AUD/USD's rally off May's low is in jeopardy, and the broader bear trend might soon resume.
The latest RBA minutes show ongoing concerns regarding inflation and wages, while also reiterating that any rate hike is a long way off.
EM currency weakness versus the greenback adds weight to AUD/USD as AUD remains a proxy for emerging market currencies.
U.S. Treasury yields rallied after upward revisions to March retail sales, sending the greenback higher. Limited pullback in Treasury yields suggest the U.S. dollar's gains should hold and then resume as net-short positions will be reduced.
AUD/USD's slide from the May 11 high extended below the May 10 low but stalled short of the 2018 low.
AUD/USD bulls lean on that low now and look to Australian Q1 wage price data due in Sydney's Wednesday session.
Forecasts call for 0.6 percent q/q and 2.1 percent y/y.
An as-forecast or below-forecast result could cause AUD/USD to remain heavy and test 2018's low.
A break of that low would put the longer-term bear trend back on track and spur tests of the June and May 2017 lows.
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