Chew is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

• FX options expire at 10-am New York/1400 GMT on Wednesday 24 June

• EUR/USD: 1.1300 (550M), 1.1350-55 (1.1BLN), 1.1360-65 (576M)

• 1.1400-05 (1.1BLN), 1.1415-25 (775M), 1.1450 (2.7BLN), 1.1465-70 (518M)

• 1.1475-80 (792M), 1.1490-95 (483M), 1.1500-10 (14.93BLN)(Peter Stoneham is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• Shares of Australia's Everest Metals Corp rise as much as 4.8% to A$0.11, its highest point since June 18

• The gold-silver developer says it finds further high-grade gold from drilling at its Mt Dimer Taipan Gold Project in Australia

• "The drilling has generated valuable data that will support ongoing mine planning, ore scheduling and the upcoming Mineral Resource update," says executive chairman, CEO of EMC, Mark Caruso

• Despite moves, stock down 12.5%, YTD

(Reporting by Aamir Sheik Khalid in Bengaluru)

• Shares of Australia's True North Copper rise as much as 10.8% to A$0.41, their biggest intraday pct gain since May 21

• The copper explorer says it is advancing Pre-Feasibility Study for its Cloncurry Copper Project in Australia

• Says integration of recently acquired Mongoose Resource and adjacent Taipan copper deposit has potential to enhance project scale, mining operations, including others

• Says results slated for Q4 2026

• Despite moves, stock down 24.2% YTD
(Reporting by Aamir Sheik Khalid in Bengaluru)

• AUD/USD +0.1% Wed after trimmed mean CPI rises to 3.6% y/y (poll 3.5%)

• Result harbours concern for RBA with inflation not yet under control

• AU May CPI -0.7% m/m, 4.0% y/y (poll consensus -0.4%, +4.3% respectively)

• USD index remains elevated near 13-month highs as FFR hike expectations grow

• RBA Deputy Governor Andrew Hauser speaking in Melbourne later Wed

• AU May employment data due Thur, Reuters poll: +30k jobs, 4.4% unemployment

• Range Asia 0.69105-215, support 0.6834 0.6660, resistance 0.7089 0.7200
DXY Daily 55-DMA


AUD Daily 55-DMA

(James Connell is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

• Australian gold stocks fall as much as 2.1% to hit their lowest level since June 15

• Losses weigh on broader mining sub-index , down 0.8%

• Gold prices slipped on Tuesday after the U.S. dollar hit a one-year high on increased hopes of a Federal Reserve rate hike [GOL/]

• Evolution Mining falls as much as 1.1%, Resolute Mining drops as much as 3.2% to hit its lowest level since June 12

• AXGD down 13.5% YTD
(Reporting by Nichiket Sunil in Bengaluru)

• USD bid across the board, safe haven flows tipped on Wall Street falls

• Geopolitical concerns still too, US rates off though on flows from stocks

• USD/JPY in familiar place, new equilibrium on 161, Asia 161.55-61 EBS

• Defensive offers likely still in place ahead of large 162.00 option KOs

• Some exporter offers seen mixed in topside

• Threat of Japan FX intervention too, surprising no action yet.

• With yen shorts even larger now, market may be ripe for a correction

• Latest IMM CTA data show yen shorts up to 150,132 contracts as of June 16

• Option expiries today likely USD/JPY supportive, massive $1.4 bln 161.20-25

• More trail down into the 159 handle, gravitation pull from 161.50 $708 mln?

• Japanese importer buys on dips, foreign investors stock buy hedges too?

• Related comments , , ,

• Also , on IMM CTAs , US economy

• US markets , , ,
USD/JPY:

(Haruya Ida is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• NZD/USD -0.9% from Tue 0.5717 high as tech stock rout dents risk appetite

• Pair looks set to extend lower after breaking through key 0.5680 support

• Broad USD index continues to strengthen, makes fresh 101.43 13-month high

• FFR rate hike bets increasing as Fed officials swing more hawkish

• U.S. Senate advanced legislation requiring Trump to end Iran military action

• RBNZ Governor Breman will attend the annual closed-door BIS conference Fri

• Range NZ 0.56657-69, support 5580, resistance 0.5990-95 0.6012 0.6093
NZD Daily 55-DMA

(James Connell is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

Credit Agricole CIB Research summarizes the latest reading from its G10 positioning model.

"The USD remains the biggest long in the G10 FX at present and saw some buying interest last week, predominantly driven by Tactical flows. Our FX flow data points at banks inflows as well as corporates, hedge funds and real money investors outflows," CACIB notes.

"The NZD remains the largest short in the G10 FX at present and faced mild selling interest last week, predominantly driven by IMM flows. Our FX flow data points at banks, hedge funds and real money investors inflows as well as corporates outflows," CACIB adds.

• AUD/USD -1.2% late Tue as USD index reaches fresh 101.43 13-month high

• AUD targeting 0.6834 support as downside momentum builds, data will be key

• AU May CPI update due Wed (Reuters poll consensus -0.4% m/m, +4.3% y/y)

• RBA Deputy Governor Andrew Hauser speaking in Melbourne later Wed

• AU May employment data due Thur, Reuters poll: +30k jobs, 4.4% unemployment

• Risk sentiment in retreat: COMEX Copper -3.7%, Gold -1.9% and equities lower

• AUD targeting 0.6834 support as downside momentum builds, data will be key

• Overnight range 0.6908-62, support 0.6834 0.6660, resistance 0.7089 0.7200
AUD Daily 55-DMA


DXY Daily 55-DMA

(James Connell is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

• NY opened near 1.1405 after 1.1439 traded overnight, the pair's slide extended

• Risk-off sentiment had investors seeking out the safety of the USD

• Gold , silver & equities fell to reinforce the bid for USD

• EUR/JPY drop toward 183.80, USD/CNH rally contributed to EUR/USD's fall

• EUR/USD hit a 1-year low of 1.1375, traded down -0.43% in NY's afternoon

• Bearish signs increased after neckline of head & shoulders on monthly chart broke

• Falling daily, monthly RSIs & pair's hold below 10- & 21-DMAs reinforced bear signs
eurusd


(Christopher Romano is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)