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By Jeremy Boulton  —  Feb 17 - 03:05 AM
  • Number of EUR/USD shorts has almost doubled in 3 weeks

  • Jan 21 traders short EUR 6bln. Feb 11 short EUR 10.8bln and EUR lower since

  • Biggest short position in 8 months. Conditions should weigh EUR nL1N2AH03V

  • Largest short position in 2019 was EUR 13.6bln yet that's not big

  • In 2016 number short reached EUR 17.5bln. 2015 22bln. 2014 28bln

  • EUR/USD traded lower in all of those years than has traded so far in 2020

EURUSD and shorts: Click here

Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By Peter Stoneham  —  Feb 17 - 02:40 AM
  • More than half of w/e Feb 7 322-point drop retraced last week

  • However, recovery now stalling at 55DMA and just below Frid's 1.3063 peak

  • Bulls will note that 14-day momentum has finally flipped to positive

  • Gain consolidation fighting the bulls' corner too

  • Daily cloud twists Feb 19 and 21 at 1.4143-45 could also attract

  • 10DMA, 1.2978, pivotal with a break below firing up the bear engines again

GBP/USD Trader:

GBP/USD Daily Chart: Click here

Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By Andrew M Spencer  —  Feb 16 - 10:20 PM
  • +0.15% with modest flow, in response to China stimulus measures nB9N282020

  • Overall outlook for Asian growth subdued amid coronavirus fears nL4N2AG0US

  • USD continues to trend higher, capping the AUD at presents

  • Charts show momentum studies flat lining, 5, 10 & 21 DMAs conflict

  • Neutral setup suggests that choppy consolidation in February's can extend

  • Last week's 0.6750 top then February 0.6774 high first resistance

  • Thursday's 0.6707 low then last week's 0.6657 base initial support

aud 2 feb 17 Click here

Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By Andrew M Spencer  —  Feb 16 - 10:10 PM
  • Flat in a 1.3035-1.3053 range with only occasional interest

  • EUR/GBP traded at 0.8305-10 with 0.8300-10 675M strikes a magnet

  • UK shoppers face pain without smooth Brexit trade deal - BRC nL8N2AE5R3

  • UK property asking prices rise again, close to new high - Rightmove

  • Charts, momentum studies, 5, 10 & 21 DMAs conflict - neutral setup

  • 1.2878-1.3178 21 day Bolli bands flat line, likely define a broad range

  • NY 1.3001 NY low and 1.3063 London high initial support-resistance

  • EU response to UK Brexit negotiator Frost's speech may be key nL1N2AH00Y

gbp2 feb 17 Click here

Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By Andrew M Spencer  —  Feb 16 - 05:30 PM
  • +0.1% after recording a 10th lower daily low at 1.0817 in early trading

  • China says new cases of the coronavirus slow - modest risk on nL4N2AG014

  • Macron opens door to North Macedonia, Albania joining the EU nL8N2AF094

  • Plastics tax, carbon-trading cash could cover EU's Brexit gap nL8N2AE5T0

  • Charts, daily and weekly 5, 10 & 21 MAs head lower - trending setup

  • 1.0570 April 2017, and 1.0494 February low, then 1.0340 2017 base support

  • 1.0818 falling 21 day Bolli band suggests selling strength not breaks

  • 1.0825-30 230M strikes & 1.0861 5DMA that has capped, support-resistance

eur feb 17 Click here

Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By Krishna K  —  Feb 16 - 04:15 PM
  • USD/JPY tad higher in early Asia, China says rate of new COVID-19 cases slow

  • Controls begin to show results-China Health Commission spokesmannL4N2AG014

  • May boost risk mood in Asia but U.S. holiday Mon to dampen trading activity

  • Japan GDP data due Mon, policymakers brace for Q4 GDP slump nL4N2AE0F3

  • FX options not yet convinced USD/JPY has legs nL1N2AE072

  • Resistance 110.10, 110.30, support 109.50-60, 109.30; EUR/JPY support 118.55

World stocks have rebounded: Click here

Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By Krishna K  —  Feb 16 - 03:10 PM
  • AUD/USD opens a touch higher, China says rate of new coronavirus cases slow

  • China claims efforts to halt spread of COVID-19 bearing fruit nL4N2AG014

  • AUD downside limited by steady RBA; upside capped by AXJ currency weakness

  • Focus turns to local events; minutes of RBA Feb meeting due Tuesday

  • Jan employment data due Thursday, could shape c.bank policy expectations

  • Support 0.6703-08, 0.6680, resistance 0.6745-50; U.S. markets closed Monday

Under China's lockdown, millions have nowhere to go IMG: Click here

Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By eFXdata  —  Feb 14 - 01:00 PM

Danske Research discusses USD/JPY outlook and continues to see the pair trading in 108-110 range in the near-term. 

"We continue to expect 112 in 6M and 12M (unchanged), which reflects our view of a strong USD and an expectation that we will not see a worsening in US data but rather a (mild) improvement. EUR/JPY has started to struggle in recent month(s), driven primarily on the back of a declining EUR. This may indeed continue to be the case in the coming months," Danske notes. 

"Near term, we see USD/JPY as trading in 108-110 range," Fanske adds. 



Danske Research/Market Commentary
By Randolph Donney  —  Feb 14 - 01:55 PM

COMMENT identifier removed from headline

  • Weak US sales data nL1N2AE0H7 only cushioning EUR/USD's fall

  • EZ and Germany's Q4 Q/Q GDP at 0.1% and 0% compares t0 +2.1% in US

  • Also concern EZ is more exposed to China virus economic fallout than US

  • But if today's 1.0827 low holds Monday, an oversold bounce is doable

  • That bounce would likely run into good supply at 1.0925-30 nL1N2AE0KU

  • At the moment, today's range is wholly below 2019's 1.0879 low

  • A weekly close below 76.4% of the 2016-18 rally at 1.0863 targets 1.0340

  • A price gap from April 2017 between 1.0821 & 1.0778 to be filled on the way

Chart: Click here

Chart: Click here

Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By Paul Spirgel  —  Feb 14 - 01:20 PM
  • AUD/USD buoyed in early NY on sideways US retail sales data {nLNSEDEGI5]

  • AUD/USD ends NY 0.6714 -0.08%, Friday range 0.6732-0.6709

  • Recent AUD buyers lighten ahead of long US holiday weekend

  • Pair hovers near 10-DMA support by 0.6715, below eyes 2020 low 0.6657

  • Bull case weak below 0.6845, 50% Fib of 0.7032-0.6657 & multiple DMA area

  • Steady RBA and reduced coronvirus-related growth fears supports AUD rise

AUD Chart: Click here

Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By eFXdata  —  Feb 14 - 11:20 AM

NAB discusses GBP/AUD technical outlook and adopts a bullish bias in the medium-term.

"The uptrend structure in play since 2016 has not been impacted in any way by the recent downward correction. The impulsive January uptrend broke above the daily Bollinger band on consecutive days. Corrections from such breakouts often hold the 20-day MA before re-asserting their trend...Awaiting renewed positive ST momentum," NAB notes. 

"We anticipate the renewed uptrend bias retesting recent highs at 1.9730/60 in the coming weeks. A monthly close above 1.9738 will set up a likely challenge of LT trend resistance at 1.9950+,/' NAB adds. 


NAB Research/Market Commentary
By Paul Spirgel  —  Feb 14 - 11:05 AM

Aussie bulls are enjoying this week's reprieve that lifted AUD/USD Monday's near-11-year low of 0.6657, with the help of recent less-dovish comments by RBA Governor Lowe nS9N28T01S, but it's still unclear whether this relief is just transitory.Diminished fears about economic effects of the coronavirus have supported AUD/USD's recovery, which is consolidating near 10-DMA support by 0.6716. Fears of pan-Asia and global growth disruptions have indeed driven AUD/USD weakness, as evidenced by its drop from mid-January highs by 0.6934 to current levels.
The recent yaw surrounding the number of coronavirus infections and fatalities hints at further volatility as markets assess the implications of the outbreak.
Talk of a steady RBA in the face of uncertain growth prospects removes a significant obstacle for AUD/USD gains, but lingering global growth uncertainties, in addition to the coronavirus, may still weigh on AUD/USD.
Bulls need a close above 0.6746, the 23.6% Fibo of 0.7032-0.6657 to gain momentum.
With Bollis and DMAs pointing lower, bears remain in control under the 0.6829-56 range, which includes multiple daily moving averages and the 50% Fibo of 0.7032-0.6657 at 0.6845.

AUD Chart: Click here

Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By eFXdata  —  Feb 14 - 10:01 AM

Bank of America Global Research discusses EUR/USD technical outlook and flags a scope for a bounce towards 1.10 in the near-term, while points to 1.05 as a potential medium-term target.

"EUR/USD: Bear channel and downtrend remains In our 2020 FICC Technicals year ahead report we presented a bearish EUR/USD bias . Late December and January price action put our view at risk due to some technical breaks and signals. But EUR/USD never confirmed these signals by passing the January litmus test. Rather it resumed its decline," BofA notes. 

"In the short term, this decline is oversold and may bounce to +/-1.10. However medium term technicals suggest the French election gap will be filled (Chart 33). It is also possible a 35 year old trend line in the 1.05s is tested. The log scale trend line was broken in September 2019," BofA adds. 


BofA Global Research
By eFXdata  —  Feb 14 - 08:20 AM

UOB Research discusses EUR/USD technical outlook and still flags a scope for touching 1.0810 in the near-term but warns from abrupt spikes given prices severe oversold conditions. 

"EUR subsequently registered a ‘lower low’ for nine straight days as it touched 1.0832 before ending the day at 1.0840 (-0.28%). From here, a breach of 1.0810 would not be surprising but in view of the severely oversold conditions, the next support at 1.0770 could be out of reach.

"All in, EUR is expected to stay on the back foot unless it can move back above 1.0905 (‘strong resistance’ level was at 1.0950 yesterday)," UOB adds. 

UOB Research/Market Commentary
By Richard Pace  —  Feb 14 - 07:00 AM
  • Market waiting for Friday's US retail sales, Ind prod and Mich sentiment

  • A strong US retail sales number could fuel EUR/USD weakness nL1N2AE05J

  • Break-even for overnight (Mon) expiry options show spot FX expectations

  • Not betting on big reaction - EUR/USD straddle 28 pips in either direction

  • As leveraged bet on downside- EUR put leg just 14 pips to break-even

  • USD/JPY straddle is 30 pips, AUD/USD 28 pips and GBP/USD 52 pips

  • GBP is higher as realised volatility out-performs it's peers nL1N2AE04D

US data calendar: Click here

Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By Rob Howard  —  Feb 14 - 05:55 AM
  • Cable retreats to 1.3020 after failing to break 1.3069 (Thursday 1-week top)

  • 1.3063 = early Ldn high nL1N2AE04B. Profit-take flow kicked in after fail

  • EUR/GBP up to eye 0.8333 after threatening 0.8296 early Europe nL1N2AE04H

  • Bids may emerge by 1.3000 (former resistance level) if GBP/USD extends south

  • Cable vaulted 1.3000 after Sunak was appointed UK finance minister Thursday

  • See: nL8N2AD6O9. U.S. Jan retail sales data due 1330GMT, +0.3% MM f/c

GBPUSD: Click here

Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By Martin Miller  —  Feb 14 - 04:20 AM
  • USD/JPY dips will likely be propped by the 109.45 Fibo

  • 109.45 Fibo is a 38.2% retrace of the 108.31 to 110.15 (Jan to Feb) rise

  • Overall scope is for an eventual break through the 110.30 2020 peak

  • That would unmask 110.53 Fibo, 76.4% of 112.40 to 104.46 (Apr to Aug) drop

  • Our bid is at 109.55 which is ahead of the aforementioned 109.45 Fibo

  • EUR/JPY sees 118.87-119.09. Prev nL1N2AD068. USD/JPY Trader TGM2336

  • EUR/USD on life support as spot teeters under major Fibo nL1N2AE044

Daily Ichimoku Chart: Click here

Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By Jeremy Boulton  —  Feb 14 - 03:05 AM

EUR/USD traders have been buying this year and then watching the pair fall, leaving them badly positioned for the downside break that has unfolded nL1N2AE041.
That has significantly increased the chance of a steeper sustained decline.
Traders were misled twice.
First, the year-end flow triggered a rather big rally from 1.0981 to 1.1240 between Dec.
24-31 -- from the base of the range then to just above its peak.
For a time, speculation about the end of Swiss National Bank intervention led to heavy selling of USD/CHF.
EUR/USD traders interpreted that as continuation of the year-end rally.
They were wrong.
As is so often the case, year-end flows were one-off.
EUR/USD topped in early January and fell.
It took weeks for traders to reestablish the positions they began with.
A week after they achieved that status quo, EUR/USD has broken lower.
Traders are doubtless shorter, but at worse levels.
Near-record-low vols suggest option traders are poorly positioned and economists think EUR/USD is going up nL4N2A42BQ

EUR/USD: Click here

Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By Richard Pace  —  Feb 14 - 02:35 AM
  • As expected - 1.0850 barrier break fueled option market repricing

  • Risk reversals erased last of any EUR call vol premium out to 3-months

  • 1-month risk reversals now 0.2 EUR puts over calls - high since September

  • Implied vols higher - 1-month now 1.0 vol above recent and record lows

  • Even 1-year vol is 0.35 above its 4.95 record base now

  • More barriers expected 1.0825-1.0800, lack of bounce leaves them at risk

  • Big vanilla option expiries nearby Friday nL1N2AE03V

  • Related comment nL1N2AD1AI


EUR/USD risk reversals: Click here

Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By John Noonan  —  Feb 13 - 10:15 PM
  • EUR/USD opened at 1.0844 and drifted down to 1.0827 before finding buyers

  • Heading into the afternoon it is trading around 1.0835 with low volumes

  • EUR/USD technically poised to move a lot lower after close below 1.0860 nL4N2AD5EH

  • EZ and German GDP out today followed by US retail sales and IP

  • If data continues to contrast EZ and US economies, it will weigh on EUR/USD

  • Trend lower is strong, so selling rallies the preferred strategy

eur/usd Click here

eur/usd Click here

Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
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