• USD/JPY marginally softer having stalled ahead of the cycle high (162.84)

• FOMC minutes reinforce June’s hawkish tilt

• A few officials flagged case for a rate hike - latest geo tensions to emboldens hawks at the margin

• In the absence of MoF intervention, downside in USD/JPY expected to remain limited near-term

• In turn, absent of MoF action, USD/JPY dips are likely to remain shallow in the short-run

• Higher oil trajectory poses an additional headwind for JPY via terms-of-trade channel

• Current backdrop supports topside, opening door for retest of cycle high
USDJPY hourly chart


Justin McQueen is a Reuters market analyst. (The views expressed are his own). ((Email: ))