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Sept 10 (Reuters) - USD/JPY may be set for a "new normal" 150-155 trading range, notwithstanding impending U.S. economic data, including the producer and consumer price indices due Thursday and Friday, and next week's policy announcements from the U.S. Federal Open Market Committee and Bank of Japan.
The Reuters poll forecasts 5.3% year-on-year rise in PPI against 4.7% in July and an unchanged CPI reading at 3.4% with core prices up 2.4% against 2.5% in July. USD/JPY is trading on a 153 handle ahead of these releases, and any volatility stemming from the data could be contained to two-yen or at most three-yen moves on either side of current levels.
Fed expectations will likely be swayed by these U.S. data releases. Currently, most economists polled expect the Fed to hold rates steady this year but a rising number see room for a possible hike .
For the BOJ, a 25 basis-point policy rate hike to 1.25% on September 18 has been discounted . Though some suggest the BOJ could hike by 50 bps, the most likely outcome appears to be another 25 bps hike in December. Totan Research/ICAP shows a 98% probability of a hike this month and 61% in December.
Recent flows suggest Japanese exporters will be good sellers on any USD/JPY rallies, effectively capping the upside alongside longer-term net yen shorts, including foreign holders of Japanese stocks with dynamic currency hedges. Most exporters are assuming 155+ in budgets for the fiscal year ending in March, and they will be keen to average out forward sales above this level.
In options, 150 JPY calls/USD puts have been in good demand, and there are reports of interest in reverse knock-outs and of exporter barriers at 150.00 .
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(Haruya Ida is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own. Editing by Sonali Desai)