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CIBC Research discusses today's US August jobs report.
"The US labor market sprung back to life in August. Total non-farm payroll employment increased by 162K in August, beating consensus expectations of 55K. July’s contraction was revised up to 21K. The June and July combined revision was +55K. The unemployment rate held steady at 4.1% as participation increased. The participation rate ticked up to 61.6% after two consecutive monthly declines, led by a large jump in participation rate in youth while prime-age held steady. Job growth was led by food services and drinking places and local government education (which largely reversed a July decline). The information industry lost 23K jobs, driven by cuts in computing infrastructure/data processing. Average hourly earnings rose 0.3% m/m in August but year-over-year earnings declined from 3.2% to 3.1%. Although the unemployment rate remained at 4.1% in August, it shows a small rebound in second decimal (July 4.09% to 4.14% in August)," CIBC notes.
"Although today’s payroll job gains were higher than expected, the unemployment rate was essentially unchanged and wage growth kept decelerating on an annual basis. That is still roughly consistent with the stable labour market described in the FOMC minutes in July. That means the decisive data point for the upcoming FOMC meeting later this month will come from the August CPI report next Friday. If that report comes in largely in line with no pick up in core CPI, that will likely provide the go-ahead for many voting members waiting on confirmation of signs of disinflation to vote for a hold," CIBC adds.